The Warriors’ season-in-review — the bigs part 2: Juan Toscano-Anderson, Kevon Looney, and Draymond Green
The hyper efficiency of Juan Toscano-Anderson and his various Draymond moments, the defensive prowess of Kevon Looney, and the blame Draymond Green should take for this season.
Juan Toscano-Anderson: B+
You probably know Juan Toscano-Anderson’s story by now; he grew up in East Oakland and starred at Castro Valley High School, played four years of college ball at Marquette University, and then spent three years playing professionally in Mexico before getting an invite to the Santa Cruz Warriors’ training camp in 2018.
In two years in the G-League, Toscano-Anderson put up solid but unspectacular numbers. If you look at his percentages (47/30/63 splits in his G-League career) you might not see an NBA player, but his intangibles earned him a call up to the Golden State Warriors’ roster in the spring of 2020 on a partially guaranteed contract.
In 13 NBA games last season, Toscano-Anderson played tough defense, kept the ball moving, cut at opportune moments, and shot above his G-League percentages from three.
In training camp of this season, Toscano-Anderson lost his roster spot to Mychal Mulder and signed a two-way contract to stay with the Warriors.
After Eric Paschall performed poorly in Draymond Green’s place in the first two games of the regular season, Juan Toscano-Anderson started the next two games and the Warriors got their first victories of the season. Upon Green’s return, Toscano-Anderson was relegated to spot minutes and didn’t get consistent minutes again until James Wiseman sprained his wrist.
In that first stint without Wiseman, JTA started 10 games and averaged 8.5 points a game, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 54/44/78 splits. But when Wiseman came back, Toscano-Anderson went back to the bench and played infrequently outside of blowouts. Before James Wiseman sprained his meniscus, Toscano-Anderson actually sat out the previous two games.
After Wiseman’s knee injury, Toscano-Anderson averaged nearly 30 minutes a game and the Warriors went 14-4 in the games he played. Toscano-Anderson hit clutch shots in big games, frustrated and trashed talked opponents, and made the hustle play of the season in a close loss to the Boston Celtics and concussed himself diving for a loose ball to get Steph Curry an open three. In a short period of time, Toscano-Anderson made it clear that the Warriors needed him in the stretch run of the season.
In the Warriors’ loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in-tournament, Juan Toscano-Anderson played the final 12 minutes of the season. I don’t think there was a single Warriors’ fan who disagreed with that choice and that in itself, is remarkable. Toscano-Anderson should be a key part of the Warriors’ rotation next season, just two years removed from playing in the G-League — that’s a huge win for the Warriors.
Juan Toscano-Anderson’s statistical profile (career bests bolded):
53 games played, 20.9 minutes a game, 5.7points a game, 4.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 2.1 fouls.
57.9% FG, 40.2% 3P, 71% FT, 67.6 TS% (+10.4% league average TS), 66.7% EFG (+12.9 league average EFG).
3.8 FGA, 1.7 3PA, 0.6 FTA.
BBREF: 121 ORTG, 109 DRTG, +3.8 +/- per 100 poss., 0.7 VORP, 1.30 WS/48, 11% USG.
NBA.com: 109.4 ORTG, 105.6 DRTG, +3.8 net rating, 10.8% USG.
+3.2 DIFF in non-garbage time (69th percentile), 14th percentile usage, 93rd percentile PSA, 88th percentile AST%, 99th percentile AST:Usg, 6th percentile TOV% among big position.
-0.30 ORPM, -0.20 DRPM, -0.5 RPM (#177 rank of 534 players).
The biggest reason that Juan Toscano-Anderson became a legitimate NBA player this year is that he turned himself into a credible three point shooter, albeit on low volume. Although Juan didn’t shoot a lot this year, he picked his spots very well and was a hyper-efficient shotmaker.
The bigger question is whether or not Toscano-Anderson will ever be a high volume three point shooter. If Juan were able to shoot at or above league average on a volume similar to, say, Jae Crowder (7.6 3PA per 36 minutes in his last four seasons), he could easily command north of $7 million annually on his next contract as he’s already a good defender and playmaker at the 4.
In the first 35 games of the season, Toscano-Anderson averaged 2.1 assists in 17.4 minutes a game. After James Wiseman’s meniscus injury, JTA took a much bigger role in the Warriors’ offense and averaged 4.3 assists in 27.7 minutes a game. Juan’s offensive game took on the shape of the younger and more aggressive version of Draymond Green and learned to manipulate defenders in DHO situations and stroll into open dunks in the lane. Here’s a few examples of that:
Like Draymond, Toscano-Anderson also demonstrated a flair for making connective passes to cutters.
Watch here how Juan seeks out Steph Curry for a dribble handoff ala Draymond.
In a meaningless game against the Pelicans that Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins sat out, Juan Toscano-Anderson got the start at the PF with Jordan Poole at the point guard. This highlight video is littered with Poole/JTA two-man actions that resemble the famed chemistry of Steph Curry and Draymond Green.
There is, however, a more unfortunate way that Juan Toscano-Anderson also resembles Draymond Green — turnovers. Cleaning the Glass ranks Toscano-Anderson in the 99th percentile as a passer and in assist to turnovers among bigs, but he’s in the 6th percentile for turnovers among bigs. It’s almost comical how similar his turnovers are to Draymond’s — both players have a tendency to overpass on the short roll, pass ahead to cutters who have not realized they should cut towards the pass, and make risky homerun passes.
Juan Toscano-Anderson’s performance in the play-in games:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 25:54 minutes, 9 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 steals, 1 block, 2 fouls, and 1 turnover, 3/7 FG, 2/5 3P, 1/2 FT, 109 ORTG, 108 DRTG, 57.1 TS% (-0.1 league average TS and -9.5 regular season TS), 57.1 EFG% (+3.3 regular season EFG and -9.6 regular season EFG).
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 31:41 minutes, 4 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, 2 fouls, and 4 turnovers, 1/5 FG, 0/2 3P, 2/2 FT, 79 ORTG, 117 DRTG, 34% TS (-23.2 league average TS and -32.7 regular season TS), and 20% EFG (-33.8 league average TS and -46.7 regular season EFG).
Juan Toscano-Anderson looked in his element in the first half of the play-in game vs. the Lakers. In a little more than 17 minutes, Toscano-Anderson took the ball to the hole against LeBron James in transition, hit two threes, and had 5 rebounds and a steal.
Early in the 4th quarter, Toscano-Anderson gave up a foul and a bucket to LeBron James in quick succession and Steve Kerr pulled him out of the game to put in... Mychal Mulder? Toscano-Anderson played only 3:12 minutes in the 4th quarter of the play-in game against the Lakers and I think Steve Kerr overreacted when he yanked Toscano-Anderson for Mulder.
Toscano-Anderson played the final 12 minutes of the season against the Grizzlies, but was quite wild with the ball and didn’t hit open shots. It was absolutely the right decision to close the game with Juan Toscano-Anderson, but mistakes he made earlier in the game were costly.
One 4th quarter turnover of the Draymond variety sticks out; watch how Steph Curry gets doubled at the right wing, gives the ball to Juan and cuts towards the hoop, only for Toscano-Anderson to fire a doomed, one-handed bounce pass into the hands of Kyle Anderson.
