The Warriors sign Otto Porter Jr: a review of his previous season(s)
A statistical profile of OPJ, shot charts, lineup stats, and trying to find predictive value in his most recent seasons.
In the summer of 2017, Otto Porter Jr. signed a max deal with the Washington Wizards that paid him north of $25 million annually. At the time this deal was somewhat defensible, if only because of what quality wings are worth on the open market — Porter Jr. was only 23 years old and could capably guard multiple positions and was coming off a season of 43% from three on more than four attempts a game. In the years following, Porter Jr. played 77, 56, 41, 14, and 28 games and was traded twice for increasingly poor returns.
Porter Jr.’s injury concerns are the primary reason the Warriors were able to bid for his services with only minimum contracts and the taxpayer MLE to offer. That the Warriors were able to sign Porter Jr. on a minimum contract and not have to dip into the TPMLE is quite the surprise. Porter Jr. reportedly had MLE offers on the table and turned them down to play with the Warriors, which was exactly the type of news Warriors fans needed after Nicolas Batum, who was an assumed target for the Warriors, returned to the Los Angeles Clippers on a minimum deal and Kent Bazemore turned down a bigger contract from the Warriors to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Remember the final games of Kelly Oubre Jr.’s season with the Warriors? With Kent Bazemore starting, Oubre came off of the bench as a 3/4 type. This is more or less the role Porter Jr. should play with the Warriors, although it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if Kerr considers starting him alongside Andrew Wiggins to start the season if Klay Thompson isn’t fully recovered from his achilles tear. Porter Jr. has the size to play the 4 and the shooting ability to let the Warriors play 3 oversized wings together in the frontcourt.
Porter Jr. is not an aggressive scorer like Oubre, so don’t expect explosive scoring night. In many ways, Porter Jr. is quite the opposite of Oubre. Porter Jr. doesn’t hunt his own shots — to the point that Washington press would occasionally needle him for not taking a bigger role in the Wizards’ offense — and he’s not much of a risk taker. What he is is a very capable catch and shoot player who can cut into open buckets and won’t do much stupid shit, which should be a breath of fresh air after the Kelly Oubre Jr. Experience.
If Porter Jr. is healthy, which is a big if, he could play at least 20 minutes a game for this Warriors team. There are minutes to fill at the wings. Klay Thompson’s health is a question mark and the Warriors would benefit from pushing someone like Damion Lee further down the depth chart. Porter Jr.’s presence should also give Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody some competition for minutes at the wing. If the two rookies earn minutes over Porter Jr., the Warriors should be thrilled, but if they don’t, they’ll have a capable veteran player there to soak up minutes, if healthy.
It’s not hard to imagine the Warriors going small with Steph Curry and Jordan Poole in the backcourt alongside a frontcourt of Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. and Draymond Green, or perhaps a similar bench unit with Jordan Poole and Damion Lee and a wing trio of Wiggins, Porter Jr., and Juan Toscano Anderson. Although he doesn’t provide the playmaking ability of Batum, the target most frequently connected to the Warriors before free agency, a healthy Porter Jr. is the type of connective player that can let the Warriors play small guards together and make a more serious attempt at luring someone like Patty Mills and not be overly concerned about defense in bench units.
Otto Porter Jr.’s statistical profile* (career bests bolded):
*I’ve only included Porter Jr.’s numbers from Cleaning the Glass for his stint with the Bulls as he only played 66 minutes for the Magic this year.
38 games played, 21.7 minutes a game, 9.7 points a game, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 turnovers, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 1.3 fouls.
43.2% FG, 37.5% 3P, 85.7% FT, 55.2 TS% (-2.0% league average TS), 51.8% EFG (-2.0 league average EFG).
8.1 FGA, 3.7 3PA, 1.5 FTA.
BBREF: 113 ORTG, 112 DRTG, -2.8 +/- per 100 poss., 0.2 VORP, 1.01 WS/48, 19.3% USG.
NBA.com: 106.6 ORTG, 109.6 DRTG, -3.0 net rating, 18.4% USG.
