The Warriors sign Donte DiVincenzo: a review of his previous season(s)
DiVincenzo's lost season with the Bucks and Kings, understanding his decline as a finisher, imagining his fit alongside both the starters and the second unit, shot charts, lineup stats, and more.
In his rookie season in the NBA, Donte DiVincenzo carved out a rotation spot on a Bucks team that would finish first in the eastern conference before losing in 6 games to the Raptors in the conference finals. DiVincenzo was unavailable in those playoffs because of an injury to his left foot and this was actually his second long absence due to injury in that rookie season. Bursitis of DiVincenzo’s left heel forced him to miss nearly 30 games between January and March of 2019 and in total, the rookie guard played only 27 games for the Bucks in the 2018-19 season. DiVincenzo had a pretty solid run of health until the first round of the playoffs during his third season, by which he was starting at the shooting guard position for the eventual champion Bucks.
During game 3 of that first-round series against the Heat, DiVincenzo tore a ligament in his left ankle that he later needed surgery for. By the time DiVincenzo was healthy, Grayson Allen had spent two months starting alongside Jrue Holiday in the Bucks’ backcourt while DDV did get a shot at playing his way back into the Bucks’ long-term plans, he was traded about six weeks after his return from injury and spent the rest of his final year on his rookie contract playing for the lowly Sacramento Kings.
Over the last four seasons of DDV’s career, he has played 27, 66, 66, and 42 games. His injury concerns prevented him from ever fully carving out a consistent role in the NBA and likely reduced his price tag to a place where the Warriors could afford to give him part of their taxpayer MLE. Of course, DiVincenzo's signing comes the day after the Warriors allowed Gary Payton II to sign with the Portland Trail Blazers for about four million dollars in annual salary — pre-luxury tax payments — more than they would later pay DDV. I have thoughts on that — ones I will mostly keep to my season-in-review for Payton — and it’s not DiVincenzo’s fault that his name will inextricably be linked to Payton’s in the eyes of Warriors fans, at least for the foreseeable future.
But DiVincenzo is a skilled player whose talents should be a natural fit within the Warriors’ system, particularly on offense. During DDV’s rookie year, I watched about as much, if not more, Bucks basketball than I did the Warriors (I lived on the East Coast, I knew people who played against Giannis Antetokounmpo as teenagers and fell in love with him as a rookie, and the final year of the KD-era Warriors was an emotional slog.... you get the picture) and I was very intrigued by his game from the start of pre-season. The Bucks ran a pretty simplistic dribble-drive offense with 5-out principles to open the court for Giannis and in the first year of the Mike Budenholzer era, that offense was even more simplistic, but DiVincenzo’s intelligence still stood out. Here’s a good video of his offensive highlights from his first month in the NBA:
Throughout the video, you’ll see that DDV can be decisive and creative with the ball in his hands. He demonstrated, even as a rookie, a sense of when to cut into open space. Look at how those offensive sets come together for the Bucks — there’s not even a fraction of the off-ball movement, back screens, and general misdirection that is central to the Warriors’ offense. DDV should have more freedom to find spaces to cut into and make plays than he did in Milwaukee or Sacramento. But the really interesting stuff, at least in my opinion, starts at the 3:08 mark, when you can see a minute of DiVincenzo’s passing chops. There’s a hint of on-ball creativity, a nascent ability to make unpredictable passes to wide-open recipients, and an instinctual sense of when to make quick touch passes to open shooters.
Here are some other assorted DDV passing clips from over the years:
I’ve posted a lot of clips about DDV’s passing because I think that might end up being the most interesting thing he can offer to the Warriors as a backup guard. If you are looking to find Gary Payton II in Donte DiVincenzo, you will only be disappointed — Gary Payton II is one of one. My girlfriend recently moved from New York to Los Angeles and prior to her move, a mutual friend of ours who’d lived in LA encouraged her not to try and find New York in LA but rather to appreciate the things about LA that make it its own city. To that point, one thing that DDV could offer to the Warriors that Gary Payton II could not is value as a secondary ball-handler and connective passer. Plus, DDV shouldn’t be relied upon to create frequently out of pick and rolls in an offense that is typically averse to that action.
