Warriors week-in-review: 10/18 - 10/24
Lineup stats, assorted notes on the Warriors' rotation players, and the underwhelming (and encouraging) play of Jordan Poole.
Who did the Warriors play?
The Warriors opened the season against the Los Angeles Lakers in Staples Center on Tuesday night, had their home opener against the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, and began a two-game road trip with an early evening game against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday.
How did they do?
The Warriors went 3-0!
What happened?
The Warriors opened the regular season by beating the Lakers 121-114 and survived a patented Staples Center clunker from Steph Curry who shot 5/21 from the field. In the first half of the game, the Warriors looked out of sorts. The Warriors couldn’t stop throwing the ball away, Draymond Green’s foul trouble led to repeated Anthony Davis ISO’s on Juan Toscano-Anderson, and LeBron James turned into Michael Jordan in the midpost. The Warriors calmed down some in the second quarter, but the Lakers went into halftime with a 59-53 lead, and frankly, the Warriors were lucky to only be down six points.
Steve Kerr went small only a few minutes into the third quarter and the Warriors found some offensive flow as Jordan Poole started to hit three-point shots. The Warriors started to chip into the Laker’s lead when Nemanja Bjelica subbed in for Draymond Green. Bjelica played pretty much the final 14 minutes of the game and it was during the second unit’s minutes that the Warriors took control of the game. Jordan Poole played through a rolled ankle and had a dominant two-minute stretch — without Steph Curry or Draymond Green — where he scored and assisted on 9 points.
When Poole subbed out, Steph Curry checked in and the Warriors closed out the Lakers with playmaking out of the short roll. Even on one of the worst shooting nights Steph Curry has ever had at Staples Center, the Lakers threw aggressive traps at him above the break. While last year’s Warriors team often struggled to punish those traps — especially before James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre Jr.’s injuries — this group of players forced the Lakers to defend across the entire court to defend threatening shooters who could make plays off the dribble.
Nemanja Bjelica was central to the Warriors closing’ lineup and repeatedly made brilliant passes as he attacked closeouts and well-timed cuts into the paint. This play, where Draymond Green hits a cutting Bjelica after two defenders hound Steph Curry, who has just received a screen from Bjelica, was effectively the dagger that put the game out of the way for good:
Two nights later, the Warriors came out on fire in the first quarter against the Clippers in front of a hungry crowd at the Chase Center. The first quarter was basketball nirvana — the Warriors moved the ball with intention, Andrew Wiggins hit open threes and made smart passes to shooters from the paint, and Steph Curry had 25 points and didn’t miss a single shot.
At the end of the period, the Warriors led 44-27 and the Jordan Poole-led second unit still had a 16-point lead when Steph Curry checked back in around the 7:30 mark in the second quarter. Things went south shortly after Clippers coach, Ty Lue, subbed Terrence Mann back into the game. The Warriors had 8 turnovers in the second quarter (4 of which Curry was responsible for) and made only 9 field goals in those 12 minutes, due in large part because of Mann’s brilliant defense on Steph Curry. Paul George carried the Clippers’ offense in the second quarter and dragged his team to an improbable 67-66 lead at the end of the first half.
The aggressive defense of Terrence Mann and Eric Bledsoe turned the second half into an offensive slog for the Warriors. Mann came into the game less than a minute into the third quarter and spent most of the third quarter gumming up the Warriors’ motion offense and preventing clean looks from the three-point line. The game should have turned in the Clippers’ favor in the fourth quarter during the Warriors’ second unit minutes — Jordan Poole was loose and reckless with the ball in his hands and Andre Iguodala played nearly two minutes with a heavy limp after falling on his hip — but somehow the second unit tied the game up in 6 very ugly minutes.
Steph Curry checked back into the game at the 5:53 mark in the quarter and his clutch shotmaking was obviously the big story after the Warriors’ 115-13 victory, but the Warriors wouldn’t have won this game without the defense of their small-ball unit that closed. Andre Iguodala was characteristically and understatedly brilliant in his minutes and for the second game in a row, helped close the game out for the Warriors, but the Warriors also got solid minutes from Damion Lee in the fourth quarter. Lee made key buckets in the second unit’s stint, held his own defensively with the closing unit and made this brilliant read to get Steph Curry a rare transition relocation three in crunch time:
The Warriors’ Sunday evening game against a much-improved Sacramento Kings team was a fascinating test of the Warriors’ depth and Steve Kerr’s willingness to mix up his rotation. Andre Iguodala, who figured to be useful against a speedy and chaotic Kings team, missed Sunday’s game in order to nurse his left hip. In his absence, Gary Payton II got his first shot at extended minutes and was a crucial part of the Warriors’ 119-107 win. Payton II was a pest on defense against the Kings’ guard trio of Davion Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, and De’Aaron Fox, but he also hit two open threes and got out in transition for easy points that were absolutely necessary in a close game.