In a game where every possession mattered, Toscano-Anderson’s four turnovers against the Grizzlies hurt the Warriors. While Toscano-Anderson exceeded all expectations this year to become a closing player for the Warriors, I’d probably prefer that Juan not be an obvious candidate to close.
Juan Toscano-Anderson’s shooting profile:
Restricted area: 76.6% on 94 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 47.6% on 21 attempts.
Mid-range: 100% on 2 attempts.
Left corner 3: 28.6% on 14 attempts.
Right corner 3: 41.2% on 16 attempts.
Above the break 3: 44.1% on 59 attempts.
Floaters: 0% on 3 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 69.3% on 88 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 42.8%.
Assisted by: Stephen Curry (34), Draymond Green (26), Andrew Wiggins (13), Jordan Poole and Nico Mannion (8), Kent Bazemore (6), Kelly Oubre Jr. (3), Brad Wanamaker and Mychal Mulder (2), Eric Paschall and Kevon Looney (1).
FGM% assisted: 85.9%
FGM% unassisted: 14.1%
Juan Toscano-Anderson’s elite efficiency as a shotmaker is due almost entirely to his shot selection. Juan has taken only 5 mid-range shots in his NBA career because he mostly shoots threes and paint shots. Juan has only made two pull-up threes in his NBA career and has only taken three pull-up mid range shots in his time in the NBA.
Juan Toscano-Anderson has no desire to create for himself at this point in his career. That’s fine, but I think I’d trade 5 or so points in efficiency for a little more offensive juice from Juan if it meant that teams respected him more offensively. I do not want Juan Toscano-Anderson to take pull-up threes, but if he upped his volume on threes and maintained respectable percentages, defenses would close out on his shots more aggressively. This in turn would give Juan and the rest of the team more driving lanes.
Let’s look now at Toscano-Anderson’s numbers on floaters and his numbers on drives. He’s taken just three floaters in his NBA career. If Juan doesn’t see a clear lane to the hoop, he’s likely to pass the ball. Passing is good and I’m in favor of Juan Toscano-Anderson passing the ball because he’s a smart player, but Juan passed the ball on 46% of his drives, turned it over on 12.6% of his drives, and shot the ball 42.3% of the time he drove the ball. More than half of the time he drove the ball, Juan Toscano-Anderson didn’t look to shoot and no Warrior turned the ball over more frequently on drives than him.
The Warriors would benefit from Toscano-Anderson being a more aggressive scorer on the drive. An occasional floater here and there at the expense of elite efficiency on low volume would raise Juan’s ceiling and the Warriors’ offensive ceiling. Right now, defenses know that Juan Toscano-Anderson doesn’t look to shoot the ball. If this is the reputation he makes for himself in the NBA, defenders will be happy to defend him like Draymond Green and sag off of him when he has the ball to overplay passing lanes.
Here’s Juan’s shot chart from Positive Residual:
The lineup stats!
We’ll start with Cleaning the Glass’ non-garbage time lineups.
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +9 net rating (119.4 ORTG) in 324 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +3 net rating (11.5 ORTG) in 155 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Green: +27.6 net rating (143.4 ORTG) in 99 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -15.4 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 92 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Wiseman: -6.9 net rating (83.9 ORTG) in 87 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +8.8 net rating (97.6 ORTG) in 82 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +23.1 net rating (124.6 ORTG) in 65 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/JTA/Green: +24.1 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 54 possessions.
Poole/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Wiseman: -41.2 net rating (101.9 ORTG) in 52 possessions.
Wanamaker/Lee/Wiggins/JTA/Paschall: -11.8 net rating (92.2 ORTG) in 51 possessions.
Wanamaker/Lee/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA: +14.4 net rating (112.2 ORTG) in 49 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Mulder/JTA/Green: +24.3 net rating (126.7 ORTG) in 45 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Lee/JTA/Green: +31.3 net rating (143.2 ORTG) in 44 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +46.3 net rating (141.9 ORTG) in 43 possessions.
There’s nothing too surprising here — the JTA/Green frontcourt is excellent together, put Steph Curry and Jordan Poole next to JTA/Green and you’re really cooking, and so forth. There’s only one positive 5 man combo here with Juan next to a true C, but it scores at a far below league average rate. Predictably, Juan Toscano-Anderson does not seem to pair well with James Wiseman or Eric Paschall.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/JTA/Green: +12.2 net rating (118.7 ORTG) in 467 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/JTA: +9.2 net rating (111.7 ORTG) in 385 minutes.
Wiggins/JTA/Green: +11.8 net rating (115.2 ORTG) in 339 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/JTA: +0.3 net rating (105.8 ORTG) in 324 minutes.
Wiggins/Oubre/JTA: -2.1 net rating (104.9 ORTG) in 301 minutes.
Oubre/JTA/Green: +6.4 net rating (111.4 ORTG) in 231 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/JTA: +4.6 net rating (108.8 ORTG) in 223 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/JTA: -0.6 net rating (107 ORTG) in 207 minutes.
Bazemore/JTA/Green: +5.9 net rating (111.6 ORTG) in 193 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/JTA: +12.3 net rating (113.9 ORTG) in 170 minutes.
Poole/JTA/Looney: +11.7 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 166 minutes.
Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA: +11.1 net rating (106.8 ORTG) in 159 minutes.
Poole/Mulder/JTA: +6.2 net rating (108.4 ORTG) in 152 minutes.
Mulder/JTA/Green: +13 net rating (120.8 ORTG) in 148 minutes.
Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +3.0 net rating (102.6 ORTG) in 145 minutes.
Lots of good stuff here almost all in 3 lineups that were likely combined with one of Steph Curry or Draymond Green. It’s curious that Curry/Bazemore/JTA doesn't come out positive, but it is very encouraging that most of these combos, even ones with Mychal Mulder or Jordan Poole, hold their own on defense.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Wiggins/JTA: +5.5 net rating (108.6 ORTG) in 687 minutes.
Curry/JTA: +6.8 net rating (111.8 ORTG) in 636 minutes.
JTA/Green: +10.9 net rating (116.7 ORTG) in 524 minutes.
Oubre/JTA: -6.8 net rating (102.4 ORTG) in 458 minutes.
Poole/JTA: +4.4 net rating (111.1 ORTG) in 441 minutes.
Bazemore/JTA: +4.1 net rating (106.7 ORTG) in 349 minutes.
Mulder/JTA: +7.5 net rating (109 ORTG) in 337 minutes.
JTA/Looney: +1.7 net rating (105.4 ORTG) in 227 minutes.
Lee/JTA: +5.6 net rating (109.9 ORTG) in 214 minutes.
Mannion/JTA: -9 net rating (103.2 ORTG) in 155 minutes.
JTA/Wiseman: -4.3 net rating (100.9 ORTG) in 154 minutes.
Wanamaker/JTA: +6.2 net rating (101.2 ORTG) in 120 minutes.
Paschall/JTA: -6.1 net rating (95.7 ORTG) in 76 minutes.
