Good Game/Bad Game: A scouting exercise for Patrick Baldwin Jr.
What can we learn from Patrick Baldwin Jr. by watching a good game and bad game of his?
Although I am an obsessive Warriors fan, I rarely watch college basketball. I find the nationalistic impulses that determine allegiance uncomfortable at the NBA level but college basketball feels ickier because the product — teenagers that aspire to play professionally — is unpaid. The few times I have found myself watching college basketball, I’ve found the quality of play to be lacking.
This is all to say, I didn’t have much of an opinion on either of the Warriors’ 2022 draft picks, Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Ryan Rollins, on draft night. As a rule of thumb, I try to only write about things that I know and observe. That’s why last summer, my article about the Warriors’ draft was something of an encyclopedia of the opinions of credible draft analysts and a theoretical discussion about the best, worst, and most likely outcomes for Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody’s rookie seasons.
For this article on Patrick Baldwin Jr., I actually... watched some college basketball. I didn’t particularly enjoy the product, but I came away from this exercise with observations and a whole bunch of film work that I hope you all will enjoy.
Somewhere deep in the annals of the internet, there’s a Bob Myers quote about prospect scouting that I have been unable to find, but I used it as my guide for this article. To paraphrase, Myers said that he liked watching the best and worst games of a prospect. This exercise gave Myers valuable insight into what a player looked like when things weren’t going their way. How does a player impact games when their shot isn’t falling? Does their attitude change when a defender frustrates them with physical play? Do they get mad at refs when they struggle to finish through contact? So on and so forth. We’ll refer to this Myers-influenced exercise as “Good Game/Bad Game.”
Before we get into Baldwin Jr.’s game film and my evaluation of him, let’s get some backstory first:
Patrick Baldwin Jr. played just 11 games in college and his underwhelming season was marked and eventually cut short by an ankle injury, so we have very few games to choose from. In February, Baldwin Jr. played the last game of his collegiate career, and University of Milwaukee head coach/PBJ’s father, lamented that his son couldn’t play “at an elite level” with his injury. This ankle injury reportedly occurred in his senior year of high school and attempts to play through it, rather than opt for surgery, caused discomfort throughout his brief college tenure.
This was not how Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s college career was supposed to play out. From a young age, PBJ was expected to be one of the top prospects in his draft class. In 8th grade, Baldwin Jr. already had a standing offer for a scholarship from Duke, and despite barely playing during his senior year of high school, Baldwin was a consensus top-5 prospect in his graduating class when he committed to the University of Milwaukee.
Here are some cherry-picked highlights from PBJ’s high school day:
The appeal of Baldwin Jr. is obvious: his shot looks beautiful, he has a high release, good footwork, interesting passing vision, and a smooth-off-the-dribble scoring package in a 6’9 frame. As one scout put it, Baldwin Jr. in high school was “modern-day basketball.”
The peak of Baldwin Jr.’s high-school career came in his first game as a senior when scored 43 points:
The very next game, Baldwin Jr. suffered a severe high ankle and since then things have gone mostly downhill. Despite his injury concerns, PBJ still had offers on the table from prestigious college basketball programs, but he turned those down in order to play for his father at the University of Milwaukee in the mid-major Horizon League.
Patrick Baldwin Sr. had accumulated a 47-70 record before his son joined the team, and was rumored to be on the hot seat going into the 2021-22 season. Mark Bartelstein, the agent of PBJ, said that his client felt, “a responsibility to help his dad keep his job.” No doubt, this contributed to PBJ’s desire to play through pain, which his father stopped him from doing. Another key part of the Patrick Baldwin Jr. story: in the spring of 2021, his mother was diagnosed with cancer, but his parents decided not to tell him about her diagnosis until he’d completed his international basketball stint in the summer of 2021.
Sentimentality aside, one scout in a CBS one scout put in a CBS article called the University of Milwaukee was “the worst spot for [Baldwin Jr.].” That same scout said that Baldwin Jr.’s poor college performance had made him reconsider why he’d been so high on him as a high school prospect:
"Maybe he never was a good shooter. Maybe it was a lazy evaluation," the scout said. "Even in FIBA basketball he wasn't a good shooter. Maybe it looked good but never went in. From a form and mechanical standpoint, it looks like the prettiest shot on earth, which makes me believe he can be a 15-point-per-game scorer. But he does take a lot of bad shots and he's never going to be a great finisher, either. The only way he's going to be a great scorer is if he plays next to a capable playmaker."
