Warriors week-in-review: 12/6 - 12/12
Weird lineup combos, the return of Andre Iguodala, Andrew Wiggins' three-point shooting, Jordan Poole finding different ways to contribute, and the finishing struggles of Steph Curry
Who did the Warriors play?
The Warriors played games at home against the Orlando Magic and Portland Trail Blazers before starting a road trip against the Philadelphia 76ers.
How did they do?
The Warriors went 2-1.
How did that happen?
The Warriors lazed through the first part of the game against the Orlando Magic before going on a big run to close the second quarter and outscored Orlando 21-7 in the final 5:31 minutes of the half. The Warriors’ offensive attack was quite balanced in the first half as they got 19 points from Steph Curry, 11 points from Andrew Wiggins, and 10 points each from Nemanja Bjelica and Jordan Poole. Bjelica’s scoring burst was a pleasant surprise — in a little more than 8 minutes, he took five shots and went 2/3 from deep and was a hub for playmaking in dribble hand-off sets. This sideline out-of-bounds play with Curry/Bjelica was particularly nice:
The Warriors started the third quarter with a 21-point lead and let the Magic get within 15 points early in the period, but then Andrew Wiggins took over. In the final six and a half minutes of the quarter, Wiggins went 5/6 from three and effectively put the game out of reach. Wiggins ended the game with a career-high 8 made threes and 28 points. You can see all of Wiggins’ made threes below:
The soft defense of an inexperienced Orlando Magic team allowed Steph Curry to pad his three-point totals en route to overtaking Ray Allen for the all-time record in made three-pointers and Curry went 7/13 from deep, including two made threes in meaningless pre-garbage time minutes. Curry only took three shots inside the three-point line in the Warriors’ 126-95 victory against the Orlando Magic, and this would turn out to be an omen — in the post-game press conference, Curry and Steve Kerr both mentioned the outrageous possibility that Curry might take enough threes the next game to break both the all-time record for threes made as well as the single game record for most threes made.
Naturally, Steph Curry came out chucking two nights later against an undermanned Portland Trail Blazers team. In the first quarter alone, Curry took 6 three-point shots and missed all four of his first attempts from deep. The possibility of Curry breaking three-point records against Portland loomed over an ugly first quarter in which the Warriors went 10/28 from the field and 3/15 from three and still managed to outscore their opponent 26-23. The Warriors were unable to gain significant separation from the Blazers in the second quarter as their ugly shooting continued to the tune of 7/22 from the field and 4/14 from deep. Curry took another 6 three-point shots in the second period, but he only went 2/6 from deep and tallied up an ugly 14 points on 5/13 shooting and 4/12 from three, which is a pretty hilariously unbalanced shot distribution.
The Warriors shot 60% from the field and 55.6% from three while outrebounding the Blazers 13 to 5 in the third quarter and yet, they only managed to get their lead up to 10 points by the end of the period. The Warriors threw the ball away 8 times in the third period, and Draymond Green made particularly confounding choices, two of which you can see below.
In the fourth quarter, the Warriors grew their lead as high as 16 points, but they never managed to properly put the Blazers away and give way to garbage time. To give you a sense of how flat and out of sorts the Warriors looked in the quarter: Steph only took two shots in the period while Andrew Wiggins and Nemanja Bjelica took four shots each and Otto Porter Jr. took three shots. Curry only took one three-pointer in the entire fourth period and because the Warriors never gained any sustained momentum, the closing lineup of Curry/Poole/Wiggins/Bjelica played until the final buzzer rang as the Warriors emerged with a sloppy 104-94 victory.
With Steph Curry now only 10 threes away from passing Ray Allen’s record, Saturday night’s road game against the Philadelphia 76ers was highly anticipated. All that hype was essentially for naught as Curry went 6/20 from the field and shot 3/14 from deep as the Warriors’ offense sputtered out in an ugly 93-102 loss. Fans expecting a night of explosive offensive heroics from the brother’s Curry and 76ers star center, Joel Embiid, were instead treated to a slogging battle of rugged defenses in the halfcourt. Here
Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green played attentive off-ball defense against Steph Curry, while Draymond Green got into early foul trouble guarding Joel Embiid, and Kevon Looney was tasked with guarding Embiid in the post. To Looney’s credit, he performed admirably and his defense played a big role in Embiid only going 1/5 from the field in a 23-22 first period. When Looney sat, the Warriors turned to Nemanja Bjelica, who matched up against Andre Drummond and got thoroughly outplayed. Bjelica played most of his minutes alongside Andre Iguodala, who missed the previous 10 games, but their minutes hurt the Warriors as they were -7 and -9 in their six minutes.