If we want to nitpick Juan Toscano-Anderson’s performance this year, the below league average ORTG of every 2 man combo listed here might be mildly concerning. I’m reluctant to read too much into that, but becoming a more credible offensive threat could help JTA’s bench lineups score at a more tolerable rate.
What’s next for Juan Toscano-Anderson?
When Juan Toscano-Anderson finally received his guaranteed contract from the Warriors in May, Warriors fans rejoiced. And then they realized that Juan can become a free agent after next season.
The Warriors can offer Toscano-Anderson a qualifying offer of about $2.1 million next summer, but if he rejects the qualifying offer, he can become a restricted free agent, at which point the Warriors can match any offer made to him. Frankly, I was shocked that Toscano-Anderson didn’t get more money out of the Warriors when he signed his first ever guaranteed contract, but Juan is betting — rightly — that he can cash out next summer if he keeps up his level of play.
I can’t imagine a scenario next season in which Toscano-Anderson isn’t a staple of the Warriors’ rotation. The JTA/Green frontline was excellent this year and allowed the Warriors to not only survive, but win minutes with Jordan Poole or Mychal Mulder next to Steph Curry. The Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Green lineup destroyed teams in a small sample size — imagine how those lineups would look with just a limited version of Klay Thompson in place of Poole or Wiggins. Juan Toscano-Anderson will probably play lots of minutes with the starters and the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters of games and if his shot improves, the bench units he’s in may actually... have a chance at holding their own offensively.
Juan Toscano-Anderson is a fighter and he’s a winning basketball player. But it’s worth remembering that Juan will also be 29 next summer and smack in the middle of his prime earning years as an NBA player. It would be a huge shock to me if he plays worse next year on a better team than he did this year, so I think his bet on himself is likely to pay off in free agency next summer. If Juan does what I think he’s capable of next season, the 2022-2023 projected taxpayer MLE of approximately $6.2 million dollars will be below his market value. If he bumps up his three point shooting volume and gets more aggressive getting to the hoop, I think Juan could be a starter in the NBA.
I don’t think there’s any way that Draymond Green’s body will ever be ready for a full season starting at the C, so there's not really a path to Juan starting for his hometown Warriors, but why couldn’t he start for a team like the Dallas Mavericks, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Miami Heat, or the Los Angeles Lakers?
Juan Toscano-Anderson will be Bay Area royalty even if he never plays another game for the Warriors, so I don’t think anyone would begrudge him if he sought out a bigger role for himself. My hope is that the Warriors don’t play hardball with Juan in restricted free agency next summer if he shows himself to be worth a sizable contract. Juan is a perfect fit with this Warriors team and I want nothing more than for him to become a postseason hero with his hometown team and retire in Warriors jersey.
Kevon Looney: B
A year ago, I had legitimate concerns that Kevon Looney might not finish his three year contract with the Warriors because of injuries. In the nightmare that was the 2019 Finals, Kevon Looney fractured his collarbone defending a Kawhi Leonard drive. Looney sat out just one game and then played through the injury and while that was an incredibly brave and selfless decision, it clearly had a negative impact on Looney.
Last year, Looney played just 20 games and never looked right physically. He missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury and then in October, the Warriors announced that Looney would be out indefinitely with... a chronic nerve injury? What in the world? Here’s Steve Kerr on Looney’s injury:
It's kind of a neuropathic condition that he's had for a couple years. It's something he's been able to play through, but in this particular case, the condition is affecting his hamstring.
Looney missed a stretch of 20 games, 18 games, and then the final 5 games of the season before the COVID-19 pandemic. In May of last year, Looney had surgery to repair a core muscle injury. For those of you keeping track, that would be Looney’s fourth significant injury and rehabilitation, all before turning 25.
Looney and the Warriors were publicly optimistic about his health and it turns out that optimism was warranted! Looney missed 10 games with an ankle sprain and later had a false positive COVID-19 test, but otherwise played more or less exactly how you’d expect him to do when he’s healthy.
After the starting lineup with James Wiseman faltered early in the season, Looney got moved into the starting lineup. Looney set typically great screens for Steph Curry, rarely got burned on switches, crashed the offensive glass, and even showed some more passing verve than he has in years past. Looney lost his starting spot to Wiseman during a developmental push midseason when the Warriors looked dead in the water, but finished the year as the Warriors’ starting center after Wiseman’s meniscus.
Kevon Looney is the third longest tenured Warrior and he’s a real veteran now, even though he’s always looked and moved like one. Looney even took on something of a leadership role for this young Warriors’ team as outlined by The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson in a May article on Steph Curry’s MVP caliber season:
After Stephen Curry scored 30 points on 38 shots in the first two games [of the season], struggling to get free, Warriors’ big man Kevon Looney had an issue he needed to address: he didn’t like how they were screening for Curry. This was his area of expertise so he felt the need to do something about it.
The entire roster knew any success by the Warriors was contingent upon a monster season from Curry. Looney knew weak screens were working against their success. So Looney went to Green, the other expert screener.
“Me and Draymond, we know how to set screens for Steph,” Looney said. “But with a lot of different guys playing with him, guys were struggling to set screens. And I’m telling Draymond we’ve got to do better than that.”
So Green had some film cut together, showing proper ways to screen in their offense, which is the secret to freeing Curry. He then organized a session to watch and teach. They covered flare screens, pin-downs, their famed elevator play, staggered screens, dribble handoffs. Rookie center James Wiseman took part. So did second-year players Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson. Most of the young players were involved, including the guards. They learned about the rhythm of screens in the Warriors’ offense and effective angles for Curry to lose the defender tailing him.
Looney called it “Screen School.” Green was the instructor.
“I was the teacher’s assistant,” Looney said.
By season’s end, Looney led the Warriors with 197 screen assists (when a screen leads to a basket). Green had 192 — and that doesn’t count dribble handoffs, which don’t count in screen assists but is a staple to the Green-Curry two-man game. The Warriors had a team of players who knew the intricacies and tricks of detouring defenders. And Curry had his second career scoring title.
Before this season, Kevon Looney had never played more than 30 minutes in an NBA game. After James Wiseman went down with a meniscus injury, Looney did that four separate times in the final 20 games of the season. Looney’s best game of the season came in 33 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers where he scored a mere 5 points, but had 15 rebounds and played excellent defense against MVP candidate, Joel Embiid.
Looney’s solid defense against the league’s premier bigs and ball handlers will never stop being amusing to me. Despite moving like late-career Antonio McDyess, Looney is unflappable on defense — that is, unless he’s facing his personal kryptonite, Enes Kanter.
I’m not comfortable expexting Looney to give the Warriors 60-70 games a season given his injury history, but there’s no doubt that Kevon Looney can play deep into the playoffs and provide reliable minutes against the league’s best players. So long as Looney is healthy, he and Draymond Green make an excellent defensive duo in the playoffs.
The Warriors absolutely need another big to eat up minutes and could benefit from having another switchable PF/C, but I don’t think there’s more than 10 bigs in the league whose defense I trust more in crunch time than Kevon Looney’s. Although he has his limitations, Kevon Looney is the type of player every team in the NBA could use and I’m thrilled he was healthy enough to show that this season.
