The Warriors draft Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody: an abridged look at the Warriors' two wing prospects
What it all means, best and worst case scenarios, consensus views on Kuminga and Moody, and expert views on the Warriors' prospects
The Golden State Warriors came out of the 2021 draft with two players, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. That the Warriors kept both picks was something of a surprise. Credible reporters said in the lead up to the draft that the Warriors were shopping their draft picks for proven veterans and The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson, who is as well connected to the Warriors’ core players as any reporter in the nation, had reported that the core were pressuring the front office to use their two lottery picks to add veteran players.
It was rather unexpected that Kuminga and Moody were both available at their respective draft slots. It seems that the opportunity to add two touted young players to the Warriors roster was irresistible to the Warriors’ brain trust, specifically Warriors owner, Joe Lacob, who told The Athletic’s Anthony Slater that adding Kuminga and Moody to the Warriors’ aging core was, “sort of my dream.” Lacob’s quotes are not exactly surprising — it has been reported that the Lacob family has long been enamored with the idea of building a young core in parallel with the Hall of Fame core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.
Lacob’s quotes warrant further examination, if only for how unapologetically and explicitly they affirm his belief that the Warriors can and will contend for a championship with a mostly young roster surrounding three of the best players this Warriors franchise might ever have. The most interesting of Lacob’s quotes are below:
“So the more likely path — and the path that I think, as an owner, I feel most comfortable with, quite frankly — is to bridge the gap to the future, [...] we’ve got three or four contracts and big players that are still in their early 30s, still have quite a bit of time to go, especially in this day and age. If we can kind of have a Wiseman and a Kuminga and a Moody and a Poole (help in the meantime). They don’t have to be awesome next year. With a great investment in our player development staff, we just want them to show great potential.”
[…]
“If we can’t [contend], then you should look at Joe Lacob and Bob Myers and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins and say you weren’t good enough, [...] You’re paying all that money you weren’t good enough. They need to be good enough and they should be. They’ve won before. They’re a little older, but they’re still really good. Klay will be back. That’s the key. I think we’ll be good enough. Yes.
Now, we add a few veterans. We’re going to do that (in free agency). You’ll see in the next few days. Then we now have some incredible potential that we can bridge to the future. When you can do both those things at once, it’s magic. Who does that? The Lakers didn’t make the playoffs for six straight years. I don’t want to be the Lakers, I don’t want to be six years out. It’s too important to me. I don’t want to sit and be a losing team. I think we’re going to be good and hopefully great every year.”
In the abstract, Lacob’s desire isn’t entirely unfounded — the Warriors are in luxury tax hell and it absolutely would benefit the Warriors to have multiple players on rookie contracts outplay the value of their contracts. The San Francisco Giants, led by general manager, Fahran Zaidi, and manager, Gabe Kapler, have had great success wringing productivity out of low cost and young contracts and their exceptional depth is the biggest reason the Giants are at the time of writing, the most winning team in the MLB. But what is concerning for the Warriors is that Kevon Looney and Jordan Poole are really the only young ish players drafted in the Kerr era who fit that bill.
The Warriors’ offseason hiring of former Brooklyn Nets assistant, Kenny Atkinson, former Toronto Raptors development coach, Jama Mahlalela, and former Euroleague coach, Dejan Milojevic, represent an earnest attempt at prioritizing player development across all levels of the Warriors’ roster. This is commendable. But without a credible track record of recent success within the Warriors’ organization, banking on the development and NBA usefulness of rookies like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody is a huge risk.
The best case scenario
If Joe Lacob’s wildest dreams come true, Kuminga and Moody will be not only useful, but offer the Warriors a bridge to the future in conjunction with 2020’s #2 overall pick, James Wiseman, and 2019 first rounder Jordan Poole. In this best case scenario, Poole builds off his sophomore season and gives the Warriors much needed scoring and playmaking punch in the second unit, Wiseman flashes some of the shooting and finishing potential that made him a consensus top prospect, Moody hits open threes on a high volume while defending enough to stay on the court, and Kuminga looks like a wing who should defend multiple positions and make use of his athletic ability to find open shots within the Warriors’ system.
If the young guys pop, the Warriors have options. It’s easier to swing a trade for a big name player (although Lacob all but dismisses that idea on the basis of financial considerations in his recent interview with Slater). But the clear appeal for Joe Lacob is to be able to ease Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green out of the prime of their careers and let the young guys pick up the slack. In the Steve Kerr era, players like Alfonzo McKinnie, Nick Young, Brandon Rush, Mychal Mulder, and Damion Lee have all been the worthy recipients of 15-20 minutes a game at the wings.