To that scout’s point, Patrick Baldwin Jr. had 47/32/60 shooting splits in 7 games at the international level during high school. A 2020 article about Baldwin Jr. during his prospect days notes that he shot 39.1% from three in the AAU and high school games that the author was able to find box scores for. But that same article notes that Baldwin Jr. shot far better at the high school level than he did against better competition in AAU games.
At the University of Milwaukee, Baldwin Jr. was indisputably the man on his team. Unfortunately, the rest of the team surrounding him was quite bad and lacking in semi-competent playmakers. Baldwin played just three games in college before spraining his ankle again. In those games, he scored 21, 19, and 13 points on 42.9%, 35%, and 40% shooting from the field.
After spraining his ankle against Bowling Green State, Baldwin Jr. played just 7 more games before his season ended. In those games, he shot 32.4% from the field and 27.5% from three. His numbers for the full season aren’t much better. In 11 games, PBJ averaged 12.1 points a game on 34/27/74 shooting splits. That free-throw percentage warrants some concern if you, like the scout quoted above, believe that PBJ’s shot is all form and no substance. Baldwin Jr. also finished just 14/27 at the rim in college and proceeded to mystify talent evaluators by logging awful vertical jump measurements at the NBA draft combine. Here’s another excerpt from the CBS article on PBJ:
Baldwin's standing vertical was a head-scratching 23.5 inches. His max vertical jump at the combine was 26.5 inches. So low as to be red-flagged. Curiosity bubbled up if Baldwin's ankle was still affecting his lift capability.
"When he did the vertical jump, he had a little bit of a brain cramp," Bartelstein said. "He jumped off two feet instead of one. He's been at 36 inches everywhere he's gone since."
Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s athletic ability, or lack of it, will likely determine his ceiling as a prospect. If Baldwin’s lack of explosiveness in college is a preview of how he’ll look against grown men in the NBA, then he’ll really have to tighten up his handle or develop unorthodox moves to get off self-created shots. What the skeptical scout quoted above got right about Baldwin Jr. is that he needed to play next to a capable playmaker. That is, uh, to put it charitably, not what happened at the University of Milwaukee. In the two games that I watched in full, I tallied nearly 20 times in my notes where I was aghast at the horrendous guard play on my screen. Here’s a compilation of some of those moments:
To make matters worse, Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s team had exactly two above-average three-point shooters, neither of whom shot at a high volume or an elite clip. From what I saw, neither the shooters nor Milwaukee’s lead guards were particularly adept at creating shots for themselves or their teammates, which is how Baldwin Jr. often ended up in bailout situations with the ball in his hands during the games I watched.
Keeping true to the nature of “Good Game/Bad Game” I watched only two games of Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s college career. There weren’t many full games of the University of Milwaukee available on the internet, but I still managed to choose one good game and one bad one.
Here are my takeaways about Patrick Baldwin Jr. from these two games:
Offense:
The Good:
PBJ’s shot looks beautiful with a high and repeatable release. He demonstrated good touch on catch-and-shoot shots from three and the mid-range. PBJ also has a natural sense of where to be on offense. He is an intuitive cutter, he commits to staying behind the three-point line when the ball is on the strong side unless there is an obvious reason to come to the strong side, and he knows when to come from the corner up to the wing on strong-side pick-and-rolls.
What impressed me most about PBJ is his passing feel. PBJ was, in my estimation, very obviously the smartest player on his team, and his quick reads as a passer demonstrate a high basketball IQ. PBJ makes accurate two-handed crosscourt passes and when he was dropped into the middle of the paint against zone defenses, he repeatedly found open shooters from the middle of the court and made clever passes to interior finishers. PBJ made one interesting pass off of the dribble in these two games but didn’t demonstrate much vision as a pick-and-roll passer. But in Steve Kerr’s system, he won’t need to run pick-and-roll and his connective passing should it in well. Below are some of the passes Baldwin Jr. threw in these two games:
The Bad:
PBJ’s handle is quite loose and nearly every time he tried to create from a stand-still he either lost the ball or was unable to create separation from his defender. This led to a few air-balled stepback jumpers and panicked shots in the paint. PBJ also does not seem to enjoy contact and threw up a few fading floaters after bouncing off of a defender, ala James Wiseman. PBJ has very little explosion or burst to his game and in his few paint shots, finished under the rim, if he finished at all.