The Warriors slogged through most of a slow and physically grueling second quarter, but they went on a mini-run in the final minutes of the period, which got them within two points. You can see that run below:
Steph Curry finally hit his first three of the night at the 1:45 mark of the second quarter. You can see that three-pointer below. Take note of how well defended Curry is on this possession:
The explosive third-quarter run that has defined this years’ Warriors team and put away the 76ers in these two teams’ first matchup never came. Matisse Thybulle continued to make Steph Curry’s life hell on offense — this play sums it up well.
It was only when the Warriors went away from Curry and put the ball in Jordan Poole’s hands, that they actually got some momentum. In a five-minute span, Poole hit three shots from deep, Andrew Wiggins hit a three, and Kevon Looney got a dunk on a possession that began with a double team of Jordan Poole and the Warriors grew went up 11 points. But when Steph Curry checked out at the 3:13 mark, the Warriors’ offense fell apart and they did not score again in the third period.
The Warriors’ struggles continued into the fourth quarter when Bjelica and Iguodala played their final stint of minutes together and the Warriors were outscored 5-11 in the first two minutes and a half. Between the 8:14 and 4:36 mark of the fourth quarter, the 76ers scored 10 points to the Warriors’ 5 and took an 8-point lead that was virtually insurmountable.
The Warriors shot 5/19 in non-garbage time minutes in the fourth quarter — Steph Curry took and missed all but one of his 6 three-point shots, Otto Porter Jr. went 1/4 from deep, and Andre Iguodala missed two three-pointers. Meanwhile, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins had combined for 41 points on 15/26 shooting prior to the fourth quarter but got one shot attempt each in an ugly fourth quarter en route to the Warriors’ fifth loss of the season.
What lineups played lots of minutes this week?
Before we examine last week’s lineups, we’ll take a brief look at the 15 most used 5-man lineups from the entire season, courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:
Some more house cleaning: The NBA’s league-average ORTG has climbed with every week that I’ve done these week-in-review posts and we’re now up to 108.9 league-average ORTG — two weeks ago when I made my last post, the league-average ORTG was 108.2.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/Green/Looney: +15 net rating (112.5 ORTG) in 38 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/OPJ/Green: -14 net rating (96.7 ORTG) in 12 minutes.
Poole/GPII/Wiggins/OPJ/Green: +56.2 net rating (144.4 ORTG) in 8 minutes.
Curry/GPII/JTA/OPJ/Bjelica: -8.7 net rating (91.3 ORTG) in 8 minutes.
Curry/Lee/JTA/OPJ/Bjelica: +27.6 net rating (113.3 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Green/Looney: -8.3 net rating (75 ORTG) in 7 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Green: +108.3 net rating (166.7 ORTG) in 6 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins/JTA/Looney: +90.3 net rating (212.5 ORTG) in 5 minutes.
Curry/GPII/Lee/OPJ/Bjelica: +27.3 net rating (100 ORTG) in 5 minutes.
Curry/Lee/Iguodala/Green/Bjelica: -80.6 net rating (44 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/GPII/Iguodala/OPJ/Bjelica: -81.9 net rating (55.6 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Poole/GPII/Wiggins/OPJ/Looney: +23.2 net rating (137.5 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
Curry/Lee/JTA/Kuminga/OPJ: +22.2 net rating (100 ORTG) in 4 minutes.
There’s a staggering amount of negative lineups here for a team that won twice this week. Obviously, sample sizes play a role here — how else do you end up with ORTG’s north of 160? — but let’s parse through some of this. The Curry/Poole/Wiggins/OPJ/Green lineup has a +14 net rating on the season, so I don’t think it’s much cause for concern that they had a -14 net rating on the week. Still, it was utterly disorienting to see that lineup look so punchless and out of sorts on offense in its closing minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers, so I’d be curious to see that lineup play more minutes against high-level competition and see how it holds up.