Kevon Looney’s statistical profile (career bests bolded):
61 games played, 19.0 minutes a game, 4.1points a game, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.6 turnovers, 0.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 2.2 fouls.
54.8% FG, 23.5% 3P, 64.6% FT, 57.5 TS% (+0.3% league average TS), 55.8% EFG (+2.0 league average EFG).
3.2 FGA, 0.3 3PA, 0.8 FTA.
BBREF: 130 ORTG, 111 DRTG, +6.5 +/- per 100 poss., 0.2 VORP, 1.39 WS/48, 9.4% USG.
+6.00 DIFF in non-garbage time (84th percentile), 4th percentile usage, 44th percentile PSA, 79th percentile AST%, 99th percentile AST:Usg, 47th percentile TOV% among big position.
-2.63 ORPM, +1.47 DRPM, -1.16 RPM (#271 rank of 534 players).
Looney’s impact stats are unspectacular. He doesn’t score the ball much, and his efficiency is right around league average, but good things happen when he’s on the court. The bulk of the good things Looney does are on defense and all the impact stats agree that he’s solid on that end.
Looney had a career high 2 assists per game and per 36 minutes, he’s just short of averaging 4 assists a game. Looney got 29.8 touches per game, a career high, and took on a more active role in orchestrating the offense than he did in years past. This is a nice example of Looney doing Kerr system things:
Here’s another:
The one disappointing thing with Looney’s season is that he did not take or make many threes. For the third year in a row, the Warriors have talked about Looney shooting more threes and it has never happened. Here’s an article on the elusive Looney three from 2018, one from 2019, and another from this season. Looney actually shot over 40% in college from three and was touted as... a perimeter creator coming out of high school. Seriously, watch these highlights.
Kevon Looney has played 6 seasons in the NBA without really shooting threes so it’s safe to say that his three point shot is more myth than reality, ala David Lee, which is a shame. Looney is absolutely a player who can close games in the playoffs, but his lack of offensive firepower puts a ceiling on his minutes. If Looney shot threes as often as Juan Toscano-Anderson on respectable percentages, it would be easier to find minutes for him in bench lineups without tanking the Warriors’ offense.
Kevon Looney’s performance in the play-in games:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 19:53 minutes, 6 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 steals, 2 block, 2 fouls, and 0 turnovers, 3/6 FG, 0/0 3P, 0/0 FT, 136 ORTG, 96 DRTG, 50.0 TS% (-7.3 league average TS and -7.5 regular season TS), 50 EFG% (-5.8 regular season EFG and -3.8 regular season EFG).
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 24:27 minutes, 3 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 fouls, and 1 turnover, 1/1 FG, 0/0 3P, 1/2 FT, 114 ORTG, 114 DRTG, 79.8% TS (+22.6 league average TS and +22.4 regular season TS), and 100% EFG (+46.2 league average TS and +44.2 regular season EFG).
Kevon Looney was very solid in the play-in game against the Lakers, particularly in the first half that the Warriors finished with a 13 point lead. Looney grabbed 11 boards in a little over 12 minutes in the first half, but only played 7 minutes in the second half and less than a minute in the deciding fourth quarter. I think Steve Kerr might regret that decision.
In that fourth quarter, Kerr made a very uncharacteristic decision to prioritize spacing over defense and Mychal Mulder played more minutes than Kent Bazemore, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Kevon Looney did combined. Anthony Davis scored 13 of his 25 points in that fourth quarter after the Lakers went away from the LeBron/AD pick and roll in order to avoid Draymond Green.
Davis’ scoring opportunities in the 4th quarter were opportunistic and he scored on offensive rebounds, baseline cuts, and kick-out jumpers.. I’ve wondered since if the Lakers may have been goaded into trying to beat the Warriors with two point shots from Davis if Steve Kerr had stuck Looney on him and freed up Draymond Green to roam off-ball in the 4th quarter.
Looney’s performance against the Grizzlies was far less memorable. He was solid but I think Steve Kerr made the right decision closing the game with the Juan Toscano-Anderson/Draymond Green frontcourt over Looney.
Restricted area: 67.5% on 123 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 32.4% on 34 attempts.
Mid-range: 43.5% on 23 attempts.
Left corner 3: 20% on 5 attempts.
Right corner 3: 0% on 1 attempt.
Above the break 3: 27.3% on 11 attempts.
Floaters: 100% on 5 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 57% on 107 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 54.8%.
Assisted by: Stephen Curry (16), Draymond Green (14), Jordan Poole (12), Kent Bazemore (8), Andrew Wiggins (6), Juan Toscano-Anderson (5), Nico Mannion (4), Kelly Oubre Jr. (2), Brad Wanamaker, Eric Paschall, and Brad Wanamaker (1).
FGM% assisted: 64.8%
FGM% unassisted: 35.2%
Would you ever have guessed that Kevon Looney created more of his own points than Juan Toscano-Anderson or James Wiseman? One of my favorite things about Kevon Looney is that he will occasionally take advantage of an unsuspecting defender who does not expect Looney to take him off of the dribble. In this example, Dwight Howard is flummoxed by Looney faking a dribble handoff in order to take a spinning, stepback jumpshot in the paint.
The moments when Looney digs into his AAU point guard bag are hilarious and infrequent enough that they aren’t bothersome, unlike Kent Bazemore’s 52 pull-up jump shot attempts this season. Although (and because) Looney doesn’t take a lot of shots off of the dribble, he’s actually pretty efficient when he chooses to do so.
Looney was also elite as a roll man on very low volume and ranked highest on the Warriors in points-per-possession as the roll man at 1.39 PPP, which is in the 92nd percentile of the league. But Looney only received 0.3 possessions a game as a roll man — even Jordan Clarkson, the Jazz’s explosive bench guard, got more possessions per game as a roll man than Looney.
The only other thing of note here is that the percentage of Looney’s unassisted shots is a bit deceiving because 18 of 38 Looney’s unassisted buckets on the season came on tip-ins. Remove those and only 18.5% of Looney’s buckets on the season are unassisted.
Here’s Looney’s shot profile visualized by Positive Residual:
The lineup stats!
We’ll start with Cleaning the Glass’ non-garbage time numbers.
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.6 net rating (116.9 ORTG) in 563 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +5.8 net rating (112.2 ORTG) in 401 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -15.4 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 92 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +13.2 net rating (132.6 ORTG) in 86 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +8.8 net rating (97.6 ORTG) in 82 possessions.
Mannion/Poole/Lee/Oubre/Looney: +5 net rating (103.3 ORTG) in 60 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Green/Looney: +19.2 net rating (114 ORTG) in 57 possessions.
Curry/Lee/Bazemore/Oubre/Looney: -10.2 net rating (95.9 ORTG) in 49 possessions.
Poole/Lee/Bazemore/Oubre/Looney: -20 net rating (82.2 ORTG) in 45 possessions.
