The Warriors' season in review: the guards - part 2
A deep numbers dive on Mychal Mulder, Jordan Poole, and Steph Curry
The guards — part 2.
Mychal Mulder: C+
Mychal Mulder played just 7 games for last year’s Warriors team before COVID-19 shutdown, but he made such an impression that the Warriors signed him to a multi-year, non-guaranteed contract on March 10, 2020.. Ever the defensive coach, Steve Kerr was particularly impressed that Mulder, who had just joined the Warriors on a 10-day contract, sought out the responsibility of guarding Devin Booker in his second game. But Mulder is first and foremost a shooter and in his brief stint last year, he was really the only high volume off-ball 3 point gunner the Warriors had and he played that role pretty well — in the smallest of sample sizes, ESPN’s RPM actually ranked him 18th in the entire NBA. Still, Mulder was on a non-guaranteed contract, so he had to fight for a spot in training camp and barely beat out Juan Toscano-Anderson for the Warriors’ final roster spot.
Mulder received inconsistent minutes throughout the year and was in and out of the rotation until injuries pressed him into consistent rotation minutes in the Warriors’ final 20 or so games of the season. It got so bad that Mychal Mulder played more than 20 in the 4th quarter of the play-in game against the Los Angeles Lakers — who would have seen that coming at the start of the season? On the whole, I think Mulder was mostly fine this year. Ideally, Mulder would be the 11th or 12th man on a good team. But shit happened, as shit is apt to do over the course of an NBA season, and Mulder got pressed into important minutes. A common complaint about Mulder that circulated among Warriors Twitter was his inability to hit shots in meaningful games. That’s a fair criticism. Mulder seemed to hit shots in bunches, but those scoring outbursts felt like they came exclusively against bad teams — see his 28 points vs. the New Orleans Pelicans — or in garbage time.
Still, Mulder had some nice moments this year. In a big late game comeback early in the season against the Los Angeles Clippers, the three man combo of Steph Curry, Mychal Mulder, and Damion Lee torched the Clippers. Of course, we’d rarely see that combo again, but there is a fairly substantial body of data to show that Mulder was occasionally useful when playing with Steph Curry. Mulder’s minutes in the 4th quarter of the play-in game against the Lakers were a shocking, if not totally reckless decision from Steve Kerr, but I actually thought Mulder did fine in those minutes. Earlier in the season, Mulder struggled on defense, particularly fighting over screens and getting burned for backdoor cuts. In that Lakers game, he held his own for the most part, and that’s something I wouldn’t have anticipated earlier in the season.
But Mychal Mulder isn’t in the NBA to fight over screens. He’s there to shoot the shit out of the ball and I wish he’d done a bit more of that. As we’ll see in his statistical profile, Mulder didn’t terminate as many possessions as you’d hope a three point gunner like him would, at least reactive to his positional peers. Mulder subsisted mostly on a diet of open threes, which is fine, but I’d have liked to see the Warriors make more use of his shooting abilities when he was on the court. If Mulder wasn’t out there to defend or make plays, I’d have rather seen Mulder shoot the ball a few more times if it meant taking the ball out of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre’s hands.
Another thing I liked about Mulder was his cutting ability and I wish we’d seen more of that. Every few games or so, Mulder would find a hole in the defense and explode to the hoop for a cutting dunk. Mulder doesn’t have the wiggle or handle to create his own looks off the dribble, but he’s a sneaky athlete. You can imagine that in an ecosystem with more floor spacing, those big dunks might be a little more frequent.
But really, there’s no guarantee Mychal Mulder comes back next to the Warriors next year. I’d hazard a guess to say that he doesn’t, but in the right circumstances I wouldn’t mind having him on the team. I had my frustrations with Mulder’s inability to live up to the moment, but at the end of the day, Mulder is an end-of-the-roster guy. There’s a reason for that. In an ideal world, anything Mulder provided would have been a cherry on top, but things got weird towards the end of the season and because the Warriors’ front office sat on their asses, Mychal Mulder played crunch time minutes in one of the most important games of the season. You can’t really fault Mulder for that.
Mychal Mulder’s statistical profile:
60 games played, 12.8 minutes a game, 5.6points a game, 1 rebound, 0.4 assists, 0.3 turnovers, 0.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 0.9 fouls.
44.9% FG, 39.7% 3P, 63.6% FT, 61.3 TS% (+4.1% league average TS), 60.9% EFG.
BBREF: 113 ORTG, 115 DRTG, +3.1 +/- per 100 poss., 0 VORP, 0.75 WS/48, 16.2% USG.
4.4 FGA, 3.6 3PA, 0.4 FTA.
NBA.com: 111.3 ORTG, 108.4 DRTG, +2.9 net rating, 15.7% USG.
-2.6 DIFF in non-garbage time (39th percentile), 8th percentile usage, 55th percentile PSA, 3rd percentile AST%, 2nd percentile AST:Usg, 100th percentile TOV% among combo position.
1.44 ORPM, -0.98 DRPM, 0.457 RPM (#119 rank of 534 players).
It’s interesting to me to see how Basketball Reference ranks Mulder in its BPM metric and its ORTG/DRTG calculations in contrast to RPM and EPM. It’s also curious that Mulder is such a good shotmaker by EFG% while his offensive impact is pretty eh. BBREF says his ORTG is 113, which is less than a point above league average. The NBA’s ORTG has him slightly below average. I’d bet that garbage time plays a big role in this — Cleaning the Glass has him playing only 56 games and 611 minutes this year, which means they filtered out 4 games and 155 minutes where he only played in garbage time. Mulder played nearly 30 minutes a game for last year’s Warriors and impact stats all adored him. Cleaning the Glass had his non-garbage time point differential at +29.4, this in spite of shooting 38.8% from the field and 30.8% from three. ESPN’s RPM, on the other hand, justified his 18th rank through +3.40 DRPM and a mere -0.13 ORPM. It probably means nothing, but it does make me mildly curious what Mulder would have looked like with a more consistent role and a bigger diet of shots.
Mychal Mulder’s performance in the play-in games:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 21:50 minutes, 5 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers, 2/5 FG, 1/4 3P, 0 FT, 67 ORTG, 109 DRTG, 50% TS (-7.2 league average TS and -11.3 regular season TS), 50% EFG.
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 8:42 minutes, 4 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, and 0 fouls, 2/4 FG, 0/2 3P, 0 FT, 100 ORTG, 123 DRTG, 50% TS (-7.2 league average TS and -11.3 regular season TS), 50% EFG.
