The Warriors' season in review: the guards - part 1
My review methodology, and a deep dive into the seasons of Gary Payton II, Nico Mannion, and Brad Wanamaker.
AUTHOR’S NOTE: I’ve updated this post to have player’s statistical profiles include metrics from Cleaning the Glass, whose numbers automatically filter out stats accumulated in garbage time. I’ve included their efficiency differential, shortened as DIFF, (“Team points scored per 100 possessions minus team points allowed per 100 possessions,”) and their percentiles, which are relative to a player’s position — point, combo, wing, forward and big — for usage, PSA (points per shot attempts), AST%, AST:Usg, and TOV%. I should also clarify that usage tracks how often a player terminates a possession via a shot, turnover, or free throw attempt, but Cleaning the Glass’ usage claims also to include assists in their counting.
My season in review posts are going to be split into positional categories: guards, wings, and bigs. I think quality guard play, or lack thereof outside of Steph Curry, is pretty much the tale of the season, so we might as well start here. In the interest of thoroughness, these graded reviews will present tons of lineup data, shot location percentages, and a round up of how the players fared by various advanced metrics like Dunks and Three’s EPM, ESPN’s RPM, and Basketball Reference’s BPM. We’ll start in descending order from least to most minutes played for the Warriors this season:
Gary Payton II: Incomplete
Gary Payton II joined the Warriors on a 10-day contract on April 8 and played all of 40 minutes this year. Very few of them were meaningful, although Steve Kerr did throw him into the fire to try and contain a scorching hot Jayson Tatum on a must-win road game against the Boston Celtics and later gave him five and a half minutes in a close game against the Sacramento Kings. On the final day of the season, Payton signed a standard contract and The Athletic’s Anthony Slater reported that he might be in the play for a roster spot next year. We don’t have much statistical info on Payton II and while I will post his shot profile and his lineup stats, beware that the sample sizes are so small as to be practically meaningless. I will instead list here Payton’s career averages in the G-League — 15.7 points a game, 7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.4 steals, 0.7 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, and 3.0 fouls on 49.7/27.4/67.8 splits — and defer to a brief scouting report from his father, NBA and Oakland legend, Gary Payton: “He plays so old-school right now, a lot of teams don’t really value his worth [...] he likes to play D, he likes to get everybody involved, he wanna be that 10, 10, 10 guy. [...] Just put him in the game, get a good 12 or 13 minutes from him, hound the best player on the team, the guard and then he can bring his other fellas in the game and close the game out.”
Gary Payton II Statistical Profile (career bests bolded, league leader italicized):
7-3 record in games played.
10 games played, 4 minutes a game, 2.5 points a game, 1.1 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.1 turnovers, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 0.8 fouls.
1.3 FGA, 0.4 3PA, 0.4 FTA.
BBREF: 152 ORTG, 95 DRTG, +7.9 +/- per 100 poss., 0.1 VORP, 3.31 WS/48, 16.8% USG.
NBA.com: 103.3 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, +2.2 net rating, 15.3% USG.
76.9% FG, 50% 3P, 75% FT, 84.7 TS% (+32.5% league average TS), 84.6% EFG.
-6.1 DIFF in non-garbage time, did not qualify for percentile tracking at wing position per Cleaning the Glass.
0.5 OBPM, 9.5 DBPM, 9.5 BPM (#3 of 540 rank, did not meet minutes qualifier.)
Did not qualify for ESPN’s RPM.
0.0 OFF, -0.4 DEF, -0.5 EPM (did not rank per minutes qualifier).
Gary Payton II’s performance in play-in tournament:
Not applicable.
Gary Payton II’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 88.9% on 9 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 0 attempts.
Mid-range: 0 attempts.
Left corner 3: 50% on 2 attempts.
Right corner 3: 0% on 1 attempt.
Above the break 3: 100% on 1 attempt.
Floaters: 0 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 100% on 7 attempts.
Assisted by: Draymond Green (3), Alen Smailagic (2), Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Juan Toscano-Anderson (1).