0.18 ORPM, -1.84 DRPM, -1.66 RPM (#336 rank of 534 players).
Shockingly, 38 games played is not a career low for Otto Porter Jr. In the COVID-19 shortened 2019-2020 season, Porter Jr. played only 14 games for the lottery bound Chicago Bulls. Once the headliner of a deal where the Bulls sent out Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis to Washington for Porter Jr.’s services, the Bulls benched him in favor of rookie forward, Patrick Williams. The Athletic’s Anthony Slater reached out to a source in Chicago who told him the following about Porter Jr.’s stint with the Bulls:
Why hadn’t it worked there? Injuries, of course, but also, when he was on the court, it seemed as if he lacked motivation, the source said. It was a pretty miserable work environment for much of Porter’s time with the Bulls. Losing, regime changes and the Jim Boylen experience have a way of sapping a player’s drive.
It’s worth noting that the coach who decided to start Williams at the small forward was not Boylen, who effectively inspired a team wide munity and improbably held onto his job after said munity, but recent Bulls hire, Billy Donavan. The decision to bench Porter Jr. was sound — Williams is a promising wing, Porter Jr. hasn’t had a clean bill of health in quite some time, and his counting numbers and shooting efficiency declined for the third straight year before he was traded mid-season to the Orlando Magic.
What can we learn from Porter Jr.’s 38 game season? A few things stick out to me: even though Porter Jr. shot as badly as he has since he was 22 years old, he still shot it above league average from the three; Porter Jr. had a career high 3.3 assists per 36 minutes and he smashed his previous career high of 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes in his age 23 season to grab 9 rebounds p er 36 minutes.
The rebounding increase is probably role dependent. Basketball Reference says that Porter Jr. played >50% of his minutes this year at the 4 (I take BBREF’s position numbers with a grain of salt in large part because they believe that Draymond Green played 48% and 59% of his minutes as... a small forward in 2017-18 and 2018-19) and when I look through CTG’s lineup stats, the lineup combos bear out that he spent most of his time at the 4. Per CTG, Porter Jr. performed far better at the 4 (+0.6 net rating) than he did the 3 (-8.5 net rating.)
I’m not sure what to make of Porter Jr.’s increased assist numbers, but I think they’re encouraging. Steve Kerr’s offense demands ball movement and while you wouldn’t want to put the ball in Porter Jr.’s hands to create shots for others, the numbers indicate that he should keep the ball moving. What I’m most curious about is whether Porter Jr. will see more minutes at the 3 or 4. Maybe positions don’t even matter anymore — a frontcourt of Otto Porter Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Draymond Green doesn’t need positional distinctions if they’re playing alongside Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. But I wouldn’t put it past Steve Kerr to try and steal minutes for Porter Jr. next to Andrew Wiggins, especially as Klay Thompson returns from injury. That fit might be a bit more clumsy, especially as Porter Jr. does not have the same athletic verve he had when he was younger and had a less extensive medical record.
Otto Porter Jr.’s shot profile:
Restricted area: 72.5% on 40 attempts.
Non-restricted area paint: 31.6% on 38 attempts.
Mid-range: 39.1% on 46 attempts.
Left corner 3: 45% on 20 attempts.
Right corner 3: 54.5% on 11 attempts.
Above the break 3: 33.8% on 71 attempts.
Floaters: 35% on 20 attempts.
Layups and fingers rolls: 67.4% on 43 attempts.
FGA% per total drives: 66.0%.
Assisted by: Zach Lavine (21), Tomas Satoransky (12), Wendell Carter Jr. (11), Thaddeus Young (8), Coby White (7), Ryan Arcidiacono (3), Garret Temple, Michal Carter-Williams, Chandler Hutchinson, and Lauri Markkanen (2), Terrence Ross, James Ennis, Christiano Felicio, and Daniel Gafford (1).