I still can’t believe it as I type it out — Mychal Mulder played over 20 minutes against the Los Angeles Lakers. I think this was one of the more surprising decisions Steve Kerr has made in quite some time. In fact, I think that decision might mark something of a sea change for Kerr, who has almost always preferred competent defenders with little to no scoring ability to competent — or even above average — shooters who struggle on defense. In the most important game of the season, Steve Kerr prioritized floor spacing and took a gamble that Mychal Mulder wouldn’t hemorrhage points on defense. The Warriors lost this game, so I wouldn’t say Kerr won that gamble, but I don’t think he lost it either; Mulder held his own just fine on defense, save for a boxout where he was very obviously fouled by Anthony Davis, whose putback gave the Lakers the lead. At the very least, Mychal Mulder’s minutes weren’t the obvious reason for this loss. Mulder barely played in the next game against the Grizzlies and I was fine with that. Anything you get from Mychal Mulder in meaningful minutes is a cherry on top — I did not long for Mychal Mulder minutes at any point that night, which says a lot.
Restricted area: 75.0% on 44 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 20% on 5 attempts.
Mid-range: 0% on 2 attempts.
Left corner 3: 39.4% on 33 attempts.
Right corner 3: 37.5% on 40 attempts.
Above the break 3: 40.4% on 141 attempts.
Floaters: 0% on 1 attempt.
Layups and fingers rolls: 64.9% on 37 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 51%.
Assisted by: Draymond Green (26), Juan Toscano-Anderson (20), Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole (13), Nico Mannion (12), Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins (8), Kent Bazemore and Eric Paschall (5), Damion Lee (3), Brad Wanamaker (2), Jordan Bell (1).
Total FG’s assisted: 116
FGM% assisted: 97.5%
FGM% unassisted: 2.5%
Mychal Mulder was a very efficient shot maker who got assisted on all but three of his made field goals in the year. Three (3) unassisted made field goals. Think about that. I personally admire Mulder’s dedication to avoiding mid-range shots — Daryl Morey would be proud. Mulder’s shot profile is one of a player who knows his role and does not deviate from it. Remember also from Mulder’s statistical profile that he had a 100th percentile TOV%. If Mychal Mudler gets the ball, he’s going to shoot it or he’s going to pass it and it’s rare that he made dumb mistakes, save for maybe an occasional reckless three point attempt. In a tiny sample size, Mulder shot well on pull-up 3’s. I think it’s funny, and perhaps a sign of shoddy stat keeping, that none of his pull-up 3’s were assisted. But maybe that’s something he can build on to expand his offensive arsenal.
The lineup stats!
So because Mychal Mulder ended up playing rotation minutes towards the end of the season, I’m going to rely on Cleaning the Glass’ lineup numbers for 5 man combos here rather than NBA.com’s so we can see non-garbage time minutes — I’ll do this as well for Jordan Poole. The only difference with CTG’s lineup numbers and NBA.com’s is that CTG uses possessions played rather than minutes played.
Notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Green: +27.6 net rating (143.4 ORTG) in 99 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -15.4 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 92 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +13.2 net rating (132.6 ORTG) in 86 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +23.1 net rating (124.6 ORTG) in 65 possessions.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee/Wiggins/Paschall: -3.7 net rating (119.7 ORTG) in 61 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Mulder/JTA/Green: +24.3 net rating (126.7 ORTG) in 45 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/Oubre/Green: -42.1 net rating (79.5 ORTG) in 39 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Oubre/JTA/Green: +14.1 net rating (138.5 ORTG) in 39 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Lee/Bazemore/Green: +30.7 net rating (142.1 ORTG) in 38 possessions.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee/Oubre/Paschall: -50 net rating (100 ORTG) in 35 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -31.9 net rating (80.6 ORTG) in 31 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Lee/Wiggins/Green: -15.4 net rating (123.3 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Looney: +43.3 net rating (150 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Curry/Mulder/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA: +25.4 net rating (111.1 ORTG) in 27 possessions.
There’s only three lineups here when Mulder shares the court with Steph that perform poorly. One of them includes James Wiseman, and the other the unholy spacing trinity of Wiggins/Oubre/Green, and the other, Curry/Mulder/Lee/Wiggins/Green, was great on offense but apparently couldn’t defend anybody. We’re going to turn back to NBA.com’s numbers now for notable 3 man and 2 man combos, but remember the caveat that we no longer can sort for garbage time.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Mulder/Green: +7.2 net rating (118.4 ORTG) in 284 minutes.
Mulder/Wiggins/Green: -7.2 net rating (111.4 ORTG) in 173 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/JTA: +12.3 net rating (113.9 ORTG) in 170 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/Wiggins: -5.7 net rating (107.9 ORTG) in 165 minutes.
Poole/Mulder/JTA: +6.2 net rating (108.4 ORTG) in 152 minutes.
Mulder/JTA/Green: +13 net rating (120.8 ORTG) in 148 minutes.
Mulder/Wiggins/JTA: +2.6 net rating (102.2 ORTG) in 127 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/Bazemore: +21.9 net rating (124.2 ORTG) in 122 minutes.
Mulder/Wiggins/Looney: -11.1 net rating (109.5 ORTG) in 118 minutes.
Curry/Mulder/Looney: +6.8 net rating (112.2 ORTG) in 116 minutes.
Mulder/Bazemore/Green: +8.2 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 105 minutes.
Mulder/Bazemore/JTA: +17.4 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 100 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder/Lee: +7.5 net rating (114 ORTG) in 97 minutes.
I didn’t set an arbitrary cutoff here other than to stop when I saw a garbage time lineup or no longer relevant lineup, like the Wanamaker one at the bottom that managed to come up positive. Again, Mulder performed well in almost every combo here, save for Curry/Mulder/Wiggins and two combos with Wiggins that were very likely dragged down by being part of bench lineups.
Notable two man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Mulder: +6.6 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 387 minutes.
Mulder/Green: +2.9 net rating (117.6 ORTG) in 343 minutes.
Mulder/JTA: +7.5 net rating (109 ORTG) in 337 minutes.
Mulder/Wiggins: -8.8 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 313 minutes.
Poole/Mulder: +3.2 net rating (107.9 ORTG) in 273 minutes.
Mulder/Lee: +6.9 net rating (115.5 ORTG) in 211 minutes.
Mulder/Bazemore: +17.1 net rating (115.6 ORTG) in 205 minutes.
Mulder/Looney: -0.9 net rating (106.4 ORTG) in 198 minutes.