FGM% assisted: 61.5%.
FGM% unassisted: 39.5%.
This is the ultimate case of a small sample size. Payton played 40 minutes for the Warriors this year and has never appeared in more than 29 games in a season in his NBA career. There’s not much substantial stuff in the shot profile or the statistical profile.
The lineup stats:
Notable 5 man combos (positive combos bolded):
Mannion/Payton/Poole/Mulder/Smailagic: +2 net rating (107.1 ORTG) in 17 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +63.6 net rating (163.6 ORTG) in 5 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Poole/Oubre/JTA: -100 net rating (0 ORTG) in 3 minutes.
Mannion/Payton/Mulder/JTA/Smailagic: +60 net rating (120 ORTG) in 2 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Poole/Oubre/Green: +40 net rating (140 ORTG) in 2 minutes.
Notable 3 man combos (positive combos bolded):
Mannion/Payton/Mulder: +14.7 net rating (112.7 ORTG) in 23 minutes.
Mannion/Payton/Poole: +12.1 net rating (114.3 ORTG) in 21 minutes.
Poole/Payton/Mulder: +12.1 net rating (114.3 ORTG) in 21 minutes.
Mannion/Payton/Smailagic: +6.3 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 19 minutes.
Payton/Mulder/Smailagic: +6.3 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 19 minutes.
Poole/Payton/Smailagic: +2 net rating (107.1 ORTG) in 17 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Green: +38 net rating (125 ORTG) in 11 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Payton: +9.1 net rating (104.5 ORTG) in 10 minutes.
Curry/Payton/JTA: -64.8 net rating (40 ORTG) in 9 minutes.
Payton/Wiggins/Green: +55.7 net rating (117.6 ORTG) in 8 minutes.
Poole/Payton/JTA: -12.5 net rating (87.5 ORTG) in 8 minutes.
Payton/Wiggins/Looney: +15 net rating (140 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Poole: -34.8 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Payton/Mulder/JTA: +66.7 net rating (141.7 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Mannion/Payton/JTA: +66.7 net rating (141.7 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Looney: +11.4 net rating (140 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Curry/Payton/Oubre: -60.4 net rating (53.8 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Payton/Oubre: -66.8 net rating (50 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Payton/Looney: -4 net rating (131.3 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Payton/Wiggins: +16.1 net rating (104.5 ORTG) in 10 minutes.
Payton/Green: +49.1 net rating (125 ORTG) in 12 minutes.
Payton/JTA: -5.7 net rating (78.1 ORTG) in 16 minutes.
Curry/Payton: -16.7 net rating (91.7 ORTG) in 17 minutes.
Payton/Smailagic: +6.3 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 19 minutes.
Payton/Mulder: +8.8 net rating (110.7 ORTG) in 23 minutes.
Mannion/Payton: +14.7 net rating (112.7 ORTG) in 23 minutes.
Poole/Payton: +1.5 net rating (104.8 ORTG) in 27 minutes.
There’s tons of statistical noise here because of the minuscule sample sizes, but I’ve listed every 5 man combo with Payton that played more than a single minute and every 3 and every 2 man combo involving Payton that played more than 5 minutes. There’s a whole lot of garbage time combos here, but I think the most interesting combos in this list involve the starters. If Payton were to stick around on the Warriors next year, it would likely be as a defensive pest who gets spot minutes with the starters when an opponent’s lead guard is cooking. Steve Kerr did try out Payton in that configuration, but the sample size is way too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.
What comes next for Gary Payton II?
Although it’s hard to find exact details about the contract, Anthony Slater of The Athletic reported that Gary Payton II’s end-of-year contract would run into next season. He’s almost certainly on a non-guaranteed contract similar to the ones Mychal Mulder and Juan Toscano-Anderson signed at the end of the 2019-2020 season, which means that Payton II will be fighting for a roster spot in training camp this fall. Still, there’s no guarantee he even makes it to training camp — Warriors’ general manager, Bob Myers, has noted the team’s need for veterans and playmakers in free agency, which will take priority over Payton.