Total FG’s assisted: 72
FGM% assisted: 73.4%
FGM% unassisted: 26.6%
Otto Porter Jr. was a highly effective three point shooter off the catch in a small sample size this past season. That tracks with his career numbers — Porter Jr. hasn’t shot less than 40% on catch and shoot since the 2015-16 season. The two percentages that were most interesting to me were his percentages in the restricted area and from pull-up 2’s. Porter Jr. has shot over 40% on pull-up 2’s since his third year in the league, so that number also tracks.
In 14 games in the 2019-2020 season, Porter Jr. shot 42.3% in the restricted area. In 56 games the year prior, he shot 64.9% in the restricted area in stints with losing Wizards and Bulls teams. In the 2017-18 season, the Wizards made the playoffs with the 8th seed — this was effectively the last time Porter Jr. was playing meaningful minutes for a good ish team and also John Wall’s last season pre-Achilles tear — and shot 68.6% from the restricted area. When the Wizards were a 4 seed and Porter Jr. had just signed his max contract, he shot 70.1% from the restricted area. So there is some precedent for Porter Jr. being a good finisher, although it’s worth noting that he’s had over 65% of his restricted area makes were assisted in all but one season — the 2019-2020 season where he played so few games that the sample size is effectively worthless.
Otto Porter Jr.’s shot profile basically tells you that he’ll shoot the piss out of the ball on catch and shoot threes, he will attack closeouts and hit pull-up mid range shots if there isn’t a path to the rim, but he won’t be creating many of his own shots. That description also applies to Damion Lee, who should fit very well next to Porter Jr., but the former max contract wing offers a lot more defensive ability and rebounding when healthy.
I’ve included screenshots of Porter Jr.’s shot charts from his most recent season and his 2018-19 and 2017-18 season from Positive Residual:
2020-2021:
2018-19:
2017-18:
The lineup stats!
Starting off with Cleaning the Glass’s non-garbage time numbers, as always, for notable 5 man combos (positive ones bolded):
C. White/Z. LaVine/OPJ/P. Williams/W. Carter: -22.5 net rating (106.3 ORTG) in 142 possessions.
C. White/LaVine/G. Temple/OPJ/W. Carter: -11.3 net rating (110.5 ORTG) in 57 possessions.
C. White/Z. LaVine/G. Temple/OPJ Jr./T. Young: +10.4 net rating (112.9 ORTG) in 48 possessions.
C. White/R. Arcidiacono/D. Valentine/OPJ/W. Carter: -8.3 net rating (93.8 ORTG) in 48 possessions.
C. White/Z. LaVine/D. Valentine/OPJ/W. Carter: +11.1 net rating (140.5 OTRG) in 37 possessions.
T. Satoransky/G. Temple/D. Valentine/OPJ/T. Young: +13.9 net rating (108.3 ORTG) in 37 possessions.
T. Satoranksy/Z. LaVine/G. Temple/OPJ/T. Young: -13.5 net rating (80.6 ORTG) in 31 possessions.
T. Satoranksy/Z. LaVine/OPJ/L. Markkanen/W. Carter: -10 net rating (90.0 ORTG) in 30 possessions.
Z. LaVine/G. Temple/D. Valentine/OPJ/T. Young: +37.9 net rating (125.9 ORTG) in 27 possessions.
T. Satoranksy/Z. LaVine/OPJ/P. Williams/W. Carter: -18.1 net rating (111.5 ORTG) in 26 possessions.
C. White/Z. LaVine/OPJ/P. Williams/T. Young: +20.1 net rating (142.3 ORTG) in 26 possessions.
C. White/G. Temple/OPJ/L. Markkanen/T. Young: +44 net rating (108 ORTG) in 25 possessions.
Z. LaVine/G. Temple/OPJ/T. Young/W. Carter: -113.3 net rating (66.7 ORTG) in 21 possessions.
We’re operating with very small sample sizes here — how else do you get a -113.3 net rating? — so take all these numbers with a grain of salt. I don’t know what to make of these lineups because I didn’t watch much of the Bulls this year, but it does stand out that all but one of the positive lineups is a small ball lineup with Thaddeus Young at the 5. The other thing that stands out to me after digging a bit deeper on individual numbers for Chicago’s players is that the Bulls rarely had more than two accurate, high volume shooters on the court in Porter Jr. lineups. The Warriors figure to have several credible shooters that Porter Jr. can play off of next year and they have smallball 5’s like Draymond Green, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and the newly signed Nemaja Bjelica (also a legitimate 3 point shooter) for OPJ to play next to.