Mulder/Paschall: +13.6 net rating (120.3 ORTG) in 172 minutes.
Mulder/Oubre: -21.2 net rating (98.6 ORTG) in 151 minutes.
Wanamaker/Mulder: +8.2 net rating (111.8 ORTG) in 126 minutes.
Mannion/Mulder: +2.4 net rating (103.5 ORTG) in 125 minutes.
Mulder/Wiseman: +1.9 net rating (104.1 ORTG) in 120 minutes.
I excluded only Jordan Bell, Alen Smailagic, Marquesse Chriss, and Gary Payton II from these combos. Again, Mulder comes up positive in almost all of the combos with rotation players, save for Wiggins, Oubre, and (barely) Looney. The Wiggins and Oubre combos with Mulder are hideous. Those negative net ratings were likely accumulated as Steve Kerr tried and failed to find a workable bench lineup throughout the season. One combo that I find amusing and interesting is Mulder/Paschall. If my memory serves me correctly, there’s less than five positive 2 man combos with Paschall. Mulder managed to be one of the few Warriors to work well with Paschall, somehow.
What comes next for Mychal Mulder?
Mychal Mulder had his contract guaranteed for this year when he was still on the Warriors roster on Feb 27th. His contract will, however, be non-guaranteed for the entirety of next season, so Mulder will be fighting for his NBA life again. Mulder was a perfectly acceptable 12th man this season, but his non-guaranteed contract puts him at risk of getting cut for more reliable veteran players. Should Justinian Jessup — the Warriors draft-and-stash sharpshooter who lit up Australia’s NBL — impress in summer league, Mulder will have stiff competition for the end-of-the-bench shooter role. If Damion Lee hadn’t had complications from COVID-19, Mulder almost certainly wouldn’t have played in the play-in games. It figures that Lee, if he’s healthy next season, would get real minutes over Mulder.
Still, I wouldn’t mind seeing Mulder stick around on a two-way deal next year or as end-of-bench fodder if the Warriors beef up the front of the end of their roster. Mulder is nearly a 40% three point shooter on high ish volume — he’ll be in the NBA in some capacity next year. And after seeing Warriors’ cast offs like Kendrick Nunn, Georges Niang, Chris Boucher, and Alec Burks contribute to good NBA teams in the last two years, you can understand why I’m a little spooked by the possibility of Mulder joining that list.
Jordan Poole: A-
By most metrics and stats, Jordan Poole was one of, if not the worst player in the NBA in his rookie season. Although Steve Kerr said Poole had had a “hell of a training camp”, the rookie looked overwhelmed at the NBA level for the first two months of his career. Through the first 29 games of his rookie season, Poole shot 25.9% from the field. On a better team and one that wasn’t riddled by injuries, Poole would have had the chance to ease into NBA minutes, but instead he was thrown into the fire and got burnt to a crisp, so Jordan Poole went down to the G-League and came back a different player. In 28 games after his G-League stint, Poole shot 40.9% from the field and 31.6%. Pretty eh percentages, but look at his field goal percentage in the restricted area after the G-League stint: 59.5%. That’s quite an improvement from the 37.5% he shot in the restricted area before going to the G-League. Poole made another mini-jump in the final games of his shortened rookie season after the Warriors traded D’Angelo Russell and Jacob Evans. In that 12 game stretch, Poole averaged 14.2 points on 48/33/73 splits and got a chance to showcase his passing ability. I was so impressed by the flashes of skill and feel that I became a lonely partisan on Poole island and I actually thought he might make an impact for the 2020-2021 Warriors.
My hopes were validated in the months leading up to the regular season when Poole was the subject of several articles in which coaches and players raved about how much time he’d put in the gym. The signing of Brad Wanamaker, a guard (theoretically) well suited to playing an off-ball role, seemed to indicate Poole would have a real shot at backup point guard minutes for the Warriors. But during training camp, Steve Kerr hinted that Poole might not even be a part of the rotation even after a summer of hard work; “"He may not end up in the rotation, but he will absolutely have opportunities to play during the year, [...] he's gonna have to be ready for every one of them."
Even after Kerr’s comments, Poole played rotation minutes in the first five games of the season, but instead of handling the ball, he mostly worked off-ball while Brad Wanamaker did... things. Poole looked pretty bad and in spite of that, the Warriors’ front office picked up Poole’s third year option, after which his ass got planted on the bench. Poole made occasional garbage time appearances in the first months of the season and made bundles of shots. None of it meant much, but as Brad Wanamaker and the bench unit flailed around impotently, it felt like Poole minutes might be worth a shot because there was no way he could be worse than Wanamaker. In February, the Warriors announced that Jordan Poole and Nico Mannion would participate in the NBA’s G-League bubble in Orlando. The night before Poole was set to fly, he put up 16 efficient points in a blowout against the Detroit Pistons. Warriors veterans on the bench jokingly chanted “cancel the flight” and when Kerr was asked about that possibility, he tersely told a reporter that Poole, “is still going [to Orlando].”
A few days into the G-League Bubble, Anthony Slater of The Athletic hinted that Poole may get run as the backup point guard upon his return and that the Wanamaker experiment would soon approach its merciful end. On March 1st, the Warriors recalled Poole and Mannion from the G-League and Steve Kerr announced that he’d give both players a shot in the second unit, but there was a caveat attached — Poole would be playing off-ball while Mannion handled. In his first game back from the G-League, Poole put up 26 points on 10/16 shooting with 5/10 from three point line in a blowout loss against the Phoenix Suns (it’s worth noting that Steph Curry and Draymond Green sat out that game). In the month of March, Poole averaged 18.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on 49/39/90 splits. In a very short period of time, Poole made it clear he was the the only player other than Steph Curry on the roster who could create at a high level.
While Poole’s return from the G-League was a revelation and his play bodes well for the Warriors’ long term future, he didn’t have a perfect season. Poole’s month of April was nearly as inefficient as his scorching hot month of March was efficient; 10.3 points on 35/32/83 splits. And while Poole showed obvious promise as a creator in high-leverage situations, most of the bench units he led struggled to score at a league-average rate. Mercifully, Poole was untethered from the red-haired anchor that is Nico Mannion once Steve Kerr decided to chase wins. Now, Kerr has admitted it’s all but certain that Poole will be the Warriors’ sixth man of the future. What I found most encouraging about Poole’s performance this year is that he showed a real sense of the moment. Poole looked absolutely exhausted in the final 15 games or so of the season; he struggled to finish through contact and his missed jumpers were ugly, leggy misses. But, Poole saved his best for last and in the final six games of the season, the most important ones of the year, Poole averaged 20.3 points a game, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 58/45/96 splits.