There are two other lineups here that do, however, concern me. Curry/GPII/JTA/OPJ/Bjelica, which had a -8.7 net rating this week, now has a -9.7 net rating on the season and... it’s the Warriors’ third-most used lineup of the entire season. That lineup scores only slightly above league average (109.2 ORTG) and it has struggled to defend and has a 118.9 DRTG in 76 possessions this year. Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Green/Looney is now the Warriors’ 12th most-used lineup this year, and it’s been a mess on offense. This past week, they only had a 75 ORTG, which is horrible, and they’re at 97.1 ORTG on the entire season. When we filter for Jordan Poole lineups without Steph Curry, three of those five-most used lineups have an ORTG below 100. You can see those lineups here.
Poole/Wiggins/Green: +14.6 net rating (110.5 ORTG) in 81 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Wiggins: +16.3 net rating (117.8 ORTG) in 64 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Green: +14.9 net rating (112.5 ORTG) in 59 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Green: +14.3 net rating (112.7 ORTG) in 58 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/Looney: +17.9 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 55 minutes.
Wiggins/Green/Looney: +12 net rating (107.6 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Poole/Green/Looney: +12 net rating (107.6 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins/Looney: +21.6 net rating (121.6 ORTG) in 43 minutes.
Curry/Poole/Looney: +21.6 net rating (121.6 ORTG) in 43 minutes.
Curry/Green/Looney: +15 net rating (112.5 ORTG) in 38 minutes.
Curry/OPJ/Bjelica: -11 net rating (90.6 ORTG) in 29 minutes.
Poole/Wiggins/OPJ: +10.7 net rating (117.5 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Poole/OPJ/Green: +19.2 net rating (119.2 ORTG) in 23 minutes.
Wiggins/OPJ/Green: +17.4 net rating (115.4 ORTG) in 22 minutes.
Poole/Lee/Wiggins: +28 net rating (107.5 ORTG) in 20 minutes.
Curry/JTA/OPJ: +4.3 net rating (102.2 ORTG) in 20 minutes.
Variants of the starters were all, to various degrees of offensive firepower, overwhelmingly positive last week. Curry/OPJ/Bjelica is the only negative combo we have here, which isn’t much of a surprise considering how bad the Curry/GPII/JTA/OPJ/Bjelica combo has been recently. I think it’s curious that Poole/Lee/Wiggins has a +28 net rating, considering that Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Green/Looney had a -8.3 net rating and a brutal 75 ORTG last week. Perhaps the success of this combo can be attributed more to their outrageous success last week in the Curry/Poole/Lee/Wiggins/Green lineup.
Poole/Wiggins: +12.4 net rating (112.4 ORTG) in 97 minutes.
Poole/Green: +15.2 net rating (110.2 ORTG) in 85 minutes.
Wiggins/Green: +15 net rating (110.4 ORTG) in 82 minutes.
Curry/Wiggins: +13.5 net rating (115.7 ORTG) in 66 minutes.
Curry/Poole: +16.3 net rating (117.8 ORTG) in 64 minutes.
Curry/Green: +8.8 net rating (108 ORTG) in 63 minutes.
Wiggins/Looney: +17.9 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 55 minutes.
Poole/Looney: +17.9 net rating (117.9 ORTG) in 55 minutes.
Curry/OPJ: -8.7 net rating (93.3 ORTG) in 46 minutes.
Green/Looney: +12 net rating (107.6 ORTG) in 44 minutes.
Curry/Looney: +21.6 net rating (121.6 ORTG) in 43 minutes.
GPII/OPJ: +13.3 net rating (110.5 ORTG) in 34 minutes.
Curry/Bjelica: -21.8 net rating (83.8 ORTG) in 33 minutes.
Wiggins/OPJ: +3.6 net rating (113.2 ORTG) in 30 minutes.
Poole/OPJ: +7 net rating (116.4 ORTG) in 30 minutes.
OPJ/Bjelica: -16.8 net rating (87.9 ORTG) in 29 minutes.
GPII/Bjelica: -32.6 net rating (72.6 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Curry/Lee: +23.5 net rating (104.8 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
Curry/JTA: +10.5 net rating (113.8 ORTG) in 28 minutes.
The Nemanja Bjelica two-man combos were absolutely brutal this past week. That has not been the case throughout the duration of this season — Curry/Bjelica has a +27.4 net rating, OPJ/Bjelica has a +13 net rating, and GPII/Bjelica a +12.6 net rating. I’d suspect that some of the issues with Bjelica this past week have more to do with the fit of the five-man lineups he’s been in. As a general concept, pairing Steph Curry with a big man who can shoot and pass should always be a good thing. Likewise, pairing Gary Payton II with a big man who can spread the floor and operate as a passer while letting GPII operate on the interior and as a roll man, is also a good idea.