DiVincenzo’s ability to pass, cut, defend, and — hopefully — shoot the ball at a high clip will make him a good fit next to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. He’s also a rugged rebounder for a guard who averaged 7.5 boards per 36 minutes during his last full-time stint as a starter. Sounds nice right? Those skills that should slot well alongside the starters might actually be even more valuable in the Warriors’ second unit. Assuming Andre Iguodala is going to retire and rookie guard, Ryan Rollins, won’t claim a spot in the second unit, DiVincenzo is a logical complement to Jordan Poole both on defense and as a secondary ball-handler.
Hopefully, a healthy DiVincenzo will allow the Warriors to avoid games where the second-unit offense is puttering out for lack of well... anyone who can do something with the ball in their hands not named Jordan Poole. If healthy, DDV’s value to the Warriors could be so immense that it will be deeply painful if he declines the player option on his deal and tries to cash out in free agency. This is the risk the Warriors took by giving him a player option on a two-year deal — a worthwhile risk — and with some luck, it’ll pay off well enough for this Warriors’ team for it to hurt next summer.
Donte DiVincenzo’s 2021-2022 statistical profile (career bests bolded):
42 games played, 24.0 minutes a game, 9.0 points a game, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 turnovers, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 1.8 fouls.
35.1% FG, 33.9% 3P, 84.3% FT, 51.0 TS% (-5.6% league average TS), 46.1% EFG (-7.1 league average EFG).
8.0 FGA, 5.2 3PA, 2.0 FTA.
BBREF: 102 ORTG, 113 DRTG, -2.4 +/- per 100 poss., -0.1 VORP, 0.35 WS/48, 18.9% USG.
NBA.com: 107.5 ORTG, 111.2 DRTG, -3.7 net rating, 18.7% USG.
In Sacramento Kings’ stint: +3.2 DIFF in non-garbage time (71st percentile), 50th percentile usage, 44tth percentile PSA, 50th percentile AST%, 57th percentile AST:Usg, 21st percentile TOV% among big position.
-0.41 ORPM, -3.69 DRPM, -4.09 RPM (#409 rank of 557 players).
I’ve spent a lot of time talking in the above paragraphs talking up the potential upside of Donte DiVincenzo, upside which is hardly visible in his counting or impact stats from this previous season. How much stock should we put into his numbers from last season? Noted medical professional and Warriors’ fan, Dr. Nirav Pandya had this to say about DiVincenzo’s signing and his previous season:
If Pandya’s view of it is correct, there’s good reason to believe that DiVincenzo should be in a better spot for the Warriors physically than he was last season. DiVincenzo, like Klay Thompson this summer, should benefit from actually having a full offseason spent working on his game rather than rehabbving. Optimistically, DDV’s on-court impact for the Warriors would more closely resemble what he did for the Sacramento Kings in the second half of the season when he had a +3.2 differential/net rating despite fairly mediocre advanced metrics on offense.
Here’s a screenshot of DiVincenzo’s on/off metrics from his four-year career, courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:
Prior to this previous season, DDV has been a positive impact player — and on winning teams. This bodes well for the Warriors.
Donte DiVincenzno’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 46.2% on 65 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 28.6% on 35 attempts.
Mid-range: 22.2% on 18 attempts.
Left corner 3: 42.3% on 26 attempts.
Right corner 3: 42.9% on 21 attempts.
Above the break 3: 31.8% on 170 attempts.
Floaters: 36.3% on 19 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 41.8% on 43 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 25.7%.
Assisted by: Davion Mitchell (21), Domantas Sabonis (8), Khris Middleton (7), De’Aaron Fox and Jrue Holiday (6), Harrison Barnes (5), Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jeremy Lamb (4), Justin Holiday and Damion Jones and Chimezie Metu (3), Pat Connaughton and George Hill and Trey Lyles and Bobby Portis Jr. (2), Alex Len and Greg Monroe and Jordan Nwora and Neemias Queta (1).
