Good Game/Bad Game: a scouting exercise for Ryan Rollins
What we can learn from watching a good and bad game by Ryan Rollins: his playmaking, his defensive potential and downsides, and much more.
The start of training camp is less than a week away and I am in desperate need of basketball. That is why I’ve spent most of my last few days writing another “Good Game/Bad Game” article, this time about the Warriors’ #44 overall draft pick, Ryan Rollins. I plan on writing at least one more article like this about some of the Warriors’ training camp invitees and once the preseason games start, so will the in-depth game recaps and all the other obsessively detailed content.
The basic premise of the “Good Game/Bad Game” exercise is this: I once saw a quote from Bob Myers about that being a way he liked to evaluate prospects because he value the opportunity to see how a prospect would impact the game and behave themselves when things weren’t going their way. This exercise, I think, is far more interesting than binging cherry-picked highlight reels and it gave me an excuse to watch some basketball again! But first, let’s do some backstory on Ryan Rollins:
Despite a storied high-school career in Michigan that made him a Mr. Basketball candidate, Ryan Rollins was mostly recruited by mid-major colleges. Rollins decided on the University of Toledo prior to his senior year of high school “to get that weight off of my shoulder and just worry about basketball,” and proceeded to average 25.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game during his senior year and earn All-State recognition.
Ryan Rollins played two seasons at the University of Toledo in the Mid-American Conference and his team finished first in the MAC-West conference in back-to-back seasons.
The quality of play in the MAC-West was levels above the games I watched Patrick Balwin Jr. play in the Horizon League. And because Rollins played 64 games over two seasons in his collegiate career, he has a significant sample size for the stats he accumulated, unlike PBJ, who only played 11 games in college and was plagued by injury.
Here are Ryan Rollins’ numbers in college:
2020-21 season: 13.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.1 blocks, 2.4 turnovers, and 2.7 fouls on 43/32/79 shooting splits. Advanced stats: 104.6 ORTG, 102.7 DRTG,121 WS/40, 0.2 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM, 0.2 BPM.
2021-22 season: 18.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, and 2.4 fouls on 54/31/80 shooting splits. Advanced stats: 114.0 ORTG, 95.1 DRTG, .208 WS/40, +3.4 OBPM, +2.0 DBPM, +5.4 BPM.
As I scoured Ryan Rollins’ game log to try and determine which games of his I wanted to watch, I was struck by his rebounding numbers. In 16 of the 34 games he played during his sophomore season, Rollins had at least 6 rebounds and he tallied 7 games with 8+ boards, including games of 10, 11, and 16 rebounds. Simply put, most young guards don’t rebound like that.
Rollins built on a solid freshman season and bumped up his scoring, rebounding, and assist numbers as a sophomore. While his three-point shooting percentage decreased on near-identical volume (4.2 and 4.4 3PA in his two seasons in college), Rollins’ field-goal percentage increased during his sophomore season because he increased his 2P FG% from 49.5% to 53.6%. Per a draft profile of Rollins on NBA.com, Rollins averaged a 72nd percentile 0.89 PPP on pull-up jumpers during his sophomore season, which is impressive considering that these accounted for nearly half of his attempts.
Improbably, Rollins’ pull-up PPP is nearly identical to his 0.92 PPP on catch-and-shoot jumpers. That’s a skill that will need to improve at the NBA level and especially in Steve Kerr's offensive system, which eschews on-ball dominance in favor of off-ball movement and motion-created shots.
One last stat of note: Rollins had a STL% of 3.0 in his sophomore season, which ranks well above average (2.5%). In recent years, STL% has become a favorite stat of some draft analysts who noticed that many NBA stars tallied high STL% in college. Here are a few charts that provide some context — and perhaps, cause for skepticism — courtesy of a Medium.com article by Adrian Berg.
It took me quite some time to track down full games for the University of Toledo, so I wasn’t able to watch the exact games that I’d circled in Rollins’ game logs from the 2021-22 season. I really wanted to watch Rollins play in a win against the University of Ohio (15 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists, on 6/9 FG on February 8) and in a loss against the University of Richmond (5 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and a block, on 2/12 FG on December 11). What appealed to me about those games was that Rollins stuffed the box score in both of them, regardless of his shooting efficiency.
But after scouring YouTube, some less reputable parts of the internet, and a few sites I was unwilling to spend significant amounts of money to access, I couldn’t find the games I wanted. I actually was only able to find two full games from Rollins’ sophomore season — one against Miami University (OH) and the other against Buffalo University. They aren’t perfect examples of the Good/Bad Game binary, but they turned out to be interesting games that offered a nice glimpse into what Rollins can do when things are going well and not so well.