Poole/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Looney: -11.3 net rating (86.4 ORTG) in 44 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Paschall/Looney: -31.3 net rating (93.8 ORTG) in 32 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Looney: +43.3 net rating (150 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -66.3 net rating (81.5 ORTG) in 27 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/JTA/Looney: -59.4 net rating (84.6 ORTG) in 26 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Oubre/Wiggins/Looney: +57.3 net rating (124 ORTG) in 25 possessions.
There’s a huge drop off in minutes after the first two combos, which are two of the starting lineups that Steve Kerr used most this year. There’s only two lineups without Steph Curry that scored above a league average rate in a small sample size. For the most part, Looney in bench lineups means the Warriors are going to struggle to score and that problem gets worse when there’s anyone other than Draymond Green or Wiggins in the frontcourt next to Looney. The lone lineup with a Paschall/Looney is an early season abomination that Steve Kerr trotted out as he experimented with his rotations.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Wiggins/Looney: +10.2 net rating (118.8 ORTG) in 617 minutes.
Curry/Green/Looney: +15.2 net rating (119.7 ORTG) in 582 minutes.
Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.7 net rating (116.5 ORTG) in 567 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Looney: +8.2 net rating (113.8 ORTG) in 416 minutes.
Bazemore/Wiggins/Looney: +8 net rating (111.2 ORTG) in 388 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Looney: +6 net rating (110.3 ORTG) in 336 minutes.
Bazemore/Green/Looney: +11.2 net rating (114.9 ORTG) in 320 minutes.
Wiggins/Oubre/Looney: +3.8 net rating (108.2 ORTG) in 275 minutes.
Oubre/Green/Looney: +10.9 net rating (112.4 ORTG) in 245 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Looney: +7.2 net rating (104.8 ORTG) in 225 minutes.
Poole/JTA/Looney: +11.7 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 166 minutes.
Poole/Bazemore/Looney: +11.1 net rating (106.9 ORTG) in 149 minutes.
Poole/Oubre/Looney: -2.3 net rating (100.3 ORTG) in 146 minutes.
Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +3 net rating (102.6 ORTG) in 145 minutes.
Lots of positive combos here, most of which are variants of the Warriors’ starting or closing lineups. I’m most surprised by the Poole/JTA/Looney combo scoring above league average. I’d prefer Looney spend most of his minutes with the starters, but you might be able to survive some 2nd and 4th quarter minutes with those three surrounded by shooters.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Wiggins/Looney: +6.6 net rating (113 ORTG) in 849 minutes.
Curry/Looney: +10.7 net rating (117.1 ORTG) in 798 minutes.
Green/Looney: +12.9 net rating (117.4 ORTG) in 621 minutes.
Bazemore/Looney: +6.5 net rating (110.4 ORTG) in 596 minutes.
Oubre/Looney: +1.7 net rating (106.8 ORTG) in 479 minutes.
Poole/Looney: +4.8 net rating (106.6 ORTG) in 377 minutes.
Lee/Looney: +6.8 net rating (112.6 ORTG) in 234 minutes.
JTA/Looney: +1.7 net rating (105.4 ORTG) in 227 minutes.
Mulder/Looney: -0.8 net rating (106.4 ORTG) in 198 minutes.
Paschall/Looney: -17.3 net rating (98.2 ORTG) in 103 minutes.
Mannion/Looney: -4.7 net rating (108 ORTG) in 93 minutes.
Wanamaker/Looney: +8.6 net rating (104.7 ORTG) in 61 minutes.
Not a lot of surprises here. Maybe two man combos aren’t the most informative lineup stats, but I do think that the numbers back up my belief that the JTA/Looney frontcourt struggles to score
What’s next for Kevon Looney?
Although he has a player option on his contract for this summer, I doubt Kevon Looney exercises it, given his injury history and his comfort with the Warriors’ organization. I’d be shocked if Looney isn’t on the roster next season. He has deep institutional knowledge of the Warriors’ system, he’s a good defensive big in the playoffs, and Steve Kerr loves him. However, Looney does have one of the few non-maximum and non-minimum salaries on the roster so it’s not out of the question that he could be salary filler in a big trade.
Looney was the Warriors’ best center this season and he’s a near lock to be better than James Wiseman for the next year or two, health permitting. Because Wiseman will spend most of his summer rehabbing his torn meniscus, it’s doubtful he’ll be ready for big minutes at the beginning of the season, so it’s likely Kevon Looney is the incumbent starter if both players are on the roster next season.
But James Wiseman’s presence complicates things. Eventually, Wiseman will need to get heavy minutes with Steph Curry and Draymond Green. For the time being, those minutes can come at the end of the 1st and 3rd quarters. But if Wiseman is the long-term C for the Warriors, where does that leave Looney next summer as a free agent and as Wiseman grows?
If his body is right, Kevon Looney could help playoff teams that already have offensive firepower like the Boston Celtics, the Portland Trail Blazers, or the Dallas Mavericks. Those teams may not offer Looney a starting spot, but as Draymond Green ages and the NBA downsizes, the Warriors’ center minutes will probably be covered entirely by Wiseman and Green.
But this next season, the Warriors should be chasing wins and Bob Myers today after the NBA released their lottery results that winning will be prioritized over development. If that is indeed the case, Kevon Looney should play 20-25 minutes a game next year, setting screens, switching onto elite guards, getting timely offensive rebounds, and closing when needed.
Draymond Green: B-
After an underwhelming 2019-2020 season, Draymond Green was named to his fourth All-Defensive First Team as he dragged this season’s green (hehe) and undersized Warriors to a top-five defensive rank. In two extended stretches of games without James Wiseman, Green played more center than he has at any point in his career and as has typically been the case, the Warriors were at their best with Draymond at the center.
In the 19 games the Warriors played without James Wiseman to close out the season, Green averaged nearly a triple double in this final stretch of games on 55/31/85 splits and had iconic defensive performances against MVP candidates Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. At various times in the season he looked excellent and played like the Draymond Green of old, switching onto guards, thwarting post ups by bigger and more athletic bigs, and spraying assists all over the court.
But the Warriors needed more from Draymond Green this season and his inability to threaten opposing defenses hurt the Warriors. Although Draymond averaged a career high in assists, his turnovers skyrocketed this season and opposing defenses became more aggressive in overplaying Green’s passes. Green’s turnovers in the play-in defeat against the Memphis Grizzlies were painful, but they weren’t even the most damaging thing Draymond Green did this season.
By my count, Draymond Green played a central role in blowing at least four winnable games in the regular season. Let’s count them:
Against the Charlotte Hornets, the Warriors had a two point lead with less than 15 seconds left in the game when Green and Gordon Hayward got tangled up for a loose ball after a jump ball. The refs called another jump ball and Green, irate the officials didn’t acknowledge the Warriors’ attempt to call a timeout, lost his temper and got called for a technical foul. Terry Rozier then made both technical foul shots and then hit game-winning three at the buzzer.
Against the San Antonio Spurs, the Warriors were down three points with 8.7 seconds left when Damion Lee inbounded the ball to Draymond Green, who immediately chucked up a bricked three from the logo because... he thought the Spurs were going to foul him and he might get three free throws?
Against the Boston Celtics, the Warriors were down two points with less than a minute left when Draymond Green faked a dribble handoff off a Steph Curry inbounds pass, drove to the hoop, and missed a lightly contested layup.