Nico Mannion: D
In March, Steve Kerr announced his intention to make Nico Mannion part of the Warriors’ revamped bench unit when it finally became clear — to Kerr, that is — that Brad Wanamaker minutes as a lead guard were no longer tenable. Kerr gushed about Mannion and called him a true point guard after recalling him from the G-League; Kerr was clearly excited to have someone he thought would be a low-risk player run his offense.. This decision made little sense to me. Mannion’s college stats (32.7% from three and 52% TS) and G-League stats (36.5% from three and 53.5% TS) indicated that he wasn’t an NBA level scorer. As Mannion is/was a 6’1, skinny rookie, he was also pretty much certain to be a terrible defender at the NBA level. During his stint as the Warriors’ coach, Steve Kerr has shown a clear preference for NBA level defenders to NBA level shooters, but Mannion seemed to be neither of those. The only thing of value Mannion might be expected to provide, as Kerr’s quotes implied, was an ability to get others involved and take care of the ball.
I’ll give Nico Mannion this,— he was moderately competent at getting others involved. But that’s pretty much all he can do at NBA level at this point in time. Nico was flammable on defense, struggled to finish, and didn’t show much of an ability to score in the mid-range. Even more concerning was that Mannion, a “true point guard” by Steve Kerr’s estimation, was a turnover machine — per Cleaning the Glass, Mannion ranked 7th percentile in TOV% at his position. Mind you, Cleaning the Glass filters out stats accumulated in garbage time (“the game has to be in the 4th quarter, the score differential has to be >= 25 for minutes 12-9, >= 20 for minutes 9-6, and >= 10 for the remainder of the quarter. Additionally, there have to be two or fewer starters on the floor combined between the two teams,”) in their stat keeping, so these turnovers were accumulated in meaningful minutes. Whoops! Mannion’s stint in the rotation was mercifully brief, but it was still too long for a team with Steph fucking Curry playing out of his mind. I will concede that it’s not Nico Mannion’s fault that Steve Kerr gifted him minutes as the backup point guard, but he didn’t show anything that made him worthy of valuable minutes that proved detrimental to the Warriors.
Nico Mannion’s statistical profile:
30 games played, 12.1 minutes a game, 4.1 points a game, 1.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 turnovers, 0.5 steals, 0.0 blocks, and 1.0 foul.
3.8 FGA, 2 3PA, 0.9 FTA.
BBREF: 99 ORTG, 111 DRTG, -11.3 +/- per 100 poss., -0.2 VORP, 0.29 WS/48, 18.5% USG.
NBA.com: 102.6 ORTG, 111.9 DRTG, -9.4 net rating, 18.6% USG.
34.2% FG, 36.7% 3P, 82.1% FT, 48.7. TS% (-8.5% league average TS), 43.9% EFG.
-21.2 DIFF (0 percentile) in non-garbage time minutes, 32nd percentile usage, 11th percentile PSA, 25th percentile AST%, 45th percentile AST:Usg, and 7th percentile TOV% among point position.
-3.4 OBPM, -0.7 DBPM, -4.1 BPM (#427 rank out of 540).
-0.09 ORPM, -1.91 DRPM, -2 RPM (#377 ranked out of 534 but did not meet minutes qualifier).
-2.7 OFF, -1.5 DEF, -4.2 EPM (#441 ranked of 505).
By all objective metrics, Nico Mannion was a bad basketball player. He didn’t play enough minutes to meet certain statistical qualifiers, but suffice to say, Mannion was bad and played more meaningful minutes than he had any right to this year.
Restricted area: 62.5% on 16 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 21.7% on 23 attempts.
Mid-range: 13.3% on 2 attempts.
Left corner 3: 75% on 4 attempts.
Right corner 3: 0% on 2 attempts.
Above the break 3: 35.2% on 54 attempts.