That is not necessarily an endorsement of these players’ ability, but rather an acknowledgement of the Warriors’ depleted wing depth of the last few years. Moses Moody, who played at the University of Arkansas under former Warriors coach, Eric Mussleman, in a NBA-style system, was a genuine shot maker in his lone season at college. Mussleman sang Moody’s praises in a pre-draft tweet that highlighted the wing’s shooting numbers.
Moody has been a high level prospect for several years now and he’s spent most of these last few years playing as a 3-D guy. He shouldn’t have to adjust to a new role because this is what he’s done for years. Beyond that, Moody did better in an expanded offensive role than was expected of him, which led to him rising up draft boards.
Moody can get easier looks at the pro level if he plays occasional minutes next to Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Juan Toscano-Anderson are all more capable and experienced defenders than Moody — veterans like that will save him
He should be in a position where he has to earn minutes, rather than have them handed to him, and his defensive ability could earn him the trust of Steve Kerr in his rookie season. A player who fits Moody’s description would have benefited the Warriors during the tail end of their 2020-2021 season. On a better roster, his minutes would be less necessary and ideally, well earned.
Jonathan Kuminga, who played 18 games for the G-League Ignite team, has long been a consensus top prospect because of his intoxicating athletic ability. The consensus on him is that he’s raw. His G-League numbers back that up. But he’s reported to be a hard worker and his physical profile fits the modern NBA to a tee. If you like feel good stories about a young prospect, here’s one about Kuminga — as an adolescent growing up in the Democratic Republic of the Kongo, Kunminga would use his pocket money to study highlights videos of Kobe Bryant at a local internet cafe. The Warriors would likely not have picked Kuminga if he wasn’t someone who would work diligently on his game. Whatever he is today, he will get better.
The infrastructure of an NBA team — the weight rooms, the nutritionists, the veteran players, the dedicated coaches — should benefit Kuminga. The optimistic view of him would have him utilize that infrastructure to his advantage while he eases into NBA minutes in an organized manner. Kuminga should not play unearned minutes next season. Like Moody, his minutes will have to come with the trust of Steve Kerr, which means that Kuminga will have to commit to playing defense and adhering to the principles of the Warriors’ motion offense.
Making Kuminga focus on those things, rather than creating shots for a bad NBA team and facing an opponent’s best wing defenders, could speed up his development. Kuminga could, in theory, not have the opportunity to build bad habits. He’d have to earn every minute of playing for this Warriors’ team. Young players who contribute to winning teams are rare, but they almost always improve and they become coveted players. The Warriors could really benefit from having an intriguing young wing who will eventually take the lions share of minutes at the 3 and/or be a valuable trade asset.
The worst case scenario
It’s pretty rare that rookies help NBA teams win games. It’s exceedingly rare for rookies to contribute to a contending team. If Kuminga and Moody are simply run-of-the-mill rookies, that would keep with historic precedent and it would put the Warriors in a bind. Imagine a scenario where Moses Moody can’t beat out Damion Lee, Mychal Mulder, or Justinan Jessup for consistent minutes and Jonathan Kuminga doesn’t earn meaningful playing time. In that scenario, you’d better hope that the Warriors have reliable veterans that push Lee and other bit players down the depth chart, otherwise next season’s Warriors won’t be that much better than the 2020-2021 Warriors.
If a big name player becomes available in a trade, underwhelming rookie seasons from Kuminga and/or Moody would likely diminish the value of the Warriors’ trade package. Maybe the Warriors can’t swing a trade package headlined by Kuminga or maybe teams ask for someone like Jordan Poole instead of or in addition to Kuminga/Moody/Wiseman and you have to lose a valuable rotation player as you try to build a contending team. When the Los Angeles Lakers cashed in their assets for Anthony Davis, they were able to keep one intriguing young guy in Kyle Kuzma precisely because their other prospects had shown enough to headline a trade package for a star. That is the ideal scenario for the Warriors, but it’s not guaranteed.
The worst case scenario isn’t totally out of the question. The Athletic’s Anthony Slater, who is well plugged into the Warriors, said this about Kuminga on draft night.