Against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Warriors were down two points with 5.5 seconds left when Draymond pump faked at the three point line — the defender bit! — and drove into Damian Lillard and got called for a charge. This time Draymond did make what should have been the game-tying layup, but upon review, the referees upheld the charge call, despite Lillard clearly moving as Draymond began his move to the basket.
There’s one more Draymond blunder that comes to mind, but I want to stress here that what happened was absolute bullshit; against the New York Knicks, Draymond Green was ejected by an inexperienced official because... Green was yelling at James Wiseman about securing proper post position, and the young (and small and white) official got scared thinking that big, scary Draymond was yelling at him and gave Green the hook.
This was without a doubt one of the worst calls I remember a ref making in my lifetime. But I also believe that only Draymond Green could have been wrongly ejected in that situation because of the reputation in the last half decade for yelling at refs. For reasons that still make no sense, Steve Kerr gave meaningful minutes to Nico Mannion in Green’s absence because he claimed to want another playmaker next to Steph Curry? Predictably, the Warriors lost that game in Mannion’s minutes.
The Warriors finished the regular season only three games behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the 6th seed. If Green doesn’t make the above boners, the Warriors might have avoided the play-in game altogether and had a first round matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who were without Jamaal Murray. Pain.
Those fuck ups were obvious, but there’s another one I want to talk about — Draymond Green testing positive for COVID-19 in preseason.
Here’s the thing, James Wiseman also tested positive for COVID-19, but I really have no clue what he was doing before training camp or how he contracted the virus. Draymond, on the other hand, very publicly traveled to Cabo San Lucas in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Warriors’ training camp. Draymond could have laid low and actively avoided travel and possible infection before training camp, but he didn’t.
Draymond missed the first four games of the season recovering from COVID-19 symptoms and it took him a while to get his wind back. Draymond played his first game of the season January 1, 2021 and didn’t score a single point against the Portland Trail Blazers. In January, Draymond averaged 4.8 points a game, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists a game on 35/21/67 splits and Green looked terrible physically. On February 9th, Draymond admitted he was still not fully in shape and even late in February, Draymond copped to still feeling the lingering effects of COVID-19.
In training camp, Green said he’d actually worked quite hard in the offseason on his body prior to his COVID-19 diagnosis:
"I feel great physically. [...] A lot of work went into this offseason -- on the court and in the weight room. A lot of hip mobility work, core strengthening, conditioning.
[...]
Just a bunch of different stuff to get my body where it needs to be -- getting all the limbs moving the right way. Should be good for me.
[...]
I'm happy with the nine months [between games...] My body feels as good as it's felt in a long time. I was able to get a lot of work in on my game, as opposed to a month-and-a-half leading up to the season. So I appreciated the nine months.”
How does the Warriors’ record look if Draymond Green hadn’t contracted COVID-19 and set himself back physically? If Draymond had been healthy in training camp, maybe he could have spent the first months of the season establishing himself as an occasional threat to score, rather than having to get his wind back. We’re now several years into Draymond Green being a non-scorer, so I don’t expect that would have changed this season even without COVID-19, but the Warriors needed just the slightest bit of scoring punch from Green and he mostly failed to deliver it.
On the occasions Draymond Green scored even a little bit, the Warriors were a very good team. Draymond scored more than 8 points in 21 different games this season and the Warriors had a 17-4 record in those games. In the games that Draymond played but did not score more than 8 points, the Warriors were 18-24. Correlation is not causation, so it’s not like the Warriors would have been a 3 seed if Draymond Green scored 8 points consistently, but this stat illustrates how much the Warriors needed just a little more offensive punch from Draymond and how infrequently they got it.
Draymond Green proved this season that he’s still an essential player for the Warriors. Draymond still has the ability to will lineups with mismatching players into defensive competence and his two-man game with Steph Curry is still magical. But because the Warriors need Draymond Green, they’re also vulnerable to his various flaws. Draymond Green cost the Warriors a handful of games this year with poor on-court decisions and his COVID-19 diagnosis probably cost the Warriors another handful of games.
I can point to pretty much anybody on this Warriors roster and say they cost the team five or six wins that were the difference between the play-in tournament and the sixth seed, but that statement feels most true when it’s applied to Draymond Green. As Warriors fans know all too well, Draymond giveth and Draymond taketh. It’s hard for me to get over the fact that Draymond’s most egregious fuck-ups this year were avoidable and though he had great moments this year, it’s hard for me to forgive his fuck-ups.
Draymond Green’s statistical profile (career bests bolded):
63 games played, 31.5 minutes a game, 7.0points a game, 7.1 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 3.0 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 3.1 fouls.
44.7% FG, 27.0% 3P, 79.5% FT, 53.0 TS% (-4.2% league average TS), 49.2% EFG (-4.6 league average EFG).
6.0 FGA, 2.0 3PA, 1.4 FTA.
BBREF: 110 ORTG, 106 DRTG, +4.9 +/- per 100 poss., 1.8 VORP, 1.12 WS/48, 13.1% USG.
NBA.com: 109.4 ORTG, 105.6 DRTG, +3.8 net rating, 10.8% USG.
Draymond was still a monster on defense this year by any metric — Cleaning the Glass’s efficiency differential really adores him compared to the other metrics — but his offensive impact no longer rates as positive. Still, it’s clear that the Warriors were a much better team when Draymond Green played. Cleaning the Glass actually ranks this season as Draymond’s second best by efficiency differential.
But there’s some numbers here that are frustrating and utterly bizarre. Draymond Green ranks in 63rd percentile in usage for a big, which is not what you might expect from somebody who shoots the ball only 6 times a game. But usage does not determine how often someone shoots or holds onto the ball, but rather how often they terminate possessions via shots, turnovers, or free throw attempts. So tack on three turnovers a game to 6 FGA and his relatively high percentile usage makes more sense.
Draymond is, unfortunately, in the 2nd percentile for turnovers among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass. Turnovers have always been something of an issue for Draymond, but it felt like the turnovers were more damaging this year than in years past. This turnover on a pass to a cutting Steph Curry is a good example of a typical Draymond turnover:
Seven years into Steve Kerr’s tenure as the Warriors’ head coach, other teams have a pretty good understanding of the Warriors’ pet actions on offense. Here, Donovan Mitchell does a great job of sticking with a cutting Steph Curry and away Draymond Green’s pass. That example is a typical, but less frustrating example than this turnover against the Boston Celtics.
Steph Curry gets doubled a screen from Kevon Looney and passes the ball to Green at the top of the key, who is completely undefended. Green doesn’t even look to shoot and immediately fires a lob into the paint, which is now occupied by two Celtics, over the head of Kevon Looney. The pass Draymond threw was risky, sure, but what’s more frustrating is that no defender on the Celtics respects Draymond enough to even shade towards him when he gets the ball.
Draymond has very few immediate options here; he can shoot a three in this possession, but that’s a risky proposition for a sub 30% shooter, or he can initiate a dribble hand off with Steph Curry. If Draymond drives, there’s two men in the paint, so he won’t get a clean look at the hoop, so the only other option available to him is to simply wait for other Warriors to get open and then restart the offense.