Floaters: 26.3% on 19 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 54.4% on 22 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 25.8%
Assisted by: Juan Toscano-Anderson (6), Jordan Poole (4), Andrew Wiggins (3), Kevon Looney and Eric Paschall (2), Kelly Oubre Jr., James Wiseman, Jordan Bell, Mychal Mulder, and Damion Lee (1).
FGM% assisted: 56.4%.
FGM% unassisted: 43.6%.
I am not yet a Cleaning the Glass subscriber so I can’t ascertain with any certainty which of these shots were taken in garbage time or not, but there is some interesting stuff here. The most concerning thing I see is that Mannion was awful driving to the hoop, shooting floaters, in the non-restricted area paint, and in the mid-range. Those are shots that a player with his limited physical profile absolutely needs to become a competent NBA point guard. If you can’t make defenses pay when you can’t get all the way to the hoop, your ceiling is capped. Note also Mannion’s putrid field goal percentage on pull-up 2 point attempts. That’s very bad. And yet... on a similar sample size, Mannion connects on a very good percentage bombing threes off of the dribble. Would that hold up in a large sample size? It’s hard to say, but that’s the type of skill that could turn Mannion into a credible back-up point guard.
The lineup stats!
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Mannion/Poole/Lee/Oubre/Looney: +3.3 net rating (103.3 ORTG) in 31 minutes.
Mannion/Lee/Wiggins/JTA/Wiseman: -16.2 net rating (100 ORTG) in 18 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Payton/Mulder/Smailagic: +2 net rating (107.1 ORTG) in 17 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Mulder/Paschall/Wiseman: +51.7 net rating (108.8 ORTG) in 16 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Mulder/JTA/Smailagic: -8.3 net rating (91.7 ORTG) in 15 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Oubre/JTA/Wiseman: -11.1 net rating (118.5 ORTG) in 12 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Oubre/Paschall/Wiseman: -76.3 net rating (78.3 ORTG) in 11 minutes.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Mannion/Poole/JTA: -8.9 net rating (103.8 ORTG) in 106 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Oubre: -16.7 net rating (99.5 ORTG) in 95 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Mulder: +12.4 net rating (107.9 ORTG) in 87 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Wiseman: +2.9 net rating (107.3 ORTG) in 82 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Lee: +0.6 net rating (101.3 ORTG) in 76 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Paschall: -2 net rating (104 ORTG) in 69 minutes.
Mannion/JTA/Wiseman: -5.6 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 66 minutes.
Mannion/Lee/Oubre: +0.9 net rating (111 ORTG) in 62 minutes.
Mannion/Wiggins/Wiseman: -40.8 net rating (79.2 ORTG) in 60 minutes.
Mannion/Poole/Looney: +4.6 net rating (113.5 ORTG) in 57 minutes.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Mannion/Curry: -26.2 net rating (107.1 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Mannion/Wanamaker: -29 net rating (96 ORTG) in 10 minutes.
Mannion/Green: +5.1 net rating (92.4 ORTG) in 34 minutes.
Mannion/Bazemore: -20.4 net rating (99.4 ORTG) in 80 minutes.
Mannion/Looney: -4.7 net rating (108 ORTG) in 93 minutes.
Mannion/Paschall: -3.8 net rating (106.1 ORTG) in 94 minutes.
Mannion/Wiggins: -25 net rating (89.8 ORTG) in 107 minutes.
Mannion/Oubre: -15.2 net rating (101.9 ORTG) in 125 minutes.
Mannion/Mulder: +2.4 net rating (103.5 ORTG) in 125 minutes.
Mannion/Wiseman: -14.5 net rating (99.7 ORTG) in 137 minutes.
Mannion/Lee: -16.6 net rating (100 ORTG) in 138 minutes.
Mannion/JTA: -9 net rating (103.2 ORTG) in 155 minutes.
Mannion/Poole: -3.5 net rating (103.8 ORTG) in 245 minutes.