Here are some of my takeaways on Ryan Rollins:
Offense:
Good:
Rollins is shifty with the ball in his hands and can get free of defenders with clever changes of pace. When he attacks off of the catch, he can make quick reads and improvise capably. Rollins is not scared of contact and has the quickness to consistently get into the paint when he isn’t attacking from a standstill. Rollins has some intriguing qualities as an off-ball player. He isn’t scared of setting back screens and demonstrated an eye for setting unexpected screens on shooter’s defenders. Rollins also cuts to the basket with vigor, which will be good in Steve Kerr’s system.
Rollins makes interesting passes out of the pick-and-roll, including some bizarre, off-kilter passes that work better than you’d expect.
Bad:
Rollins does overdribble on occasion and can get in trouble when he stubbornly drives into clogged paint. Long defenders can stop Rollins from getting deep into the paint when he attacks from a standstill and he struggles to finish against strong rim protectors.
Rollins isn’t a threatening three-point shooter and while he can hit mid-range jumpers, the quality of those shots is often worse than you’d like it to be. For someone who isn’t much of a three-point threat, he spends a fair amount of time clapping for the ball on the perimeter ala Kevin Durant.
Rollins can ball-watch when he’s put off of the ball and will occasionally overload one side of the court without noticing it. Rollins isn’t much of a connective passer — most of his best passes occurred with the ball in his hands, as opposed to him making touch passes on the perimeter ala Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Defense:
Good:
Rollins is athletic and lengthy enough to be a disruptive defender on the perimeter. Rollins creates turnovers with on-ball deflections and is long enough to recover to shooters when he’s off-ball and deflect passes or occasionally tip or block shots on closeouts. Rollins also has good rebounding instincts for a guard: he boxes out bigger men on occasion and he will get into the paint to fight for contested rebounds.
Bad:
Rollins can get too aggressive with double teams or dig too far at post players/penetrators, which in turn, leads to wide-open threes for Rollins’ man. Rollins also looks somewhat slight of frame and when offensive players attack his chest, he doesn’t provide much physical resistance.
January 11, 2022: Toledo vs. Miami (OH), 88- 73:
22 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 block, 2 turnovers, and 2 fouls on 8/16 FG, 2/5 3P, and 4/4 FT in 32 minutes.
Prior to watching this game, I had mentally jotted this night down as a “good” game because of Rollins’ shooting efficiency and box-score stuffing. But I came to actually prefer how Rollins played in the “bad” game against Buffalo (more on that game later) and found myself underwhelmed by Rollins’ decision-making in this game.
On top of two turnovers, Rollins had a few possessions where he got blocked or took shots behind the backboard because he got too stubborn attacking the rim, and he had a few possessions where overdribbling forced him to pick up his dribble. Several of the more frustrating possessions in this game occurred on pick-and-rolls. Some of these actions were well-defended and floor spacing is already cramped in the NCAA, so this isn’t entirely on Rollins. But I didn’t love the process that led to some of his pull-up jumpers and Rollins finished the game with 0 assists.
The things that Rollins did that intrigued me most occurred when didn’t have the ball in his hands. Rollins showed a taste for a well-timed, unexpected cut and he surprised me when he made multiple attempts to walk into setting a screen that walled off a defender, which would free up one of his teammates for a wide-open shot. But for every one of those instances, Rollins had a possession where he barely moved or would get in the way of a shooter spacing out to their spot.
Defensively, I thought Rollins was a mixed bag. Toledo used him at the head of a full-court press and used his athleticism and wingspan to create a turnover he was not credited. This was quite impressive, as was his ability to out-rebound and box out bigger players. But Rollins overhelped several times and gave up wide-open shots that would get him yanked right away at the NBA level.
March 1, 2022: Toledo vs. Buffalo, 92-76.
20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover, and 1 block on 7/18 FG, 2/3 3P, and 4/6 FT in 36 minutes.
Ryan Rollins took 18 shots in this game en route to 20 points, that inefficiency is what led me to classify this as the “bad” game, but I came away from it far more impressed with Rollins than I was after watching the Toledo vs. Miami game. Rollins was particularly impressive as a passer in this game, spraying out kick-out passes to shooters on drives, throwing cross-court passes, and hitting roll men and baseline cutters with well-angled passes.
Rollins’ passing was good enough that it made me not care too much about the fact that he shot just 4/15 on two-point field goals in this game. By my count, Rollins made only one shot at or near the rim and missed three layups, and had another three of them blocked, but he was far more decisive with the ball in his hands in this game. That amount of turnovers and blocked shots is less than ideal, of course, but I don’t expect that he’ll have the ball in his hands enough in Steve Kerr’s system to attack the rim with this frequency.