Make no mistake, Draymond Green’s limited options at the top of the key have everything to do with his bad three point shot. Steve Kerr has exacerbated this problem with every passing year, beginning in 2016 when he discouraged Green (who was shooting 39.1% from three at the time) from shooting threes. In the years since, Kevin Durant played three seasons with the Warriors and Green was asked to initiate rather than score and Kerr tolerated Draymond’s inability to shoot. Even in training camp of this season, Kerr told reporters he wasn’t worried about Draymond’s shot.
Not coincidentally, Draymond Green shot the second worst 3 point percentage of his career on a career low attempts per 36 minutes. I will note, however, that Draymond Green shot a career high percentage from the free throw line this season. That might be mildly encouraging! By the end of the season, I felt very confident whenever Draymond was at the line — it was almost as if his free throws became as consistently reliable as his infrequent and audacious crunch time threes.
Draymond Green’s performance in the play-in games:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 41:22 minutes, 2 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, 5 fouls, and 6 turnovers, 0/5 FG, 0/1 3P, 2/2 FT, 55 ORTG, 97 DRTG, 17.0 TS% (-40.2 league average TS and -36.0 regular season TS), 0 EFG% (-53.8 regular season EFG and -49.2 regular season EFG).
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 45:05 minutes, 11 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 fouls, and 6 turnovers, 5/11 FG, 1/1 3P, 0/0 FT, 88 ORTG, 104 DRTG, 50% TS (-7.2 league average TS and -3.0 regular season TS), and 50% EFG (-3.8 league average TS and +0.8 regular season EFG).
Draymond Green showed the full spectrum of Draymond Green in the play-in tournament. In the first half of the game against the Lakers, Draymond was arguably the best player on the floor, despite scoring only 2 points. The Lakers offense sputtered out in that first half because Draymond Green turned back the clock and became Draymond motherfucking Green on defense against Anthony Davis, who had only 5 points in 18 first half minutes. Pick and rolls with Anthony Davis actively harmed the Lakers because running it dragged Draymond Green into the action. This video highlights some of Green’s best defensive moments in that game.
At the risk of hyperbole, I think that first half might have been the best defensive performance of Draymond Green’s entire career. Consider the context — the Warriors’ 8 man rotation consisted of Jordan Poole, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Mychal Mulder as their lone bench players and still, the Warriors, led by Green, made Davis worthless in the first half.
But Frank Voegl made a brilliant adjustment in the second half — he simply stopped running plays for Anthony Davis and trusted that his star big man would stumble into his points through cuts, open jump shots, and other opportunistic buckets. Voegl’s bet paid off and Davis scored 20 points in the second half, 13 of which came in the deciding fourth quarter. I do not blame Green for Davis’ points — I’m simply making note of the Voegl’s smart strategy here.
If you look at the boxscore, you’ll see that Green turned the ball over 6 times in both play-in games. Draymond was far more aggressive on offense against the Grizzlies, and it came at something of a cost. Bricked drives, like this one against Xavier Tillman let several points on the board:
And of course, there’s this now infamous missed floater.
This won’t come as a surprise, but Draymond Green did not shoot floaters well this season, as you’ll see in his shot profile.
Draymond Green’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 64.2% on 162 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 37.5% on 64 attempts.
Mid-range: 28.6% on 28 attempts.
Left corner 3: 25% on 8 attempts.
Right corner 3: 50% on 8 attempts.
Above the break 3: 25.9% on 108 attempts.
Floaters: 31% on 29 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 58.1% on 177 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 35.9%.
Assisted by: Stephen Curry (61), Andrew Wiggins (20), Kevon Looney (9), Kent Bazemore (8), Kelly Oubre Jr., Jordan Poole, and Juan Toscano-Anderson (4), Eric Pschall and James Wiseman (3), and Nico Mannion (1).
FGM% assisted: 68.8%
FGM% unassisted: 31.2%
These numbers are bleak. There was really no such thing as a good shot for Draymond Green this season. I will say that Draymond’s numbers in the restricted area and on drives are far better than I’d have expected, but like JTA, Draymond is usually reluctant to take those types of shots unless they’re clean looks. Draymond’s numbers on drives back that up — on nearly 2/3 of his drives to the hoop, he does not take a shot and he’s nearly twice more likely to pass or turn the ball over than he is to shoot it.
In previous seasons Draymond Green shot the ball more frequently on drives. From 2014-15 through 2019-20, Draymond’s FGA% per total drives were: 38.7%, 43.9%, 42.9%, 40.7%, 48.9%, and 40.8%. No doubt sharing the court with James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre Jr. and Andrew Wiggins made driving difficult, but Draymond Green’s inability and unwillingness to shoot the ball made Draymond Green’s life more difficult.
Look at Draymond’s numbers on floaters. Gruesome. No defender is making any effort at stopping Draymond Green from shooting a floater, he takes floaters because his driving lanes are impeded and he’s sometimes left no choice but to throw something up. As you’d expect, his numbers on mid-range shots are bad (but not quite Bazemore level) and pull-up shots of any type were a disaster.
Here’s Draymond Green’s shot chart from Positive Residual:
The lineup stats!
Starting, as always, with Cleaning the Glass’s non-garbage time numbers.
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.6 net rating (116.9 ORTG) in 563 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -13.2 net rating (97.4 ORTG) in 538 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +5.8 net rating (112.2 ORTG) in 401 possessions.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +9.0 net rating (119.4 ORTG) in 324 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +3.0 net rating (115.5 ORTG) in 155 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -8.5 net rating (108.8 ORTG) in 102 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Green: +27.6 net rating (143.4 ORTG) in 99 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Green/Wiseman: +25.0 net rating (125 ORTG) in 96 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +13.2 net rating (132.6 ORTG) in 86 possessions.
Curry/Lee/Oubre/Wiggins/Green: -11.9 net rating (118.2 ORTG) in 77 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +23.1 net rating (124.6 ORTG) in 65 possessions.
Poole/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -19.2 net rating (115.6 ORTG) in 64 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Wiggins/Green: +9.5 net rating (128.6 ORTG) in 63 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Green/Looney: +19.2 net rating (114 ORTG) in 57 possessions.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/JTA/Green: +24.1 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 54 possessions.
You know the deal by now; most Draymond lineups are good, except for the ones with Wiseman, the JTA/Green frontcourt is stellar, and Draymond rarely plays without Steph Curry and for good reason.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Wiggins/Green: +4.6 net rating (114.4 ORTG) in 1352 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Green: +1.2 net rating (109.7 ORTG) in 899 minutes.
Wiggins/Oubre/Green: -3.8 net rating (106.5 ORTG) in 811 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Green: +9.3 net rating (117.1 ORTG) in 681 minutes.
Curry/Green/Looney: +15.2 net rating (119.7 ORTG) in 582 minutes.
Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.7 net rating (116.5 ORTG) in 567 minutes.
Bazemore/Wiggins/Green: +5.2 net rating (112.5 ORTG) in 511 minutes.