There were so few Nico Mannion 5 man combos that received significant run, so I listed all to receive >10 minutes, the 10 most used 3 man combos involving Mannion, and every 2 man combo with Mannion save for Gary Payton II, Jordan Bell, and Alen Smailagic. There’s some very obvious garbage time combos listed above. The combos I’m most interested in are the ones with non-garbage time players. You’ll note that Mannion barely played with Steph Curry and Draymond Green, thankfully. But when Steve Kerr tried to find workable bench lineups with Nico Mannion, pretty much nothing worked. Mannion and Wiggins were a disaster together, as were Mannion and Oubre (save for the first lineup combo in the 5 man list). It’s certainly possible that there simply weren’t any bench lineups that were ever going to work out with combos of Kelly Oubre Jr., Eric Paschall, Andrew Wiggins, and James Wiseman, but I still maintain there was no benefit to Nico Mannion getting significant run as the backup point guard at any point this season.
What comes next for Nico Mannion?
Nico Mannion spent his rookie year on a two-way contract, which as far as I can tell, was a one year deal. It’s possible that Steve Kerr and the Warriors’ front office are interested in keeping Mannion around long term — he went to Kerr’s alma mater, the University of Arizona, and it was reported by Ethan Sherwood Strauss that the Warriors loved how the rookie carried himself and envisioned him as someone who could have a long NBA career. Of course, Mannion became DNP fodder when Jordan Poole took the backup point guard position by sheer force of will and never looked back. But Steve Kerr has all but penciled in Jordan Poole’s as the team’s sixth man of the future and with an obvious need for additional, veteran ball handlers, it’s hard to imagine Mannion staking a claim to a roster spot on next year’s roster.
Mannion has a long way to go before he’s an NBA level guard. He is a capable passer and his pull-up 3 game is intriguing in a small sample size, but his poor defense, poor driving ability, and his inability to convert floaters or shots in the mid-range makes him a garbage time player for the foreseeable future. It’s not out of the question that Mannion can make improvements to his shot and work on his body over the summer, but is Nico Mannion really an organizational priority? I doubt it. As such, it is possible that Mannion follows the path of Damion Lee, Marquesse Chriss, and Juan-Toscano Anderson and takes another two-way deal with the hopes of eventually playing himself onto the roster. But that seems to me the only realistic path for Mannion to be on the Warriors’ next year — there is no world in which Nico Mannion is playing important minutes for next year’s Warriors team, barring complete and utter disaster.
Brad Wanamaker: D
Brad Wanamaker didn’t play his first minutes in the NBA until the relatively advanced age of 29. In two seasons with the Boston Celtics, he became a reliable, albeit occasionally frustrating backup guard. Wanamaker’s play in the bubble impressed Steve Kerr, who praised Wanamaker’s toughness and stability and predicted, “I could even see him playing with Steph.” In Anthony Slater’s article for The Athletic about Wanamaker’s signing, he pointed out that Wanamaker shot elite percentages from the three point line in catch and shoot situations and absolutely putrid percentages taking pull-up threes, “check out Wanamaker’s 3-point splits. He attempted 102 of them last season — 44 were pull-ups, 58 were catch-and-shoots off the pass. Wanamaker only made nine of those pull-ups (20 percent), but 28 of the catch-and-shoots (48 percent). Per NBA.com’s tracking model, Wanamaker hit 42 percent of his 3s when no defender was within six feet, but plummeted to 28 percent if anyone was within six feet.”. Slater’s conclusions about Wanamaker are prophetic: “It’s clear: If you create a 3 for him and no one is in his vicinity, there’s a great chance he’ll knock it down. But if he’s creating for himself or there’s a nearby contest, forget about it.”
Anthony Slater, who is paid significantly less than Steve Kerr is to think about the Golden State Warriors, is merely a beat writer. And yet, in nearly 800 words, Slater figured out something that Steve Kerr apparently did not — Brad Wanamaker should not be put in a position to create for himself or others. I was one of many Warriors fans who assumed that Wanamaker would mostly play off-ball next to Jordan Poole, who showed impressive passing ability in the second half of his rookie season and was lauded in the months leading up to the season for his work ethic and improvements made during the offseason. In the first five games of the season, Brad Wanamaker and Jordan Poole shared minutes in bench lineups, as many predicted. But... Jordan Poole was stuck in the corner while Brad Wanamaker made futile attempts to initiate for himself and others. Poole was banished to the end of the bench shortly after and Steve Kerr spent the next 30 or so games watching Wanamaker play himself out of the rotation and go into a prolonged shooting slump.