Defensively, I thought that Rollins made fewer mistakes in this game when off-ball, but he showed some of his limitations defending on-ball against bigger and stronger players who had no issue moving him out of the way on drives to the hoop.
What’s next for Ryan Rollins?
Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, and to whatever extent he’s capable of contributing if he does not retire, Andre Iguodala, all have claims to minutes over Ryan Rollins. It’s unlikely that Rollins forces his way into the rotation, but there is a path for him to play spot minutes on this Warriors team.
Steph Curry has missed an average of 18 games a season, not counting his 2019-20 season, since the start of his 30s and the Warriors should manage his minutes this season after a long playoff run — in the 15 or so games that I expect Curry to miss, whether it be because of injury or load management, the Warriors will need someone to handle the ball when Jordan Poole sits. Or consider, instead, a scenario where Jordan Poole misses games at some point in the season. Rollins would have to compete with Iguodala — if he’s on the roster and healthy — and Donte DiVincenzo for those backup point guards if Curry or Poole miss games.
What would Rollins have to do to force his way onto the floor? His activity on the defense could catch Steve Kerr’s eye — Kerr gave unexpected early-season minutes to Jonathan Kuminga last season, who was expected to be more of a project than his rookie counterpart, Moses Moody because Kuminga impressed as an on-ball defender in practices. Rollins is long and athletic enough to disrupt passes both on and off-ball, but I do worry that his penchant for overhelping and giving up open shots could cancel out the good he does on the defensive end.
Another path to minutes for Rollins would be proving that he can take care of the ball. Steve Kerr has long prioritized safety and risk-free basketball from backup point guards — to the point of detriment, in my opinion — and because Steph Curry and Jordan Poole are both free-wheeling shot-hunting guards, Kerr would likely want someone more predictable to handle the ball in their absence. In the games that I watched, Rollins did sometimes overdribble and got too aggressive trying to get downhill, but he also demonstrated legitimate play-making skills within pick-and-rolls. For what it’s worth, his AST:TOV ratio of 1:64 in his sophomore season beats Jordan Poole’s 1.46 AST:TOV from his final season in college and his 1.60 AST:TOV from Poole’s 2021-22 NBA season.
But the fact that Rollins’ playmaking popped most in pick-and-roll situations might not mean much to Steve Kerr, whose system favors off-ball movement and minimizes PNR opportunities. Rollins didn’t impress me much as a connective passer — Donte DiVincenzo, for example, is better in that capacity from what I remember of the 2018-19 season when I watched more Milwaukee than I did Golden State — and his occasional off-ball stagnation won’t fly in the motion offense.
If Rollins isn’t trusted to be a primary ball-handler as a rookie, I think his path to minutes is pretty much blocked off. Rollins was not a good catch-and-shoot player in college, which will limit his effectiveness off-ball unless he’s playing with oodles of spacing that would make him a more effective cutter. But I just don’t think Rollins will spend that much time playing with the grownups this season when Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, Donte DiVincenzo are clearly above him in the depth chart, and Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman have a clear path to rotation minutes, despite their unpredictability.
My guess is that Rollins is mostly garbage-time and load-management fodder during his rookie season. He’ll get some unexpected rotation minutes this season because Steve Kerr likes to keep his bench players on their toes, but I don’t see Rollins playing more than 30-40 games this season, barring injuries to the players ahead of him on the depth chart. While Rollins is an interesting prospect with room to grow, I suspect that the things working against him — a poor outside shot and mediocre playmaking without the ball in his hands — could lead Steve Kerr and the Warriors’ front office to seriously consider adding a veteran ball-handler to the roster if Andre Iguodala doesn’t return.
NBA writer, Marc Stein, recently wrote that the Warriors expect Andre Iguodala to play one more season. This, for various and obvious reasons, would be an ideal outcome for the Warriors. I think it would also protect Steve Kerr from his most frustrating impulse to seek a security blanket third guard in the way of a shot-averse playmaking guard. The Warriors did recently work out Elfrid Payton, among other fringe veterans, which raised the possibility of the Warriors planning for life without Iguodala.
An Iguodala return would obviously be preferable to someone like Payton and while I am skeptical that Rollins will play much as a rookie, I actually want to see him get a shot at spot minutes and I think that’s more likely if Iguodala is on the roster, rather than someone healthier like Payton. Rollins is an intriguing defender, albeit a risk-taking one, and I’d actually like Steve Kerr be to forced to give more free reign to pick-and-roll ball-handlers rather than lean on impotent pass-first ones ala Wanamaker/Mannion.
The start camp is now four days away and the Warriors’ first game 8 days away, so in due time, we’ll see if Ryan Rollins is going to get a chance to play on this Warriors team.