Defense:
The Good:
PBJ has solid defensive awareness and is attentive to what goes on off-ball. PBJ stays below the ball when he’s defending off-ball and on the rare instances he lost track of a cutter, he realized that he’d forgotten and mitigated his mistakes by putting a forearm into cutters down paint. PBJ has a pretty good sense of how to navigate screens, despite subpar quickness. PBJ also makes a consistent effort to box out and looks to be a committed team rebounder.
The Bad:
PBJ isn’t very strong and when he contests drives, he shies from contact and doesn’t maintain verticality. This might make him more susceptible to committing fouls when someone gets into his chest. While PBJ does frequently box out, he will do so unnecessarily sometimes, far from the hoop, and get beaten to the ball. It’s also likely that Baldwin Jr. is food for quicker guards at the NBA level if he doesn’t improve on his lateral quickness.
12/4/2021: Milwaukee vs. Robert Morris, 77-69.
Patrick Balwin Jr.’s stats: 26 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 turnover, and 2 fouls on 9/14 FG, 6/6 3P, and 2/2 FT in 29 minutes.
The University of Milwaukee’s opponent entered this game with an 0-6 record and finished the season with just 8 wins. This was a bad team, the proverbial roster of plumbers and future car insurance salesman — the level of competition Patrick Baldwin Jr. faced in this game is cause for skepticism.
I wouldn’t take too much stock in how Patrick Baldwin Jr. looked, say, defending the perimeter against a team with low-level athletes and players who would be lucky to play professional ball overseas. The flip side here is that it might be cause for concern that Baldwin Jr. did not impose his will physically against an outmatched opponent.
Baldwin Jr. hit all six of his three-point shots against Robert Morris, all of which were of the catch-and-shoot variety. But on the few instances he had to put the ball on the floor, he struggled to get to his spots on the court and took panicked, off-balance floaters.
What stuck out to me most about this game was Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s intelligence. Robert Morris spent most of the game in a zone defense. This worked at first as Milwaukee stuck their guards in the middle of the zone, which led to a horror show of stagnant ball movement, mid-range bricks, and kick-out passes thrown into the stands.
After a few minutes of terrible offense, Baldwin Jr. decided to man the middle and this effectively turned the game around as he pointed his teammates towards the correct spots on the floor, hit mid-range jumpers from the middle of the zone, and threw quick and effective passes to shooters on the perimeter. Below is a video that highlights Baldwin Jr.’s understanding of spacing, positioning, and cutting opportunities. Take note of the first three clips where he guides his teammates to the right places on the court:
On defense, Baldwin Jr. looked pretty solid, but again, remember the level of competition. Good positioning and instincts on defense are commendable, but at the NBA level, good athletes can render your good instincts irrelevant. Take, for example, Kevon Looney, who didn’t make many defensive mistakes in his second season, but was simply not able to keep up physically with the pace of the game or the strength of his opponents.
12/10/2021: Milwaukee vs. Colorado, 54-65.
Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s stats: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, and 1 foul on 3/13 FG, 2/10 3P, and 4/7 FT.
The Colorado Buffaloes (21-12 record and 4th in Pac-12) were probably the best opponent that Patrick Baldwin Jr. faced all season. Baldwin Jr. looked physically underwhelming and in the key moments of the game, his positional counterpart, Jabari Walker (#57 overall pick), outplayed him.
This game, which was one of the better box-score performances PBJ put up in his final 6 games, demonstrated his weaknesses in a glaring fashion. The Buffaloes wisely opted against a zone defense and instead forced Milwaukee’s clown show of guards to try and make things happen. When good shots did not manifest, Baldwin Jr. became Milwaukee’s go-to bailout option, which had disastrous results. Against higher-level athletes, Baldwin Jr. frequently lost the ball as he tried to create off the dribble, and in most of the instances he created separation for step-back jumpers, he air-balled them. On a few instances, PBJ drove to the hoop and got in, or at least, near the paint, but he didn’t seem to relish physical contact.