The Kings played a very good game against the Warriors and this iteration of the Kings can force teams to jigger their rotations to match up with them. Nemanja Bjelica got his typical first quarter minutes against the Kings, but it soon became clear that he didn’t have the defensive foot speed to keep up in this game — the Kings attacked Bjelica on the move and burned him for easy buckets and after a brief stint in the second quarter, he didn’t play again.
The Warriors’ second unit looked out of sorts in their first stint of minutes without Andre Iguodala and when Steph Curry checked in at the 6:19 mark of the second quarter, the Warriors had fallen behind by 8 points. Steph Curry’s presence made things easier for the Warriors’ offense, but the Kings went into halftime with a 62-59 lead.
In the third quarter, the speed of the Kings forced Steve Kerr to go small after less than 5 minutes. Kevon Looney and Nemanja Bjelica did not play again in the game and from this point, Draymond Green or Juan Toscano-Anderson operated as the Warriors’ nominal center. The Kings and the Warriors effectively played each other to draw in the third quarter, but the Warriors seized control of the game in the first six minutes of the fourth quarter as Gary Payton II hit two big threes, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Otto Porter Jr. played tough defense and grabbed contested rebounds, and Jordan Poole made smart plays off of the dribble.
The Warriors’ second unit played so well that Jordan Poole played the entire fourth quarter and JTA and OPJ split time in the closing unit. Another thing of note: Steph Curry didn’t score a single point in the fourth quarter. Last year, that would have been a death spell for the Warriors’ offense, but this team has enough smart players who can shoot, pass, or dribble, that they can survive quiet quarters from Curry.
What lineups played lots of minutes this week?
Here are the Warriors’ 15 most used 5-man lineups (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/Green/Looney: -1.2 net rating (115.3 ORTG) in 33 minutes
Poole/Lee/Iguodala/OPJ/Bjelica: +10.5 net rating (102 ORTG) in 10 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Wiggins/Green/Bjelica: +11.8 net rating (105.9 ORTG) in 8 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +9.9 net rating (121.1 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/OPJ/Green: +78.1 net rating (105.9 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala/JTA/Bjelica: +53.3 net rating (153.3 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala/OPJ/Bjelica: +67 net rating (138.5 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Poole/Lee/Iguodala/OPJ/JTA: -15.3 net rating (122.2 ORTG) in 5 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Wiggins/Iguodala/Green: -23.6 net rating (136.4 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala/JTA/Green: -11.1 net rating (100 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala/Green/Bjelica: -18.2 net rating (100 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Poole/GPII/Lee/Wiggins/JTA: +75 net rating (162.5 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Poole/Lee/OPJ/JTA/Bjelica: -12.5 net rating (87.5 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Green: -0.8 net rating (108.3 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/Moody/Wiggins/Green/Bjelica: -112.5 net rating (62.5 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
We are, for the most part, dealing with very small sample sizes here. The starting lineup has played more than 3 times as many minutes as the next most played 5-man lineup and is doing fine on defense, but is struggling to defend. There’s not much else we can draw from these sample sizes, but there are plenty of lineups here that I want to see play more minutes and have more data to examine.
Here are the Warriors’ 15 most used three-man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Wiggins/Green: +4.2 net rating (114.1 ORTG) in 79 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Green: +12.1 net rating (112.1 ORTG) in 48 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins: +12.4 net rating (114.3 ORTG) in 47 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Green: +12.3 net rating (113.2 ORTG) in 47 minutes.
Wiggins/Green/Looney: +3 net rating (109.8 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Curry/Green/Looney: +7 net rating (114.7 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Looney: +3.1 net rating (112 ORTG) in 43 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Looney: -6.1 net rating (106.4 ORTG) in 35 minutes.
Poole/Green/Looney; -6.3 net rating (110.4 ORTG) in 35 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Green: -3.3 net rating (115 ORTG) in 35 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Looney: -1.2 net rating (115.3 ORTG) in 33 minutes.
Lee/Iguodala/Bjelica: +27.1 net rating (125.4 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Poole/Lee/OPJ: +7.1 net rating (103.6 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Lee/Iguodala/OPJ: +36.2 net rating (119.2 ORTG) in 26 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala: +16.7 net rating (121.7 ORTG) in 26 minutes.
Now that we have some bigger sample sizes, things get a little more interesting. The three-man combos that received over 40 minutes are all variations of the starting unit. As we go down the list, we see some mixed starter/bench units. One combo sticks out to me here: Poole/Wiggins/Looney. This three-man combo plays with the starters, but also typically plays 3 or so minutes in the second quarter before Jordan Poole sits, but after Looney and Wiggins sub in for Nemanja Bjelica and Andre Iguodala.