The Warriors recalled Jordan Poole and Nico Mannion from the G-League on March 1st. The next day, Steve Kerr told reporters on a Zoom call that Wanamaker’s ideal role would be playing off-ball next to playmakers, which was glaringly obvious to... well... pretty much anyone who had done even the slightest homework on Wanamaker’s stint with the Celtics. Brad Wanamaker got 16 minutes of play on March 4 in a game where Steph Curry and Draymond Green sat. That would be the last time Wanamaker received rotation minutes as Kerr then turned over ball handling responsibilities to Nico Mannion and Jordan Poole. Three weeks later, Wanamaker was traded to the Charlotte Hornets.
After Wanamaker was gone, I did not long for his return. But there’s no question in my mind that Wanamaker could have been moderately useful to the Warriors this year. In fact, he was, in the rare instances when he was used off-ball — in the lineup stats we’ll explore later on, we’ll see that Wanamaker played just fine next to Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Wanamaker is also the rare short guard who can hold his own 1-3 on defense. Do you think Wanamker might have been useful if he’d started the season off-ball next to Jordan Poole and hadn’t been pigeonholed into a role that exacerbated all of his worst qualities and resulted in the worst shooting percentages of his career? There’s no way Wanamaker could have been worse than Nico Mannion. Hell, I think I might have even trusted Brad Wanamaker to play spot minutes in the play-in game if he’d been used correctly. Shit, the Warriors might not have even had to go through the play-in tournament if Kerr had played Wanamaker off-ball next to Poole all year!
Again, I’m not longing for the return of Wanamaker, I’m simply frustrated he was misused, and frankly, I feel terrible for Wanamaker. He spent 7 years bouncing around the Euroleague and after establishing himself in the NBA, he got a contract from the Warriors — the Golden State fucking Warriors with Steph Curry and Draymond Green! This was probably a dream scenario for Wanamaker and what happened? His coach, who professed on several instances an affection for Wanamaker as a person and a player, put him in positions that diminished his effectiveness, to the point of taking him out of the rotation.
During the All-Star Break, Wanamaker posted something on Instagram that broke my heart into a million pieces; “Much needed break.. I believe in Me!”. How do you read that caption and not absolutely feel for the guy? Wanamaker was the target of lots of Twitter derision this season. I get it. He was terrible for the Warriors, but I’m sure that in the back of Wanamaker’s massive head, he thinks he got dealt a shitty hand during his Warriors’ stint. He’d be right to think that. Brad Wanamaker will be a free agent this year and after his performance with the Warriors, it’s very likely he might not get another NBA contract. If that is the case, Wanamaker will have every right to resent Steve Kerr for his fate.
Brad Wanamaker statistical profile (career bests bolded and league leaders italicized):
20-19 record in games played.
39 games played, 16 minutes a game, 4.7 points a game, 1.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 turnovers, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.8 fouls.
4.4 FGA, 1.6 3PA, 1.4 FTA.
BBREF: 100 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -1.1 +/- per 100 poss., -0.4 VORP, 0.36 WS/48, 16% USG.
NBA.com: 103.4 ORTG, 104.6 DRTG, -1.2 net rating, 17.6% USG.
35.3% FG, 21.3% 3P, 89.3% FT, 46.8 TS% (-10.4% league average TS), 44% EFG.
-0.8 DIFF in non-garbage time (47th percentile), 34th percentile usage, 6th percentile PSA, 64th percentile AST%, 86th percentile AST:Usg, and 7th percentile TOV% among combo position.
-4.4 OBPM, 0.3 DBPM, -4.4 BPM (#436 of 540 rank in Warriors’ stint).