Curry/JTA/Green: +12.2 net rating (118.7 ORTG) in 467 minutes.
Curry/Green/Wiseman: -7.3 net rating (102.3 ORTG) in 423 minutes.
Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -13.7 net rating (100.5 ORTG) in 385 minutes.
Oubre/Green/Wiseman: -6.6 net rating (101.7 ORTG) in 364 minutes.
Wiggins/JTA/Green: +11.8 net rating (115.2 ORTG) in 339 minutes.
Bazemore/Green/Looney: +11.2 net rating (114.9 ORTG) in 320 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/Green: +7.2 net rating (118.4 ORTG) in 284 minutes.
Oubre/Green/Looney: +10.9 net rating (112.4 ORTG) in 245 minutes.
Again, mostly predictable results here, but I was very surprised to see Oubre/Green/Looney come up positive.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Green: +6.9 net rating (116.2 ORTG) in 1738 minutes.
Wiggins/Green: +2.4 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 1549 minutes.
Oubre/Green: +0.4 net rating (108.2 ORTG) in 1055 minutes.
Bazemore/Green: +9 net rating (114.9 ORTG) in 761 minutes.
JTA/Green: +10.9 net rating (116.7 ORTG) in 524 minutes.
Green/Wiseman: -8.4 net rating (103 ORTG) in 481 minutes.
Mulder/Green: +2.9 net rating (117.6 ORTG) in 343 minutes.
Poole/Green: +6.9 net rating (113.3 ORTG) in 333 minutes.
Lee/Green: +11 net rating (120.5 ORTG) in 301 minutes.
Paschall/Green: +14 net rating (117.7 ORTG) in 72 minutes.
Mannion/Green: +5.1 net rating (92.4 ORTG) in 34 minutes.
Draymond ends up having the most positive 2 man combos of any player on the team, besting the Net Rating God, Kent Bazemore. We’ve been looking at these numbers long enough to know that nothing happens in a vacuum, so you can assume by now that some of these combos are skewed by time with Steph Curry. Draymond is a brilliant (and frustrating player) but these numbers are not going to make me lead a campaign to put Draymond in bench lineups with Kelly Oubre and Mychal Mulder.
What’s next for Draymond Green?
Draymond Green has one of few salary slots that could conceivably be a part of a trade for a max contract player, but he’ll likely be a Warrior next year. The Philadelphia 76ers are really the only team I could see taking on Draymond Green in return for their max contract player, Ben Simmons, but they’d demand additional assets and I do not view Simmons as an upgrade on Green. There are other teams that would benefit from Green’s presence, most notably the Portland Trail Blazers, who have reportedly lusted after Green for years. But outside of an unlikely Simmons trade, pretty much any conceivable trade for Green would be part of a rebuild as it’s unlikely Green returns positive value in any trade.
So Draymond Green will likely be a Warrior next year and the Warriors will be a better team for it. You will not find another NBA player who can elevate a mediocre defensive cast like Draymond Green does. Sure, Rudy Gobert may block more shots and get the (increasingly meaningless) DPOY awards, but you’d be a fool to prefer Gobert to Green in the playoffs. Draymond Green is the best defensive player of his generation and one of the best playoff performers of the last decade, period.
Even with his broken jumpshot, his penchant for turnovers, and his temper, I can’t think of any viable upgrades to Draymond Green and I’d bet you that Steph Curry thinks the same. The connection that Steph Curry and Draymond Green have on the court is special — when they (finally) unleashed their two man game and other Warriors performed in their orbit, the Warriors went on a run and they won games at a blistering pace with a surrounding cast of G-League castoffs and low-IQ wings.
I’ve seen the memes about Draymond’s backpack and his deference to fellow Klutch client, Lebron James. I’ve seen memes about his single-triples, his temper, and his bricked floater against the Memphis Grizzlies. But you know what? Draymond Green has been in hundreds of crunch time possessions identical to that one and he’s almost never been asked to take closing shots. Watch this Steph Curry/Draymond Green pick and roll from Game 6 of the 2019 WSCF against the Houston Rockets and see how different it looks from Warriors’ crunch time possessions in 2021:
Steph Curry gets trapped above the three point line at the right, just like he did in the waning moments of that Grizzlies game. Steph Curry lobs the ball to Draymond Green, just like he did against the Grizzlies, and Draymond rumbles down the lane, but this time he has options because the Warriors have spacing. Draymond kicks the ball to Andre Igoudala in the left corner, who immediately kicks the ball to Klay Thompson at the left wing, who swishes in the dagger three.
Even when the Warriors had the greatest collection of shooting the NBA had ever seen, Steph Curry got trapped above the three point line in crunch time. That’s not going to change any time soon. Draymond Green will be asked to create in 4 on 3 situations in pick and rolls with Steph Curry until both of them retire and as he’s done countless of times, he’ll probably make the right decision. But let’s be real — creating offense crunch time is difficult and more often than not, players will miss go-ahead buckets.
Opposing teams are going to do everything in their power to prevent Steph Curry from getting the final shot of a game, so it’s going to be rare that the greatest shooter of all time gets that final shot. The great paradox of Steph Curry is that he’s such a great shooter that opposing teams willingly give up open shots to lesser shooters and take their odds rather than give Curry clean looks.
That paradox puts an inordinate amount of weight on role players to hit those in crunch time. Andre Iguodala did hit those shots and he won the Finals MVP in 2015. Harrison Barnes did not hit those in the 2016 Finals, and his name is recalled with disgust by most Warriors fans. A lot of role players fail to meet the weight of those moments — Alfonzo McKinnie, Quinn Cook and Anderson Varejao immediately come to mind.
Unless you have an isolation demigod like Kevin Durant, crunch time will always be nerve wracking and never more so than when Steph Curry is forced to give up the ball. What makes Curry great also makes the Warriors vulnerable in those waning moments of games, which is why it’s so important for the Warriors to build up a cushion going into those final minutes so they can play with a lead and not leave their fate in the hands of role players.
An easier way of saying it is that if you’re a Warriors fan, you want the Warriors to beat the shit out of their opponents. If you want the Warriors to beat the shit out of their opponents on a more consistent basis, then you want Draymond Green on your team. We know what Draymond Green is capable of and while his size and age put him at risk of injury and continued decline, he will be a key contributor to the Warriors next season.
Draymond Green absolutely needs to improve his three point shot (although I don’t think most Warriors fans actually think his three ball will ever come back) and be more aggressive on offense next year. Draymond Green absolutely needs to be in shape to start the season and not spend the first months of the season getting his legs under him. But even if he plays exactly the way he did this season, the Warriors will be a better team with Draymond Green on the floor.
What will be different next year is that the Warriors should field a better team, ideally, one with veteran players and credible floor spacers. Even in my most pessimistic visions of the Warriors’ offseason, there’s no reason that Draymond Green will be taking crunch time shots for next year’s Warriors — as long as he does the minimum of what he’s capable of, the Warriors will be a very good team with him on the court. If Green exceeds expectations, the Warriors could be one the best teams in the league and I hope Draymond Green is motivated by that possibility.
In the next few days I’ll do my front office send coaching staff review posts and then start doing draft content. See you then.