Earlier in the season, Sam Esfandiari and Andy Liu of the Light Years podcast talked to Poole’s trainer on a premium podcast that was apparently never published and revealed that the Warriors’ coaching staff thought Poole was arrogant and full of himself. When Poole came back from the G-League bubble, The Athletic’s Marcus Thompson said in a Warriors Plus-Minus podcast that Kerr’s reluctance to play Poole at the point guard came from the young guard’s propensity for reckless plays and turnovers. And yet, through sheer force of will, Poole played himself into Steve Kerr’s good graces and took the backup point guard spot by force. In the season-ending loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, Poole played 22 minutes without rest to close out the game. He scored 12 points in the fourth quarter and overtime and after the game Kerr showered Poole with much deserved praise: "He’s earned this. So thrilled for him. I think he’s got a really bright future, and obviously will play a big role for us going forward.”
Jordan Poole’s statistical profile (career bests bolded):
51 games played, 19.4 minutes a game, 12 points a game, 1.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1 turnover, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.7 fouls.
43.2% FG, 35.1% 3P, 88.2% FT, 58.1 TS% (+0.9% league average TS), 53.5% EFG.
9.3, 5.4 3PA, 2.3 FTA.
BBREF: 111 ORTG, 114 DRTG, +-1.4 +/- per 100 poss., 0.4 VORP, 0.94 WS/48, 25% USG.
NBA.com: 107.6 ORTG, 106.9 DRTG, +0.7 net rating, 24.6% USG.
+-0.1 DIFF in non-garbage time (50th percentile), 60th percentile usage, 62nd percentile PSA, 36th percentile AST%, 19th percentile AST:Usg, 86th percentile TOV%.
+0.8 OBPM, -1.4 DBPM, -0.6 BPM (#207 rank of 540 players).
+3.21 ORPM, -1.59 DRPM, +1.62 RPM (#62 rank of 534 players). 8th offensive
Although some of my favorite Poole moments this year are passes, his role on this Warriors team was to score. Poole upped his shot attempts this year in less minutes and tacked on nearly 10 percentage points onto every conceivable shooting metric (FG%, 3P%, FT%, TS%, EFG%) relative to his rough rookie season. At one point in his March hot streak, Poole ranked in the top 20 players in the league by EPM. He obviously cooled off quite a bit, to have superficially bleh shooting splits, but this doesn’t concern me all that much — Poole’s shooting splits as a sophomore are on par with, if not better than, the career averages of noted sixth men and gunners like Lou Williams, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jordan Clarkson, and Jamal Crawford. Turns out it’s pretty hard to shoot above league average from three when you run a second unit and create your own shots! Those that do shoot it above league average on high volume? Well, they usually become starters and border-line All-Stars.
Jordan Poole’s performance in the play-in games:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 26:25 minutes, 10 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, and 1 turnover, 4/9 FG, 2/5 3P, 0 FT, 67 ORTG, 109 DRTG, 50% TS (-7.2 league average TS and -11.3 regular season TS), 50% EFG.
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 37:54 minutes, +9, 19 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, 1 turnovers, and 4 fouls, 6/11 FG, 3/5 3P, 4/4 FT, 111 ORTG, 115 DRTG, 56.6% TS (-0.6 league average TS and -1.5 regular season TS), 56.6% EFG.
Jordan Poole didn’t play until the 2nd quarter of the play-in game of the Lakers, which came as something of a surprise to me, especially because Mychal Mulder got the first quarter minutes that Poole normally would. After a shaky and passive start, Poole settled in and made impressive drives to the hoop and hit clutch shots in the fourth quarter. In the Memphis game, Poole was very obviously the Warriors’s second best player. Steve Kerr played him for 22 minutes without rest and Poole hit big shot after big shot in the final minutes of the game. He also made two of the most consequential plays of the game — an incredible last ditch lob to Andrew Wiggins to tie the game with 36 seconds left in the 4th quarter and an unforced turnover in overtime with 27 seconds left. Still, Poole even being out there in the 4th quarter was an accomplishment in and of itself and I think most anyone watching would have agreed that Poole was one of the Warriors’ most important players in the play-in games.
Jordan Poole’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 70% on 90 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 44.6% on 65 attempts.
Mid-range: 38.6% on 44 attempts.
Left corner 3: 64.7% on 17 attempts.
Right corner 3: 54.1% on 14 attempts.
Above the break 3: 31.3% on 243 attempts.
Floaters: 53.1% on 47 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 63% on 111 attempts.
Drives FG: 52.5% on 120 attempts
FGA% per total drives: 45.1%
Assisted by: Juan Toscano-Anderson (27), Draymond Green (18), Kevon Looney and Nico Mannion (17), Stephen Curry (14), Kent Bazemore (11), Brad Wanamaker and Andrew Wiggins (9), Kelly Oubre Jr. and Eric Paschall (8), Mychal Mulder and Damion Lee (4), James Wiseman (3), Alen Smailagic (2), Gary Payton II and Marquese Chriss (1).
FGM% assisted: 68.3%
FGM% unassisted: 31.7%
There’s a few things that stick out to me with Poole’s shot profile. The most obvious one is 70% fucking percent in the restricted area. That’s better than Steph Curry’s career high. It’s LeBron James and lob toy/rim runner territory, albeit on low ish volume. I mentioned Spencer Dinwiddie, Lou Williams, and Jordan Clarskon as comparisons for Poole, so let’s see how their career bests in the restricted area compare to Poole. Dinwiddie’s career high is 64.1% on 270 attemptsClarkson’s career best is 66.5% on 203 attempts, and Wiliams 62.5%. But while 68.3% of Poole’s makes in the restricted area were assisted, Dinwwidie, Clarkson, and Williams’ makes in the restricted area were assisted at a rate of 17.2%, 28.1%, and 33.3% respectively. I’d hazard a guess that the high assist rate for Poole’s looks in the restricted area is a quirk of Kerr’s system.
On the whole, I was pretty surprised by how many of Poole’s points were assisted this year. If you’d asked me about this before I’d looked at the numbers, I’d have guessed that Poole did a lot of self-creation, but memory is a fickle and manipulative thing and that’s a big reason I love looking at these numbers and seeing if my hunches and anecdotal observations are actually playing out in objective reality. I still think it was dumb to play Nico Mannion at the point guard when it was clear that Poole was a superior passer and playmaker, but these numbers are actually kind to Steve Kerr in that they validate his desire for additional playmaking next to Poole.