It’s hard to see Kuminga holding more value this time of year next year than he does today, before he plays a single minute of NBA ball, if Slater’s prediction comes true. James Wiseman’s rookie season is a cautionary tale for what could happen with Kuminga, but at least in the case of Kuminga, all indicators are that he will not be gifted minutes and is unlikely to be thrown to the wolves. The Warriors coaching staff should do a better job of protecting Kuminga than they did Wiseman, but if that protection amounts to not playing him any real NBA minutes, what will other teams think of Kuminga?
Jonathan Kuminga’s stats in his G-League stint with the Ignite are comparable — and not in a good way — to those of the now ex-Warrior, Alen Smailagic.
Kuminga should improve upon those numbers, but what if the improvement is only marginal and his efficiency remains below average in the G-League? A top 10 pick who does not dominate the G-League is unlikely to hold much trade value. Of course, Kuminga could improve in his second and third years, but by that time Steph Curry will be 35 and 36 at the end of those respective seasons and an unimpressive rookie season would likely fate the Warriors to holding onto Kuminga until he provides value on the court or in a trade package.
The consensus views of Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga
I’m going to quote from and link liberally to content in this section some pre-draft and post-draft content from the big hitters of NBA draft coverage such as The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman, The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, ESPN’s Mike Schmitz, Hoop Intellect, and NBAwowy’s Evan Zamir. The above analysts dedicate most of their time to covering the draft and are among the most knowledgeable and well connected people out there when it comes to watching games and garnering info about prospects and talking to their coaches, their opponents, mentors, and the like.
I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m a little skeptical about the consensus views of prospects, particularly those who are big time high school players who then stall out at higher levels of competition. But still, it is valuable to understand how and why it is that prospects receive their industry wide reputations. Sometimes players improve upon their perceived weaknesses so rapidly and unexpectedly — like, say, Draymond Green and his perceived defensive shortcomings — that their pre-draft scouting reports read like comedy. In other cases, weaknesses never improve the way evaluators anticipate and the theoretical downsides of a prospect become prophetic.
ESPN’s Mike Schmitz and Moses Moody break down film together:
Jonathan Wasserman on Moody:
Scouting Report: Moody projects as an easy fit for every team, thanks to his off-ball shot-making and knack for scoring within the flow of a team offense. He could improve his creativity, but shooting skills and defensive tools point to a high three-and-D floor.
Evan Zamir’s big board:
Kevin O’Connor’s video scouting report on Jonathan Kuminga:
Sam Vecenie on Jonathan Kuminga:
Ideal measurements for a big wing initiator type at something in the range of 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan. Good intersection of explosiveness, power, speed and length. Uses it well too. Functionally gets a lot out of his high-level athleticism in both half court and full-court settings. Has a good first step that is both twitchy and a long stride, allowing him to get by defenders in a straight line. Good, not great, change of pace. Great leaper off two feet, with the ability not just to absorb contact but also to initiate it. Goes through guys at the rim. Also has some craft off one foot as a leaper due to his length, with the ability to finish above the rim there. Has all the tools you look for in big wing creators that can play on both ends of the floor. [...]
Still developing as a half-court playmaker, but the potential is there. Draws defenders toward him, then finds cutters at the rim. Doesn’t really look outward to find kickouts. Better at finding drop-off passes to bigs. Has some ball-screen passing potential too. The idea, though, is that Kuminga can be a two-way wing. Defensively, he has all the tools to be very good. Strength to play down at the four, where he can occasionally be an effective weakside shot blocker. Particularly good when he can really load up off two feet. Players don’t really go through his body when he’s sliding and engaged. Good lateral quickness and good straight-line recovery speed. Obviously has some real switchability and won’t be a magnet for switches by opposing guards. Does get his hands to a lot of balls to deflect and disrupt things.
[...]
Kuminga is not a good defender right now. It’s all tools with some spectacular highlights. No possession-by-possession consistency. His approach was bad in the G League. Not enough consistency in his stance, and he often decided not to lock in. A lot of standing around when on the ball, where he thought his defensive tools would allow him to chase down and recover to contest. Some lazy lunging and reaching as opposed to staying solid in his stance and in position. Doesn’t know how to navigate ball screens. Really avoided contact on a lot of them and died on the vine. Also, was a bad off-ball defender. Falls asleep way too often. Still not really understanding how and when to read guys coming off screens away from the ball. Those two factors led to a lot of bad closeouts. He needs to play with better balance across the board, and defense is an example.
[...]