-0.88 ORPM, -2.18 DRPM, -3.06 RPM (#492 rank of 534 for entire season).
-3.6 OFF, -0.3 DEF, -3.9 EPM (#421 rank of 505 for entire season).
By any statistical metric, it’s clear that Wanamaker was awful . I do think it’s curious that his +/- per 100 possessions isn’t in the sewer, but I suspect that’s a result of playing a fair amount of minutes next to Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Here’s a fun stat — on the day that Poole and Mannion were recalled from the G-League, Brad Wanamaker was tied for the most 4th quarter minutes played in IN THE ENTIRE NBA!
Brad Wanamaker’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 54.4% on 57 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 25% on 28 attempts.
Mid-range: 37% on 27 attempts.
Left corner 3: 0% on 3 attempts.
Right corner 3: 100% on 1 attempt.
Above the break 3: 21.1% on 57 attempts.
Floaters: 40% on 15 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 43.8% on 73 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 41.2%
Assisted by: Damion Lee (8), Eric Paschall (5), Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green (4), Kelly Oubre Jr. and Juan Toscano-Anderson (3), Stephen Curry, Mychal Mulder, and Kent Bazemore (2), Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney (1)
FGM% assisted: 57.3%.
FGM% unassisted: 42.7%.
Wanamaker’s shot profile in his Warriors’ stint is bleak. I don’t really know why his catch and shoot ability abandoned him — Wanamaker shot 40% on 25 catch and shoot 3’s in his first year with the Celtics and 48.3% on 58 attempts the following year — but it never came back. Even in his Hornets stint, Wanamaker struggled to shoot and made all of... 3 shots from the three point line on 24 attempts. Whatever bad juju occurred as a result of Brad Wanamaker being asked to make plays in Steve Kerr’s offense stuck to him like flies on shit, even on a new team.
The lineup stats!
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Wanamaker/Bazemore/Lee/Wiggins/Paschall: +8.1 net rating (102.6 ORTG) in 95 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Oubre/Wiggins/Paschall: -19.4 net rating (84.3 ORTG) in 39 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee/Wiggins/Paschall: +12 net rating (124.6 ORTG) in 32 minutes.
Wanamaker/Bazemore/Lee/Oubre/Paschall: +2.1 net rating (112.3 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Wiggins/JTA/Paschall: -7.9 net rating (96.1 ORTG) in 26 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Wiggins/Oubre/JTA: +10 net rating (110 ORTG) in 24 minutes.
Wanamaker/Poole/Lee/Oubre/Paschall: +3.7 net rating (93.9 ORTG) in 24 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee/Bazemore/Paschall: +36.6 net rating (122 ORTG) in 18 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Wiggins/Paschall/Wiseman: -26.4 net rating (71.1 ORTG) in 16 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee/Oubre/Paschall: -52.8 net rating (97.2 ORTG) in 16 minutes.
Note the absence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green in every single one of these lineups. Only in one of these lineups does Wanamaker share the court with another playmaker in Jordan Poole. The other thing that sticks out to me is that only two of the ten most used Wanamaker 5 man combos managed to get an ORTG at or above a league average 112.3 ORTG. Big yikes.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Wanamaker/Lee/Paschall: -5.6 net rating (101.7 ORTG) in 339 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Wiggins: +1.2 net rating (101.2 ORTG) in 306 minutes.
Wanamaker/Wiggins/Paschall: -9.7 net rating (93.8 ORTG) in 269 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Bazemore: +6.7 net rating (103.6 ORTG) in 199 minutes.
Wanamaker/Bazemore/Paschall: +7.1 net rating (101.7 ORTG) in 173 minutes.
Wanamaker/Lee/Oubre: -5.4 net rating (100 ORTG) in 161 minutes.
Wanamaker/Bazemore/Wiggins: -2 net rating (95.3 ORTG) in 140 minutes.
Wanamaker/Oubre/Paschall: -20.1 net rating (93.3 ORTG) in 138 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee: +7.5 net rating (114 ORTG) in 97 minutes.