As we go down the list, we see that Andre Iguodala shows up in some of the combos with the highest net rating. Out of curiosity, I kept going past the 15 most used combos and it wasn’t until I got to three-man combos to receive less than 15 minutes that I found a negative one with Iguodala: Curry/Iguodala/Green had a -14.5 net rating and a paltry 97 ORTG in 14 minutes last week. I doubt that the bleh performance of that combo means much right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Here are the Warriors’ 15 most used two-man combos (positive ones bolded):
Curry/Green: +2.1 net rating (110.8 ORTG) in 94 minutes.
Wiggins/Green: +4.1 net rating (112.8 ORTG) in 79 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins: +4.2 net rating (114.1 ORTG) in 79 minutes.
Wiggins/OPJ: +16.1 net rating (111.4 ORTG) in 56 minutes.
Poole/Green: +12 net rating (109.5 ORTG) in 51 minutes.
Curry/Lee: +12.7 net rating (123.4 ORTG) in 49 minutes.
Green/Looney: +2 net rating (111.2 ORTG) in 47 minutes.
Curry/Poole: +12.3 net rating (113.2 ORTG) in 47 minutes.
Wiggins/Looney: +0.2 net rating (105.7 ORTG) in 46 minutes.
Lee/Iguodala: +20.4 net rating (119.4 ORTG) in 45 minutes.
Curry/Looney: +7 net rating (114.7 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Lee/OPJ: +17.8 net rating (114.3 ORTG) in 42 minutes.
Lee/Bjelica: +20.2 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 39 minutes.
Lee/Green: -4.5 net rating (112.5 ORTG) in 38 minutes.
Poole/Looney: -11.6 net rating (103.7 ORTG) in 37 minutes.
As I tallied up these lineups, I checked Basketball Reference to see what the league average ORTG is so far for the 2021-2022 season and was surprised to see a league average ORTG of 107.1. For reference, that would be the lowest league average ORTG since 2015-16’s 106.4, while last season’s league average ORTG was 112.3. We’ll keep an eye on that as the year goes on, but for the time being, there’s only two combos listed above that did not have a league average ORTG: Poole/Looney and Wiggins/Looney. Both of those combos have seen some playing time without Steph Curry in the 2nd quarter, which is less than ideal.
Some other things stand out to me: Curry/Green isn’t blowing the doors off teams offensively, but that’s probably a function of Curry and Green spending a fair amount of time next to Kevon Looney in the starting lineup. I think it’s also interesting to see that Curry/Poole combo has defended capably in its minutes together. If Poole earns more minutes in the closing unit, I assume it would be specifically because his defense is holding up, so maybe there’s a chicken and egg thing going on here. The lineup data has been kind to Damion Lee through the first three games of the regular season and I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays about as much as Andrew Wiggins does this year.
POOLE WATCH BABY!!!
Jordan Poole had an uneven week to start the season after looking like one of the best players in the world in the preseason. Poole’s preseason was great, but it was unreasonable to expect him to keep up 50/40/90 splits, so a comedown was inevitable.
By my estimation, Poole has played two or three quarters of great basketball and has otherwise been mediocre or downright bad. Poole put the team on his back in the fourth quarter of the regular season opener against the Lakers and played a huge role in the Warriors’ fourth quarter run against the Kings on Sunday night. In his best moments, Poole has made use of Steve Kerr’s motion offense to get the ball on the move and attack rotating defenders and DHO’s at the top of the key have been a great way for Poole to attack with a full head of steam. When Poole has had bad stretches, he’s overdribbled and hunted shots outside of the flow of the offense.
What has been encouraging about Poole’s struggles is that he’s made improvements within the same game and ditched the overdribbling for timely cuts and aggressive off-ball motion. Poole has also been pretty ok on defense for the most part. In preseason, Steve Kerr was burning about one timeout per game to berate Jordan Poole for falling asleep backdoor. That hasn’t happened yet in the regular season, although Poole can still struggle fighting over screens or get too deep in the paint when he rotates over on drives. Poole’s best game defensively came against the Kings, which was something of a surprise — De’Aaron Fox is one of the fastest guards in the entire NBA and I expected Poole to struggle with him, but for the most part, Poole did a great job of defending with his body and not racking up reach-in fouls.
Here are Poole’s numbers for each game:
10/19 vs the Lakers: 20 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2 turnovers on 8/18 FG, 4/11 3P, and 0/1 FT in 25:04 minutes.
10/21 vs the Clippers: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 7 turnovers on 4/14 FG, 1/6 3P, and 0 FT in 25:11 minutes.
10/24 vs the Kings: 22 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers on 8/16 FG, 2/5 3P, and 4/4 FT in 31:54 minutes.
Through three games, Jordan Poole is averaging 17 points a game, 3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers per game on 42/32/80 splits in 27.3 minutes. Those numbers will get better and the Warriors should be excited that Poole is producing at this volume despite the fact that he hasn’t put together a full game of solid play yet.