When Baldwin Jr. did get clean looks from three, most of them were of the movement variety, rather than standstill catch-and-shoot looks. Baldwin shot just 2/10 from deep in this game and didn’t hit a single movement three and very much looked the part of a shooter who needed to play off of other offensive creators. Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s horrendous guard play made it difficult for him to get good looks. I counted several instances, which you’ve probably already seen above in my video on Milwaukee’s bad guard play, where his guards missed chances to hit him rolling to the hoop or slipping a screen and flaring out to the wing for a wide-open jumper.
On defense, Baldwin Jr. tried and mostly did the right things, but higher-level athletes slipped by him with ease as they attacked closeouts and he didn’t provide much resistance as a rim protector.
How do I feel about Patrick Baldwin Jr.?
Quite ok, actually! While I’m still a little skeptical of the Warriors’ plan to go even younger this offseason, I think that Patrick Baldwin Jr. is a worthy gamble and his intelligence is obvious. Even if PBJ remains a ground-bound athlete, I think he has a future in this league as a role player. On a good team with capable ball-handlers and passers, like the Golden State Warriors, PBJ won’t need to create his own shots and he won’t be forced into a diet of movement threes. Baldwin Jr. is a smart passer and intuitive offensive player who should make sense of the opportunities available in Steve Kerr’s system. On a diet of easy shots, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for PBJ to match, or eventually, exceed Otto Porter Jr.’s 37% from three this past season.
I kept coming back to Otto Porter Jr. as a point of reference for Patrick Baldwin Jr. Even with his ankle issues in college, I think that Baldwin Jr. was about as agile as modern-day OPJ. Improbably, PBJ’s listed weight is 30 pounds more than OPJ’s, which I find hard to believe, considering how stout Otto was defending and rebounding on the interior. Weight isn’t a perfect determinant of strength, though, and because Patrick Baldwin Jr. is not even 20 years old, I suspect it’ll be years before he gains the grown-man strength that made Otto Porter Jr. a capable 4 and occasional small-ball 5 in the modern NBA.
I think Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s shot should hold up at the NBA level if he doesn’t have to create for himself, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that physical limitations put a cap on his defensive effectiveness for the first years of his career. Baldwin Jr. mostly did the right things on defense when I watched him, but if he can’t handle the speed and physicality of the NBA, he’ll need to provide huge plus value on offense to stay on the court. Baldwin Jr. will also need to show a willingness to get physical on defense. If he doesn’t need to create shots for himself because he’s spotting up for threes, his willingness to seek contact on offense won’t matter much, but PBJ projects as a 4 or small-ball 5 on defense and will need to show the willingness to get dirty down low.
If Patrick Baldwin Jr. doesn’t have much athletic ability left to maximize, I see his best case as an occasionally fearsome catch-and-shoot guy who has to rely on wiggle to create midrange jumpers when he (inevitably) struggles to get to the rim. If Baldwin Jr. can improve upon his athletic ability and shaky handle, that would open up the doors for him to do more than just attack closeouts in a straight line or take one-dribble pull-ups.
I’d be shocked if Patrick Baldwin Jr. provides enough defensive value to become a staple of Steve Kerr’s rotation during his rookie season, but because Kerr is gonna Kerr every few weeks or so, don’t be surprised if PBJ has a few nice moments alongside Steph Curry and Draymond Green as a rookie. A credible catch-and-shoot marksman with passing ability like Baldwin Jr.’s should look good in Steve Kerr’s offense, and while he doesn’t have the athletic ability and explosive potential of someone like Jonathan Kuminga, I also doubt that you’d ever see PBJ look off of an open Steph Curry in a playoff game to try and cook 1v1 and get stuffed under the rim.
My best guess is that Patrick Baldwin Jr. intrigues occasionally as a rookie but doesn’t play rotation minutes because he needs to get his body right before he can help an NBA team night in and night out. But if Baldwin Jr. can stay healthy — forget whether he can get more athletic, I’m just talking about basic durability — I think he can have a career path similar to Kevon Looney’s and turn himself into a valuable rotation player by his third year. PBJ’s athletic ability and physicality are the two biggest barriers to him sticking in the NBA, but I came away from my Bob Myers exercise of “Good Game/Bad Game” confident that he has the requisite intelligence to play at the NBA level. Now it’s up to PBJ to show that has the physical ability and will to make good on his promise as a high-IQ shooter.