In 2013, Tom Haberstoh wrote, “a team's frequency of corner 3s is more closely linked to successful offenses than the frequency of shots in the restricted area.” Take a look at how few corner threes Poole and how many above the break threes he took. Poole, having spent a lot of time as the only real playmaker in the second unit, didn’t get a lot of great looks created for him, particularly ones in the corner. You’d imagine that he would benefit from having another capable playmaker on the court with him in the second unit next year and that his efficiency could take a leap into the realm of 60% TS, which would make him one of the most efficient bench scorers in the NBA.
The lineup stats!
Again, I’m using Cleaning the Glass’s non-garbage time lineup stats (filtering for 25 or more possessions) for 5 man combos because I really doubt Jordan Poole will be playing much garbage time in the future — he’s a legitimate NBA rotation player now.
Five most used 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -15.4 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 92 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +8.8 net rating (97.6 ORTG) in 82 possessions.
Poole/Wiggins/Oubre/Green/Wiseman: -19.2 net rating (115.6 ORTG) in 64 possessions.
Mannion/Poole/Lee/Oubre/Looney: +5 net rating (103.3 ORTG) in 60 possessions.
Poole/Wiggins/Oubre/JTA/Wiseman: -41.2 net rating (101.9 ORTG) in 52 possessions.
Note the absence of Steph Curry in these lineups. This sucks, but this also makes some sense as Poole didn’t really start getting run with the closing lineup till the final weeks of the season. It also seems that lineups with James Wiseman and Poole both had DRTG’s in excess of 130 — seems bad! What I think is most interesting about these 5 man combos is that the only two to have positive net ratings still didn’t even get near league average offensive production. Is this surprising? Eh. Not really. Those lineups are both pretty putrid offensively and Steve Kerr’s offensive system without Steph Curry has practically never been able to produce league average offense or better, even in the KD era.
Best 5 man combos:
Curry/Poole/Mulder/JTA/Green: +24.3 net rating (126.7 ORTG) in 45 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Lee/JTA/Green: +31.3 net rating (143.2 ORTG) in 44 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +46.3 net rating (141.9 ORTG) in 43 possessions.
Poole/Mulder/Bazemore/JTA/Looney: +43.3 net rating (150 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Oubre/Wiggins/Looney: +57.3 net rating (124 ORTG) in 25 possessions.
Poole/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +31.3 net rating (128 ORTG) in 25 possessions.
Some of these net ratings seemed good to the point of absurdity so I cross referenced them with NBA.com’s lineup numbers and even though their numbers aren’t the same — the first and second lineups above were merely +21 net rating and +26.1 net rating respectively — they’re still really fucking good. Turns out that Curry + shooters is a good thing! Who knew? We’re dealing in fairly small sample sizes so it’s hard for me to suss out why the three with Poole running the show listed here are so much better than, say, Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney.
Worst 5 man combos:
Poole/Mulder/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: -15.4 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 92 possessions.
Poole/Wiggins/Oubre/Green/Wiseman: -19.2 net rating (115.6 ORTG) in 64 possessions.
Poole/Wiggins/Oubre/JTA/Wiseman: -41.2 net rating (101.9 ORTG) in 52 possessions.
Curry/Poole/Bazemore/JTA/Green: -27.8 net rating (116.7 ORTG) in 36 possessions.
Wanamaker/Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Paschall: -46.7 net rating (84.4 ORTG) in 32 possessions.
That’s the good stuff — Brad Wanamaker running the show, dangerously low IQ combos of Oubre/Wiggins/Wiseman. Hell yeah baby! Need I say more? We’re going to go back to NBA.com’s lineup stats now for the 3 and 2 man combos.
Notable 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Poole/Wiggins/Looney: +7.2 net rating (104.8 ORTG) in 225 minutes,
Poole/Wiggins/JTA: +4.6 net rating (108.8 ORTG) in 223 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Green: +0.9 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 216 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Oubre: -14.2 net rating (100 ORTG) in 168 minutes.
Poole/JTA/Looney: +11.7 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 166 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Green: +19.5 net rating (121.4 ORTG) in 165 minutes.
Poole/Mulder/JTA: +6.2 net rating (108.4 ORTG) in 152 minutes.
Poole/Oubre/Green: -1.5 net rating (100.6 ORTG) in 151 minutes.
Poole/Bazemore/Looney: +11.1 net rating (106.9 ORTG) in 149 minutes.
Poole/Oubre/Looney: -2.3 net rating (100.3 ORTG) in 146 minutes.
There’s a lot of combos here that likely played with Steph Curry and Draymond Green. It’s not very surprising, but the Oubre combos, which were probably bench ish units, were putrid on offense.
Notable 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Poole/Wiggins: +0.4 net rating (107.4 ORTG) in 497 minutes.
Poole/JTA: +4.4 net rating (111.1 ORTG) in 441 minutes.
Poole/Oubre: -10.4 net rating (99.4 ORTG) in 380 minutes.
Poole/Looney: +4.8 net rating (106.6 ORTG) in 377 minutes.
Poole/Green: +6.3 net rating (113.3 ORTG) in 333 minutes.
Poole/Lee: +4.9 net rating (107.9 ORTG) in 305 minutes.
Poole/Mulder: +3.2 net rating (107.9 ORTG) in 273 minutes.
Poole/Bazemore: +5.3 net rating (104.1 ORTG) in 262 minutes.
Poole/Mannion: -3.5 net rating (103.8 ORTG) in 245 minutes.
Curry/Poole: +17.9 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 221 minutes.
Poole/Wiseman: -1.2 net rating (108.4 ORTG) in 206 minutes.
Poole/Paschall: -16.4 net rating (95.5 ORTG) in 164 minutes.
Wanamaker/Poole: -12.9 net rating (95.1 ORTG) in 134 minutes.
Poole comes up positive with the Warriors who constituted the last rotation players standing after James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre’s late season injuries. The Curry/Poole combo is particularly intriguing; it had the highest net rating of any combo to receive significant minutes this year. I was initially impressed that Poole/Wiseman did better than Curry/Wiseman (-8.1 net rating and 101.6 ORTG), before remembering how much time the two of them spent together in garbage time and how many games were wasted trotting out the terrible starting lineup of Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman.
What’s next for Jordan Poole?