The biggest hindrance to his game right now is horrible shot selection and decision-making. Takes some ridiculous midrange shots that just have no shot of going in, especially out of that mid-post game and when he gets bodied as a driver. A lot of off-balance moves. Needs to slow down and become more patient. That also applies to his decision-making as a passer. You like that he plays with real aggression and forces the issue to put pressure on the defense, but it goes too far. Goes into one-on-three scenarios in transition regularly. Throws some really wild passes. Had an even assist-to-turnover ratio despite real flashes as a passer. In part it’s because he’s still working on his overall craft. He’s a raw player. His handle isn’t particularly tight and not particularly creative.
[...]
Did not make a crazy high percentage at rim. Only made 51 percent at rim in transition and only 52 percent in half court. But has all the tools to be good. The shooting percentages obviously say he doesn’t really shoot it well. That’s accurate. Made just under 25 percent from 3-point range and 62 percent from the line. I actually don’t hate the mechanics. Very clean release at the top. Good rotation. A bit inconsistent in terms of release point, which leads to an inconsistent arc. Big problem is that he totally lacks rhythm throughout the shot. Just very robotic.
Has an NBA wing frame with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. Absolutely looks the part and uses that length well on the court. Will have some real positional and defensive versatility. Critical skill for Moody is his shot-making ability. Very smooth mechanics. Beautiful one-motion jumper with a high release point due to his length. Does have a bit of a dip to get his body into rhythm, but once that happens the shot looks very clean mechanically. Good off the catch. Preps for the shot well with his feet in good position. Presents a nice target for passers. Consistently makes contested shots, too. Over 75 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks were classified as guarded, per Synergy, this season. That’s due to how long it takes him to load into the shot, but he’s not bothered by the contest, either. You basically know that every time he goes up for a shot, it’s going to look the same. Hit 36 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s this season, a good mark given how much defensive attention he received. Has a comfort level shooting off movement, too. Clean, concise movements without needing to take extra steps. Can take one-dribble relocation jumpers off heavy closeouts, as well as can stop and fire off quick screening actions.
[...]
Battles on ball. Uses his length well to disrupt what opposing players are doing. Keeps hands high and active. Blocked nearly one shot per game, with almost all of them coming off players driving him or with him closing out onto a shooter. Length seems to be deceptive in the way that offensive players judge it poorly when he goes out to contest. Fluid hips that he can drop in order to cut off angles for drivers. Projects to be switchable as he gets stronger because of this length and willingness to fight. Not quite there yet because he can get shoved away by stronger guys but should get there. Good rotationally off the ball.
[...]
Not a high-level athlete. Fine quickness but not great. Poor vertical pop for a wing and has a poor first step. Look at how wide his driving lanes are toward the rim, for instance, because he can’t beat anyone in a straight line. Allows defenders to recover due to the extra steps. Would help him to add as much explosiveness as he can going forward, but given that he’s known to have strong habits already, he might have relatively limited upside athletically moving forward.
Needs to get more comfortable as a passer. Doesn’t make many high-level reads. Good at hitting rollers out of ball screens. Doesn’t see open cross-corner players and doesn’t often hit even cross-wing skip passes. Mostly an escape passer if his lane gets cut off as opposed to someone 2021 putting pressure on the defense with good, strong reads. Rarely makes an effective live-dribble pass from the middle of the floor. Only happens from the perimeter when there is less pressure on his handle. Poor finisher at the rim. Despite that 7-foot wingspan, doesn’t use his length well at all. Doesn’t extend to finish closer to the rim. Instead, will kind of short arm the ball toward the basket. Given the lack of vertical pop, needs to get better at using his length and frame to shield the ball, the angles to finish. Real room for growth there, given the length. Made just 52.9 percent of his shots at the basket in halfcourt settings this year, which is buoyed by some of his offensive rebounding putbacks (where he shot 70 percent). When driving, Moody did not effectively finish at the rim unless he got fouled.
Jonathan Wasserman on Kuminga:
One of the most physically impressive prospects, Kuminga also flashed the creation and perimeter skill set for a top-scoring option. Even if he's not ready to come in and shoot a high percentage as a rookie, it's tough to picture a mid-lottery pick moving the needle for Golden State next season, anyway.
Kevin O’Connor on Jonathan Kuminga:
PLUSES
Excellent physical profile with a large frame and elite athleticism.
Has elite defensive potential if he ever decides to lock in mentally and improve his fundamentals. Capable of someday shutting down smaller, quicker players if he decides to play with intensity.