Out of curiosity I went back to CTG’s non-garbage time lineup numbers for Otto Porter Jr.’s 2018-19 and 2017-18 season. As I mentioned earlier, the 18-19 season, during which John Wall tore his Achilles tendon, was Porter Jr.’s final season with the Wizards, and the 17-18 season is the last time OPJ played for a winning basketball team. Because of the significant track record of injuries Porter Jr. has racked up since, I don’t know how much predictable evidence we can take from these numbers, but they are nonetheless interesting and I’ve screenshotted them below.
2018-19:
2017-18:
What’s next for Otto Porter Jr.?
It’s in Otto Porter Jr.’s best interest to have a bounceback season with the Warriors and be able to command 8 figures in free agency in the summer of 2022. Prior to his health issues, OPJ was overpaid, but worth at least $20 million annually at his peak. It’s unlikely he reaches those peaks in San Francisco, but the Warriors offer him an environment that should be amenable to his skillset and if things break the right way, Porter Jr. should be far out of the Warriors’ price range next summer.
Even the diminished version of Otto Porter Jr. who plays less than 50 games could be useful to the Warriors next season, barring an even more precipitous physical decline. It’s likely that version of Porter Jr. would have been more useful to the Warriors last season than Kelly Oubre Jr, just on shooting ability alone. Factor in also OPJ’s risk averse style, and you can see how he’d fit in as a low-usage shooter who won’t do dumb shit and will force defenders to stay connected to him beyond the three point line.
It would be great if Porter Jr. can still guard premier wings, but even if that’s physically beyond his ability at this point in his career, he should still be a smart off-ball defender who can bang with 4’s. Maybe Porter Jr. becomes the de-facto small ball 5 on defense while the more physically reliable Juan Toscano-Anderson guards the more threatening wing players. Maybe Porter Jr. can be a roaming 4 on defense with Draymond Green at the 5 and Andrew Wiggins on guards. You get the idea.
But the thing that is most exciting (to me, that is) about Porter Jr.’s signing is that it signals an organizational commitment to shooting. Jordan Poole, Damion Lee, Porter Jr., and the newly signed Nemanja Bjelica, who I’ll write about soon, is actually a pretty good collection of credible three point shooters off of the bench. If Moses Moody is playable as a rookie, the Warriors now have five respectable three point shooters on the bench to supplement the once-in-a-generation shooting of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
It should be practically impossible for Steve Kerr to trot out lineups that can’t shoot next year! James Wiseman, should he actually play key minutes for the Warriors, shouldn’t have to roll into clogged paints when he sets screens at the top of the key for Steph Curry. Andrew Wiggins, if he’s still on the roster, should have an easier time driving to the hoop because defenders won’t feel as comfortable planting themselves in the paint to cut off drives.
This in turn, might mean that Wiggins shoots more free throws (he shot it more frequently on drives last year than he has at any point in his career despite averaging a career low on drives) because defenders have to rotate over a greater distance to contest his drives. Steph Curry will probably get double teamed at the top of the key until the day he retires, but giving him even a sliver more daylight via increased spacing is always a plus.
The Otto Porter Jr. signing doesn’t clog every hole on the Warriors’ roster, but it gives them versatility, lineup options, and much needed spacing in bench units. The best case scenario in which Porter Jr.’s body cooperates for 70+ games and he regains some of his previous athletic ability is unlikely, but even the median case scenarios for Porter Jr.’s stint with the Warriors should be useful. For a veteran minimum signing, it’s harder to ask for more than that.
In a few days I will have something up on the Warriors’ signing of Nemnja Bjelica. Summer League also looms and I’d like to have some content up for that, but the games conflict with my work schedule so I may have to resort to a longer review post at the end of Summer League. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy this post!