Improvement. Draymond Green has said that, “he doesn’t know many people who work as hard as Jordan.” Poole’s work ethic was praised repeatedly during the offseason. Poole has already made two significant leaps midseason after call-ups from the G-League. It figures that, health permitting, another leap will come after an offseason of skill work and strength and weight training. I am, of course, gutted that Steph Curry didn’t get to lay waste to opposing defenses in the playoffs this year, but I’m (nearly) just as bummed that Jordan Poole didn’t get to test himself in playoff games against well scouted teams and defenses prepared to snuff out all of the Warriors’ pet actions. But Poole did get a taste of playoff intensity in the play-in tournament and he was the Warriors’ second best player in play-in against the Grizzlies. If Poole is the maniacal worker that he’s made out to be in the press, he’ll remember what he did and didn’t do in those play-in games and build on the things he learned in the most important games of his young NBA career.
If Poole makes a leap of a similar magnitude to the one he made after his sophomore year G-League stint, he could be in consideration for the Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year awards. As I mentioned before, Poole’s this past season were in line with some of the most lauded bench guards in the league. The Warriors should have an improved roster next year — Bob Myers has already talked about adding veterans to the Warriors’ roster and picking up another playmaking guard. Jordan Poole was already a great compliment to Steph Curry. Can you imagine how he might look in bench lineups with literally just another competent NBA level shot creator or ball handler? Poole’s emergence and expected improvements could give the Warriors a real opportunity at having their positively impactful bench unit in the Steve Kerr era.
But I suspect that won’t be enough for Poole. With the flashes Poole showed this year, an “arrogant” player like himself should be aiming to work himself into a perennial All-Star. It almost certainly won’t happen in his third year — it may not even happen when Steph Curry is still in the NBA — but Poole possesses the creative flair that is a prerequisite for stardom in NBA guards. I can’t count the amount of times that Jordan Poole did something that blew my mind this season; a spin move to get himself out of a trap in the corner, a mid-air bullet pass to a shooter from deep under the bucket, a one-handed pass fake to the corner that turned into a push dribble into the paint, a hesitation and crossover to dust a defender, and so on and so forth.
I have a favorite Poole play from this season I want to highlight. With 39 seconds left in the 4th quarter and the Warriors down two points to the Grizzlies in the play-in game, Jordan Poole came rocketing up to the top of the key for a potential go-ahead shot. Ja Morant closes out hard on Poole, who hesitates and fakes his shot before passing it to Draymond Green, who is being guarded above the free throw line by Xavier Tillman. There are now 6 seconds left on the shot clock. Rather than panic or mope and stay still, Poole immediately cuts to the hoop and receives a give-and-go pass from Green. Poole takes one dribble into the lane as if to go up for a floater or layup, only to have Desmond Bane peel off of Andrew Wiggins on the baseline to contest a Poole shot. Poole jumps and hangs as if he’s going to shoot on the way down, but right before his feet hit the ground, he lobs a right handed pass to Andrew Wiggins, who converts a game-tying bank shot.
Watch that play a few times. In the most important possession of his NBA career, Poole failed to get off the first shot he wanted, but instead of panicking, he took a page out of Steph Curry’s book and got his ass into motion to try and create another offensive opportunity for himself. Poole’s drive to the hoop was very well defended and rather than fire up a wild shot, he made a brilliant read to hit Andrew Wiggins for an easy bucket to tie the game with 3 seconds left on the shot clock.
This play encapsulates all the things that intrigue me so much about Jordan Poole’s game. It combines his prenatural feel for the game with a sophisticated understanding of the options and looks Steve Kerr’s offense provides to those who buy into the read-and-react plays and perpetual movement. It’s the type of play that hints at a very bright future for Jordan Poole as a decision maker for the Warriors and it’s the type of play I expect and hope to see him make for years to come.
Steph Curry: A
If the Warriors had made the playoffs, I’d probably have given Steph Curry an A+. If the Warriors had made the playoffs, this would mean that Curry had solved the vexing problems of how to score against double teams at the halfcourt line and how to get Draymond Green to score in crunch time — quite the tall task. I will never blame Steph Curry for the Warriors missing the playoffs — he averaged 37 points a game on godlike efficiency to close out the season after sitting several games with a hairline fracture in his tailbone, for god’s sake! — but Steph had mortal moments in the play-in games and his passivity in the beginning of the season probably cost the Warriors a few games. Therein lies the paradox of Steph — he is such a good soldier that he’ll follow his coach’s game plan even if said game plan doesn’t necessarily make sense. How many times early in the season did Warriors fans rage tweet about Steph not hunting shots or letting himself get frozen out of consecutive offensive possessions? How many more games would the Warriors have won if Steph had gone rogue more often in the first 20 or so games of the season and taken the ball out of the hands of lesser players?
Steph’s late season MVP surge proved beyond any reasonable doubt that he is still Steph fucking Curry, the Sky Fucker, the greatest shooter to ever live, and arguably the best offensive player of all time. But what was most frustrating about this season was that it took the injury of James Wiseman for the Warriors offense to submit itself completely to the needs of Steph Curry. Here I will not blame Steph, but simply point out that the Sky Fucker could have been fucking the sky right right out of the gate and the various disappointing Warriors — James Wiseman, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Brad Wanamaker — probably would have been better off for it.
Still, I don’t want to let my slight criticisms of Steph Curry cloud what was truly one of his most impressive seasons, one that allows you to squint and see how the Warriors can be contenders next year. When Steph Curry fractured his tailbone on March 17, the Warriors had a 21-20 record. After a brief return nearly two weeks later against the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat, Steph sat from the sidelines as the Warriors lost by 53 points to a Toronto Raptors team that didn’t even make it to the play-in game. This was the absolute low point of the season.
Steph Curry came back two nights later and the Warriors tricked off a winnable game against the Atlanta Hawks, making their record 23-27. The Warriors proceeded to go 16-6 to close out the season and Steph Curry vaulted himself into the MVP conversation as the Warriors’ healthy players dropped like flies and Steve Kerr’s rotation shrunk both figuratively and literally. Along the way, Steph Curry submitted a 53 point game in a win against the Denver Nuggets, 49 points in a win against the Philadelphia 76ers, and 46 points in the final game of the regular season to clinch the Warriors the 8th seed in the NBA’s play-in tournament. And let’s not forget Steph having 5 games in this stretch where he made 10 or more threes — for reference, Klay Thompson has only 5 of those games in his career and no other player has done that more than three times.
Simply put, Steph Curry had an MVP caliber season for a team and organization incapable of picking up the slack to give him the MVP trophy or the playoff run he deserved. Let’s go into the numbers now.