Here’s a visual representation of Poole’s shot chart so far, courtesy of Positive Residual:
Assorted notes
I’m going to use bullet points here to put together some stray thoughts:
It has been a delight to see the speed of the Warriors’ ball movement in the halfcourt, but it also makes Andrew Wiggins look painfully slow and out of place in the Warriors’ offense. Wiggins is somehow more invisible than ever on offense, at least until he stops to dribble the ball out of the air. The Wiggins experience is frustrating as ever — he’s taken only 13 shots in the restricted area through three games — but to his credit, he’s only taken three midrange shots so far!
Damion Lee, the person who has the most obvious claim to steal Wiggins’ minutes has been a delight to watch. It struck me a few nights ago that Lee is now sixth-most tenured Warrior after the championship core of Curry, Klay, Draymond, Kevon Looney, and Andre Iguodala. Lee’s constant motion on offense has helped the Warriors survive, and occasionally win their minutes without Steph Curry, and when Lee has gotten minutes with the starters, he’s made clutch shots and held his own on defense. There have even been a few instances where Lee initiates at the top of the key, which is a testament to how much he’s grown as a player. These possessions do not fill me with terror because I trust that Lee will take (and likely make) a midrange pull-up if the defense gives him that shot or he will get deep enough in the paint to make a smart kick out that will force the defense to rotate.
Moses Moody is the likely long-term replacement for Damion Lee and while he did get his first DNP on Sunday night, he’s been competent in meaningful minutes, which is a big win for a rookie playing on a team with deep playoff aspirations. Moody hasn’t hit a three yet, but he’s made several impressive passes that hint at a high level of offensive feel.
In the preseasons, I grouped together Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Juan Toscano-Anderson as “The Draymond’s”, which I thought was a clever way to designate their very similar positions/roles within Steve Kerr’s offense. I think it’s now safe to add Otto Porter Jr. to that list. OPJ’s performance in the first week has been fascinating and confusing: he’s barely shooting it from deep and he struggles to contain small guards on the perimeter, but he’s been a solid interior defender, an aggressive rebounder, and he’s made smart passes... out of the post on split post sets??? Before the season, I would have expected OPJ to be bombing threes out of the split post sets, but it turns out that his best utility so far has been as a 4/5 who keeps the ball moving and plays the type of excellent positional defense that lets the Warriors go small.
The play of the real Draymond Green has been mildly encouraging so far. He still hunts fouls more often than I’d like on drives to the hoop, rather than actually trying to put the ball in the bucket, but he’s cutting with purpose when he doesn’t have the ball and his defense has been typically excellent.
The other Draymond’s, Andre Iguodala and Juan Toscano-Anderson, have been good enough defending up a position that the Warriors have been able to go small to close games without getting killed on defense or the glass. JTA is getting the more physically challenging defensive assignments when he shares the court with Andre, but Iguodala still has generational ability to swipe the ball from his opponents and he’s been a calming force on offense, particularly with the second unit where Jordan Poole is the primary ball handler.
The solid defense and rebounding of JTA, Iguodala, OPJ, and Draymond has allowed Steve Kerr to plant Nemanja Bjelica on the bench when teams go small. Bjelica was a revelation in the opener against the Lakers and made plays off of the dribble that no Warriors’ center has been able to do in the Steve Kerr era, but he can be exploited by small guards and teams that skip the ball around the perimeter, like the Sacramento Kings. Bjelica, oddly enough, has been pretty solid defending bigs and I think he’s mostly fine in pick and roll situations, but there will be more games this year when teams can run him off of the floor when they trot out multiple shooters that the Warriors have to close out on.
Steph Curry has had some great moments this year, but he’s yet to put together 4 straight quarters of excellent basketball. In spite of that, the Warriors have a 3-0 record, which is a testament to the depth this Warriors team has and the willingness of Steve Kerr to mix and match his rotations depending on the matchups. This Warriors team will need Steph Curry to play at an MVP level to contend, but it’s pretty cool that Steph Curry has been able to ease into this season.
What does this next week have in store for the Warriors?
The Warriors go to Oklahoma City to play the Thunder on Tuesday and then begin an 8-game homestand with games against the Grizzlies on Thursday and the Thunder on Saturday. Warriors’ rookie Jonathan Kuminga will sit out the first two games of the week, but he’s been cleared for full practice and Saturday night’s home game against the lowly Thunder might be a soft landing spot for him to make his NBA debut.
My prediction for this week
The Warriors will go 2-1. They’ll beat the Thunder both times, but this year’s Grizzlies are very underrated and have a young, but competent rotation of players who simply know how to play basketball. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with this year’s Warriors, and that seems as good a game as any for the Warriors to have a clunker.