Wanamaker/Wiggins/Oubre: -6.8 net rating (94.2 ORTG) in 89 minutes.
Note again, the absence of additional playmakers next to Wanamaker and the putrid ORTG’s of all these combos. Out of curiosity, I kept searching the combos to see how long it would take to find Wanamaker/Curry/Green. They were the 19th most used Wanamaker combo. Their net rating? A very good +20.7 with a 126.4 ORTG in 56 minutes. Shocking! In fact, most Wanamaker 3 man combos with the starters performed well in small ish sample sizes — Wanamaker/Wiggins/Green had a +17.9 net rating and 123.1 ORTG, Wanamaker/Curry/Wiggins was +38.6 with a 140.8 ORTG, hell even Wanamaker/Wiggins/Looney managed to rock a positive net rating of +16.7 despite a below average ORTG of 108.9.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Wanamaker/Lee: -0.8 net rating (103.4 ORTG) in 475 minutes.
Wanamaker/Paschall: -8.6 net rating (98.7 ORTG) in 417 minutes.
Wanamaker/Wiggins: -0.7 net rating (102 ORTG) in 400 minutes.
Wanamaker/Bazemore: +5 net rating (101.4 ORTG) in 245 minutes.
Wanamaker/Oubre: -4.3 net rating (101.4 ORTG) in 209 minutes.
Wanamaker/Poole: -12.9 net rating (95.1 ORTG) in 134 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder: +8.2 net rating (111.8 ORTG) in 126 minutes.
Wanamaker/JTA: +6.2 net rating (101.2 ORTG) in 120 minutes.
Wanamaker/Wiseman: -5.4 net rating (95 ORTG) in 109 minutes.
Wanamaker/Green: +13.4 net rating (118.4 ORTG) in 95 minutes.
Wanamaker/Curry: +13.9 net rating (125.5 ORTG) in 83 minutes.
Wanamaker/Looney: +8.6 net rating (104.7 ORTG) in 61 minutes.
Brad Wanamaker had the misfortune of being played in a role that Steve Kerr later admitted he was ill suited for. The lineup stats bear that out. Wanamaker was a staple of the second unit while Kerr shuffled players in and out of the 2nd and 4th quarter bench units in the first 30 games or so of the season. Pretty much all the combinations he tried failed. But what’s fascinating to me looking at the 2 man combos in conjunction with the above 5 and 3 man combos is that Wanamaker seemed to play quite well with the starters and the veteran core of Curry/Green/Looney. This is amusing to me especially when one considers how difficult it was for James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre Jr. to play in Steve Kerr’s system. Wanamaker was clearly capable of doing that and playing off-ball to a playmaker, and yet, he rarely got to do so and instead was central to some of the most feckless and offensively challenged bench lineups I remember seeing. Great stuff!
What’s next for Brad Wanamaker?
There’s effectively 0 chance Wanamaker ever comes back to the Golden State Warriors, although I submit that he’d actually be just fine now that Jordan Poole has taken the reins of the second unit for the foreseeable future. Instead, Wanamaker is probably sitting at home absolutely terrified that he’s played himself out of the NBA. Wanamaker will be 32 at the start of next season, an age where most players begin to see significant declines in performance. If you’re an NBA GM and you look at Wanamaker’s numbers from this past season and see his awful shooting percentages, why would you be interested in giving a 32 year old journeyman anything more than a training camp invite, if that? The most likely outcome for Wanamaker is a stint in the G-League or a return to Europe and as much as I’d like to bash him for his play this year, it’s hard for me to not just feel terrible for the guy. Alas, feeling terrible about how the Warriors’ fucked up individual players — if not the entire season — is something of a consistent theme in this newsletter. Aren’t you looking forward to my next post?
About that! I’m going to get working on part 2 of my reviews for the Warriors’ guards and I’d like to have that out by Friday or Saturday. I’ll be in Hawaii for about a week — there is no fucking way I’ll be doing any posting during that week — so when I get back, I’ll get back to my season in review posts.