Steph Curry statistical profile (career best bolded, league leader italicized):
63 games played, 34.2 minutes a game, 32 points a game, 5.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 3.4 turnovers, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 1.9 fouls.
48.2% FG, 42.1% 3P, 91.6% FT, 65.5 TS% (+8.3% league average TS), 60.5% EFG.
21.7 FGA, 12.7 3PA, 6.3 FTA.
BBREF: 119 ORTG, 111 DRTG, +8.6 +/- per 100 poss., 5.5 VORP, 2.01 WS/48, 34.8% USG.
NBA.com: 114.2 ORTG, 109.6 DRTG, +4.6 net rating, 33.1% USG.
+13.4 DIFF in non-garbage time (98th percentile), 86th percentile usage, 100th percentile PSA, 41st percentile AST%, 5th percentile AST:Usg, 66th percentile TOV%.
8.1 OBPM, 0.0 DBPM, 8.1 BPM (#3 ranked among qualifying players).
7.08 ORPM, 0.10 DRPM, 7.18 RPM (#1 ranked).
7.4 OFF, -0.6 DEF, +6.9 EPM (#3 ranked.)
By pretty much every significant statistical metric, Steph Curry ranked as one of the players in the league. You’ve seen this before — Steph ranks top tier offensively, grades out as fairly neutral on defense, and combines a chucker’s volume shooting with incredible efficiency. What made this season very obviously different was the quality of Steph Curry’s supporting cast. A fair amount of NBA commentators and fans questioned Steph’s ability to score efficiently without Klay Thompson or Kevin Durant — he answered that question, not that it needed to be answered, definitively.
Steph Curry’s performance in the play-in tournament:
May 19, 2021 vs. Lakers: 40:37 minutes, +4, 37 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, and 6 turnovers, 12/23 FG, 6/9 3P, 7/8 FT, 114 ORTG, 110 DRTG, 69.8% TS (+12.6 league average TS and +3.9 regular season TS), 65.2% EFG.
May 21, 2021 vs. Grizzlies: 47:23 minutes, +4, 39 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 0 blocks, 7 turnovers, and 5 fouls, 13/28 FG, 6/15 3P, 7/7 FT, 107 ORTG, 112 DRTG, 62.7% TS (+5.5 league average TS and -2.8 regular season TS), 57.1% EFG.
Steph Curry shook off his demons at Staples Center and had an outrageously efficient night against a Lakers’ defense that hounded his every move. But as was also the case in his less efficient Memphis game, Steph’s turnovers were a problem. In the waning moments of both games, the Lakers and Grizzlies got the ball out of Steph’s hands, although I don’t think there’s much that could have been done about that. If there’s any real criticism to be had of his performances in the play-in games, it’s the turnovers — without Steph, neither of those games are even close.
Restricted area: 64.6% on 268 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 51.9% on 158 attempts.
Mid-range: 47.9% on 140 attempts.
Left corner 3: 25% on 32 attempts.
Right corner 3: 48.4% on 31 attempts.
Above the break 3: 43.2% on 725 attempts.
Floaters: 60.9% on 169 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 64.7% on 426 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 45.3%
Assisted by: Draymond Green (194), Andrew Wiggins (33), Kevon Looney (23), Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kent Bazemore (14), Damion Lee (10), James Wiseman (8), Mychal Mulder (7), Jordan Poole (3), Eric Paschall and Brad Wanamaker (2).
Total FG’s assisted: 310
FGM% assisted: 47.1%
FGM% unassisted: 52.9%
Beyond Steph’s insane efficiency at pretty much... everything, I’m also struck by how much of his assisted looks came from Draymond Green and how few came from literally anybody else. I also want to take a moment to marvel at Steph’s efficiency in the restricted area. Back in April, BBall Index posted a metric showing that Steph Curry was playing with 5th percentile spacing in non-garbage time minutes.
As I’m sure you all know, it’s very hard to score in the paint when the floor isn’t spread because defenses can sag off of non-shooters and clog the paint. And yet, Steph Curry managed to shoot the third highest percentage of his career in the restricted area playing in the most restrictive and spacing bereft environment of his career. Even more impressive is that Steph took matters into his own hands getting to the hoop more than he has since his MVP seasons. In the seasons he played with Kevin Durant, Steph Curry’s percentage of unassisted field goal attempts in the restricted area were 56.5%, 52.9%, and 53.4%. This year, that number climbed back up to 59%.
I was initially struck also by the low number of corner 3 attempts, but it turns out he hasn’t shot as many corner 3’s as you’d think in the Steve Kerr era. It’s funny, I have such vivid memories of the famed Steph relocation three, particularly from the Warriors 2018 WCF series against the Houston Rockets. I can picture it clearly — Steph Curry gives up the ball and runs through a maze of defenders and a thicket of arms only to emerge in the corner while Kevon Looney or Jordan Bell screen a panicked defender who has only just now realized Steph Curry is about to shoot a corner 3. But it turns out that our memories are fickle things — the most amount of corner 3’s Steph ever shot under Kerr was in 2018-19 when he got 133 corner looks to 666 3’s above the break.
The lineup stats!
Five most played 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.3 net rating (116 ORTG) in 268 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -12.8 net rating (96.9 ORTG) in 247 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9 net rating (114.1 ORTG) in 186 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +9.9 net rating (118.3 ORTG) in 149 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +1.7 net rating (107.2 ORTG) in 74 minutes.
Five best 5 man combos to play >20 minutes:
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Green/Wiseman: +27.8 net rating (120 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Green: +26.1 net rating (119.6 ORTG) in 21 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/JTA/Green: +23.2 net rating (110.7 ORTG) in 25 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Mulder/JTA/Green: +21 net rating (118.8 ORTG) in 21 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Oubre/Green/Looney: +20.4 net rating (112.1 ORTG) in 27 minutes.
Five worst 5 man combos to play >20 minutes:
Curry/Lee/Wiggins/Oubre/Green: -29.7 net rating (98.9 ORTG) in 36 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Paschall/Wiseman: -26 net rating (94.3 ORTG) in 24 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -12.8 net rating (96.9 ORTG) in 247 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins/JTA/Wiseman: -6.7 net rating (82 ORTG) in 38 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Wiseman: -6.2 net rating (105.7 ORTG) in 47 minutes.