Talented but raw shot creator with a fluid handle. Gets low to the floor and takes massive strides to get to the basket in one or two dribbles.
Flashes advanced shot-creation abilities with crossovers, spin moves, and hesitations; with his explosive athleticism, size, and strength, he could be a handful for any defense if his skills develop.
Good first-read passer. Can make simple dump-off passes to cutters or find the roller. Has intriguing potential as a screener who could score on the roll or locate open teammates with a pass.
Ambidextrous at-rim finisher.
Active rebounder.
MINUSES
Decision-making: He gets flustered when his first read isn’t available and ends up jacking a ton of contested shots instead of looking for a pass or creating a higher-quality shot for himself.
A ball stopper who needs to be better at playing within the flow of the offense.
Inconsistent shooter who’s never had good percentages despite looking comfortable and confident from deep range, both off the catch and dribble. Has subpar touch away from the basket.
Aloof defender who finds himself out of position on rotations and often doesn’t put in effort on rotations. Also bites on pump fakes.
PLUSES
Excellent physical dimensions. Uses his strong frame and long arms to alter shots as a help defender near the rim or harass opponents man-to-man on the perimeter.
Good stationary shooter, but needs to speed up his release on 3s off screens and handoffs.
Unselfish player who excelled in an off-ball role. Does a good job of reading the floor off the dribble to make simple passes using either hand. Has intriguing potential as a screener who can thrive on the short roll.
Capable of pulling up from midrange after one or two dribbles.
Anticipatory rebounder with a nose for the ball, especially on offense.
Versatile on-ball defender who invites contact from larger players and has the agility to contain smaller, quicker perimeter scorers.
Intelligent off-ball defender who always seems to be in the right position.
MINUSES
Struggled to generate open shots against better defenders. Doesn’t project as a primary scorer unless his handle dramatically improves, and lacks the fluidity of players who develop that skill.
Lacks a floater.
Draws a lot of fouls but doesn’t finish well inside. A below-the-rim finisher. Needs to add more touch on finishes.
Lives in the midrange off the dribble. Needs to extend his range to 3 to hit more one-dribble side-step shots like high-level role players can.
Sam Vecenie and Jonathan Hollinger’s post-draft analysis of Jonathan Kuminga:
Vecenie’s Ranking: 5
Kuminga’s upside is that of an All-Star if he becomes the kind of pull-up shot maker that his tools portend potential to be. But if the pull-up game doesn’t come together, there is some significant downside here to where he’s more of a rotational wing than even potentially a starter. As referenced above, he’s not quite Jaylen Brown athletically; more of a power player than an explosive player. There’s some Jeff Green here if the shot doesn’t totally translate. The good news is that Kuminga’s work ethic is said to be strong, so he’ll bring most of his tools together into a high-level package.
Hollinger’s team fit: What do you do with a pick that you never wanted to make in the first place? Golden State was hoping to trade his pick for star power, but with nothing alluring on the table went for the long-term upside (and, probably more importantly, long-term trade value) of Kuminga. He’s a raw player who is unlikely to help the Warriors much this year, and I thought it made more sense for them to go for the reliable floor and near-certain plug-and-play role player capabilities of forward Franz Wagner.
Sam Vecenie and John Hollinger’s post-draft analysis of Moses Moody:
Vecenie’s Ranking: 7
Moody is a 3-and-D wing. He’s already good at both of those things too and was good at them at 18 years old in a tough SEC this past season. I get the athleticism concerns, and he needs to speed up his jumper. But I’m buying Moody as a lottery pick because he’s so young, has such a strong outlook on the way he prepares for his craft and has production and talent to be successful. He seems to have the right mentality and does things that help his team win games.
Hollinger’s team fit: I like the fit here for Golden State because they got a 3-and-D guy who can fit with some of their immediate goals, but didn’t completely punt on upside either. Moody doesn’t have a crazy high ceiling, but he’s a good defender with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and he has some development outcomes where he ends up as far more than just a shooter. It almost feels like the Warriors are more likely keep to this player than the one they took at No. 7 (Kuminga), given that Moody can probably help more in 2021-22.
Hoop Intellect on Jonathan Kuminga:
Hoop Intellect on Moses Moody
AUTHOR’S NOTE: Once summer league gets going, I’ll have more content looking at Kuminga and Moody. I plan to do a statistical profile of both players and look at their best and worst games in college and see what we can gleam from these performances. I plan on doing a similar analysis at the end of summer league for both players.
nibba