Total FG’s assisted: 82
FGM% assisted: 69.4%
FGM% unassisted: 31.6%
Donte DiVincenzo’s shot profile of a year spent between the Bucks and Kings is a curious one, especially when compared against his previous NBA seasons. Through four NBA seasons, DiVincenzo has shot 29%, 35.2%, 38.1%, and now 36.2% on catch and shoot threes. During this most recent season, He shot 38.6% on wide-open threes, the second highest percentage of his career, which is actually a decline from the 42% he shot the previous season. DiVincenzo should get a bounty of wide-open shots with the Warriors and if he’s playing alongside Steph Curry or Jordan Poole, hopefully a greater percentage of his threes come from the corners, rather than above the break, where he was a below average. Again, DiVincenzo probably won’t get asked to create much on the Warriors, and especially not out of pick and rolls, but in his only season as a full-time starter for the Bucks, he shot a solid 37.4.% on 1.5 pull-up three-point attempts a game. There might be, in the right circumstances, more offensive juice to DiVincenzo’s game than his numbers in the previous season indicate.
What is, however, quite concerning is that DiVincenzo’s terrible numbers in the restricted area are the culmination of a linear four-season decline. DiVincenzo shot 78.8% in the restricted area as a rookie, albeit on a tiny sample size. In his sophomore season, he shot 62.4% on nearly 189 attempts — this is an acceptable number — but in his career-best third season, that percentage declined to 54.3%. One possible explanation? In his sophomore year season, 60.2% of DiVincenzo’s makes in the restricted area while that percentage decreased to 53.7% in his third season. Consistent readers of my Substack — if they do exist — might recall that Jordan Poole also saw a slight drop in his restricted area finishing between his second and third season as he also started to take more unassisted shots in the restricted area — it’s pretty normal for players’ percentages to drop a little when they take on a bigger share of self-created shots.
That explanation — DDV taking more self-created shots is a satisfying one and it does apply to his fourth season, albeit in a smaller sample size as exactly 50% of DiVincenzo’s makes in the restricted area were assisted and un-assisted last season. This is a good thing, as far as the Warriors are concerned because there shouldn’t be much of a need for DiVincenzo to self-create outside of end-of-clock situations.
I’d like to think that DiVincenzo should find a home as a cutter for the Warriors, but his numbers on that playtype are actually something of a mystery. In each of DiVincenzo’s seasons, his points-per-possession (PPP) percentile has declined. This previous’ season’s sample size — which claims he’s at or around the 10th percentile when combining his stats for both the Bucks and Kings — is small enough to be nearly meaningless. But in that third season where he started for the Bucks, DDV ranked in the 13th percentile as a cutter. Well over 100 players in the NBA were more efficient finishers than DiVincenzo on cuts. But in that same season, DiVincenzo cut less than once a game, which I suspect can be traced back to the rudimentary 5-out Bucks’ offense under Mike Budenholzer.
Take, for example, Andrew Wiggins — even in the 2020-21 season when he started alongside Kelly Oubre Jr. and James Wiseman for much of the season, Wiggins still managed to cut more than once a game. In this past season, 7 of the Warriors’ 14 qualifying players cut less than once a game, per NBA.com: Nemanja Bjelica, Otto Porter Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole, Andre Iguodala, and Moses Moody. Now consider Gary Payton II, whose minutes (but not necessarily role), DiVincenzo figures to replace — Payton cut 107 times in 71 games last season for the Warriors. DiVincenzo should have more ball-handling responsibilities than GPII and might more closely resemble someone like a Payton and Iguodala hybrid, albeit with far more athleticism than the 37-year-old version of Iguodala. This is all to say, DiVincenzo should have more opportunites to cut for the Warriors and hopefully, his effectiveness as a cutter improves.
I’ve included shot charts from Positive Residual of DiVincenzo’s previous three seasons below:
2021-22:
2020-21:
2019-20:
The lineup stats:
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Barnes/Lyles/Jones: +49.8 net rating (142.7 ORTG) in 82 possessions.