Note the repeated presence of Juan Toscano-Anderson in the most played and best 5 man combos that Steph Curry played in. Most of those lineups involving JTA only got run towards the end of the season when Steve Kerr began chasing wins and playing his best players. There’s nothing really all that surprising in these lineups — JTA+Green is good, Jordan Poole with defenders is good, and combinations of James Wiseman, Kelly Oubre, and Eric Paschall had the impressive ability of completely neutering Steph’s offensive impact.
Five most played 3 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Wiggins/Green: +4.6 net rating (114.4 ORTG) in 1352 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Green: +1.2 net rating (109.7 ORTG) in 899 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiggins: -2.6 net rating (107.2 ORTG) in 833 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Green: +9.3 net rating (117.1 ORTG) in 681 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Looney: +10.2 net rating (118.8 ORTG) in 617 minutes.
Five best 3 man combos to play >50 minutes:
Curry/Poole/Looney: +34.6 net rating (127.4 ORTG) in 64 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins: +29.5 net rating (131 ORTG) in 87 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Looney: +25.2 net rating (123.5 ORTG) in 101 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore/Mulder: +21.9 net rating (124.2 ORTG) in 122 minutes.
Curry/Wanamaker/Green: +20.7 net rating (126.4 ORTG) in 56 minutes.
Five worst 3 man combos to play >50 minutes:
Curry/Oubre/Paschall: -15.7 net rating (100.4 ORTG) in 119 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Wiseman: -11.6 net rating (98.5 ORTG) in 416 minutes.
Curry/Paschall/Looney: -9.4 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 68 minutes.
Curry/Oubre/Wiseman: -8.3 net rating (99 ORTG) in 413 minutes.
Curry/Green/Wiseman: -7.3 net rating (102.3 ORTG) in 423 minutes.
It’s remarkable to see how well Jordan Poole combos performed here. It’s also funny and annoying to see the Curry/Wanamaker/Green combo come up positive. Brad Wanamaker could have been an effective off-ball player, who would have thought?
Five most played 2 man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Green: +6.9 net rating (116.2 ORTG) in 1738 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins: +3.5 net rating (113.3 ORTG) in 1569 minutes.
Curry/Oubre: -1.4 net rating (107.3 ORTG) in 1175 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore: +7.3 net rating (115 ORTG) in 845 minutes.
Curry/Looney: +10.7 net rating (117.1 ORTG) in 798 minutes.
Five best 2 man combos to play >100 minutes:
Curry/Poole: +17.9 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 221 minutes.
Curry/Looney: +10.7 net rating (117.1 ORTG) in 798 minutes.
Curry/Lee: +8.3 net rating (118.3 ORTG) in 387 minutes.
Curry/Bazemore: +7.3 net rating (115 ORTG) in 845 minutes.
Curry/Green: +6.9 net rating (116.2 ORTG) in 1738 minutes.
Five worst 2 man combos to play >100 minutes:
Curry/Wiseman: -8.1 net rating (101.6 ORTG) in 533 minutes.
Curry/Oubre: -1.4 (107.3 ORTG) in 1175 minutes.
Curry/Paschall: +1.4 net rating (116.3 ORTG) in 200 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins: +3.5 net rating (113.3 ORTG) in 1569 minutes.
Curry/Mulder: +6.6 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 386 minutes.
Again, not much surprising stuff here; Wiseman and Oubre joined Anderson Varejao to be the 2nd and 3rd players in the Steve Kerr Era to produce a negative net rating in a two man combo with Steph Curry that played over 100 minutes. Everybody else on the team was a beneficiary of the Steph bump, as should typically be the case.
What comes next for Steph Curry?
Should the Warriors make the playoffs next season, Steph Curry will have recently turned 34 years old. Steph Curry just became the oldest player since Michael Jordan to win a scoring title, at age 33. At that same age, Kobe Bryant put together an All-Star season and tore his achilles the following year. In Larry Bird’s age 33 season, his Celtics lost in the first round to the New York Knicks. He’d play just two more seasons before retiring. At 33, Magic Johnson was two years removed from retiring after his HIV diagnosis. Shaquille O’Neal had his last season as a 20 point a game scorer at age 33 while Tim Duncan’s minutes began to decline at that same age. Should Steph put together another All-NBA and MVP caliber season at age 34, he will be in rarified company.
This last season was very encouraging for Steph’s future prospects and his ability to stave off Father Time, but there is no guarantee that Steph Curry will give the Warriors another season where he plays nearly 90% of all available games. Each season of wear and tear on Steph’s body increases the odds that he misses games as he ages. Brandon Payne, Steph Curry’s trainer believes otherwise and told the SF Chronicle, “Stephen is, at 32 and 33, where a lot of guys are at age 27, 28. He’s still getting bigger, he’s still getting stronger, he’s still getting faster, so his improvement’s going to continue. “A lot of guys, they just get to that peak physical level a little bit earlier, then they kind of top out. Stephen hasn’t topped out yet.” That’s encouraging to hear, but when was the last time a professional trainer poo-poo’d or cast doubt on his client’s abilities in public?
I do have every reason to believe that Steph Curry will follow up his brilliant season with another excellent campaign, but I’m nervous. We should all be. It’s terrifying to contemplate what unexpected injuries, complications, or acts of God might befall the best player in Warriors’ franchise history. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA and Klay Thompson’s back-to-back ACL tear and Achilles tear are a sobering reminder of that unpleasant truth. Health permitting, I see no reason Steph Curry wouldn’t compete for the scoring title and MVP award next season. I actually think his efficiency could go up a few ticks by way of a reduced load should the Warriors front office get the help with on-ball creation and shooting this year’s team so obviously needed. If Steph Curry can shoot nearly 65% from the restricted area on a team with little credible spacing, just imagine what he could do on a well-built team with threatening shooters and competent veterans.
Of course, we don’t need to imagine that, we know what it looks like — five consecutive Finals appearances, back-to-back MVP awards, and an unprecedented combination of high volume scoring with historically elite efficiency. Steph is perfectly capable of taking the Warriors to the promised land if he is given a quality NBA roster. But will he get that? Only time will tell. Marcus Thompson of The Athletic summed up Curry’s season and what must follow perfectly: “Joe Lacob, Bob Myers and his front office, Steve Kerr — they owe Curry. He turned a lost season into something memorable. He reshaped the immediate future with his dominance, re-injecting championship hope into the mix. He just might have opened up more options in the offseason.”
What’s next for the season in review posts?
Well, I’m taking a vacation. I’ve been a good boy in the pandemic and I’m about to be fully vaccinated. I deserve this. You probably deserve a vacation too, so go take one. When I’m back I’ll move onto the wings and then to the bigs. See you all in a week or two!