Fox/DiVincenzo/Holiday/Barnes/Sabonis: -7.8 net rating (116.2 ORTG) in 74 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Barnes/Metu/Jones: -34.2 net rating (95.9 ORTG) in 74 possessions.
Fox/DiVincenzo/Barnes/Lyles/Sabonis: +28.3 net rating (117.4 ORTG) in 69 possessions.
Holiday/DiVincenzo/Connaughton/Middleton/Portis: -9.7 net rating (129 ORTG) in 62 possessions.
DiVincenzo/Lamb/Jackson/Metu/Quetias: +15.9 net rating (106.8 ORTG) in 44 possessions.
Holiday/DiVincenzo/Connaughton/Matthews/Antetokounmpo: -4.7 net rating (130.2 ORTG) in 43 possessions.
Fox/Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Barnes/Sabonis: -26.2 net rating (100 ORTG) in 41 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Holiday/Metu/Jones: +10.7 net rating (131.3 ORTG) in 32 possessions.
Fox/Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Metu/Holmes: +49 net rating (167.7 ORTG) in 31 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Lamb/Metu/Jones: -80 net rating (70 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Fox/DiVincenzo/Lamb/Barnes/Sabonis: +34 net rating (114.8 ORTG) in 27 possessions.
DiVincenzo/Lamb/Holiday/Metu/Len: -13.1 net rating (126.9 ORTG) in 26 possessions.
Holdayi/DiVincenzo/Connaughton/Middleton/Antetokounmpo: -57 net rating (68 ORTG) in 25 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Holiday/Metu/Holmes: +18.6 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 23 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Lamb/Metu/Len: +42.6 net rating (147.6 ORTG) in 21 possessions.
Fox/Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Lamb/Jones: -77.9 net rating (57.1 ORTG) in 21 possessions.
Hill/DiVincenzo/Connaughton/Mattews/Antetokounmpo: +33.3 net rating (114.3 ORTG) in 21 possessions.
Mitchell/DiVincenzo/Holiday/Barnes/Sabonis: +9.5 net rating (81 ORTG) in 21 possessions.
Only four of the lineups that are listed above are from DiVincenzo’s stint with the Milwaukee Bucks. Only one of those Bucks’ lineups came positive and that is in a 21-possession sample size. Go figure. I’m not sure what to make of that. I am intrigued by how most of the lineups that have multiple ball-handling guards have above-average ORTG’s, even if some of those lineups don’t come up positive. Given that most of these lineups come from DVincenzo’s stint with a bad Kings team, I’m not inclined to put too much weight into these so let’s take a look at the lineups he played in during his healthy years with the Bucks in 2020-21 and 2019-20 (lineups highlighted in green are positive:
2020-21:
2019-20:
Lots of positive lineups here, which should come as no surprise given that the Bucks were the #1 seed in the east in consecutive seasons. I think the most intriguing lineups over both of the seasons highlighted above are ones where DiVincenzo played without Giannis Antetokounmpo. In the 2019-20 season, lineups with Khris Middelton and DiVincenzo as the two nominal ball-handlers managed to come positive. In some instances, Eric Bledsoe, who would later get played off of the court in the playoffs, flanked DDV and Middleton. In other lineups, George Hill is there instead of Bledsoe. This should bode well for DiVincenzo’s ability to play alongside Jordan Poole in lineups without Steph Curry.
Lineups with DiVincenzo playing alongside Antetokounmpo without Middleton over these two seasons mostly fare well. On the Warriors, DiVincenzo will play alongside more shooting than he’s used to and wihle they are obviously quite different players, maybe we can use Giannis and Steph Curry as imperfect mirrors of each other — transcendent superstars with a once-in-a-generation gravitational pull on the court. DiVincenzo clearly understood how to play alongside Giannis, albeit in a far more rudimentary system, which will make it intriguing to see how DDV learns to fit alongside Steph Curry and a collection of players with much higher IQ’s and more broad skillsets than he shared the court with in Milwaukee.