POOLE WATCH BABY!!!
Jordan Poole has been on an upward trend the past few weeks and it seems that he’s making adjustments and contributing in ancillary fashion when his shot isn’t falling. Against the Orlando Magic, Poole shot just 4/15 from the field, but he only took 6 three-point shots and had 7 rebounds and 7 assists. Poole was similarly cold against the Portland Trail Blazers and went 5/14 from the field, but he got to the line 9 times and had 3 steals and a block. Against the Philadelphia 76ers, Poole was the only Warriors who put together any type of sustained offense and it was his play that gave the Warriors their biggest lead of the night in the third quarter. Poole hit back-to-back pull-up threes, which led to the Sixers double-teaming him above the three-point line. This possession, which you can watch below, is a huge sign of respect and the read that Poole makes shows how his decision making has grown:
After a brutal start to the season on pull-up threes, Poole is shooting a fairly respectable 34.4% on 2.5 pull-up attempts a game. Prior to the month of December, Poole was shooting 27.7% on pull-up threes on 2.2 attempts and 37.1% on catch-and-shoot attempts. Poole’s catch-and-shoot percentage has dropped to 35.2%, which might be the result of him shooting a pretty blah 32.5% on open threes, as opposed to 40% on tightly guarded threes (0.8 attempts per game) and 36.2% on wide-open threes (4 attempts per game.)
Poole is still absolutely insane at the rim — he’s shooting 73.1% in the restricted area — and his in-between game is coming along nicely. Poole is now shooting 44% on non-restricted area paint shots and he’s a very solid 45.7% on mid-range shots this season. What’s even better is Poole’s shot distribution — he’s taken 128 shots in the paint, 210 threes, and only 35 mid-range jumpers this year.
Jordan Poole’s stats last week:
12/6 vs. the Magic: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, and 1 turnover on 4/15 FG, 2/6 3P, and 2/2 FT in 32:20 minutes.
12/8 vs. the Trail Blazers: 20 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 1 turnover on 5/14 FG, 2/10 3P, and 8/9 FT in 34:37 minutes.
12/11 vs. the 76ers: 23 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 3 turnovers on 7/14 FG, 4/9 3P, and 5/5 FT in 36:33 minutes.
Through 20 games this season, Jordan Poole is averaging 18.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.5 turnovers per game on 45/35/92 splits in 30.7 minutes a game.
Here’s a visual representation of Poole’s shot chart this season, courtesy of Positive Residual:
Assorted notes
I’m going to use bullet points here to put together some stray thoughts:
Andrew Wiggins’ three-point shooting is now up to 41.3%, which is nearly a four percentage point jump from the 37.5% he was shooting when I last made one of these posts. That’s quite good! Wiggins is now shooting 36% on pull-up threes, but he’s 43.1% on 4.2 catch-and-shoot attempts a game. Wiggins is shooting 49.2% on wide-open threes, of which he shoots 2.4 a game, and he’s railing it at 52.5% on threes from the left corner. Seems good!
Otto Porter Jr. has been a great pickup for the Warriors and as the season has progressed, it’s been nice to see him be more physically comfortable. I do suspect, however, that his inability to attack closeouts is intimately tied to the issues of the Curry/GPII/JTA/OPJ lineup. GPII and JTA are both non-shooters whose shots in the paint will come out of cuts and clever off-ball action, while Bjelica is only sometimes a willing shooter who probably drives more than he should. Otto Porter Jr.’s job is to shot the ball, and he’s been great in that capacity, but he’s only driving 0.5 times a game and he’s shooting 33.3% on drives this year. Only Chris Chiozza and Kevon Looney have a lower FG% on drives than Porter Jr. and to give you an idea of just how infrequently he gets to the hoop, he’s only taken 24 shots in the paint all season.
Draymond Green is shooting... 73.1% on drives this year and is finishing at a 78.3% rate in the restricted area, which helps make up for a career-low three-point attempt rate and career-high TOV% of 31.2%. Oh, and he’s doing stuff like this at the age of 31.
Steph Curry is shooting merely 48.9% on two-point field goals, which would be his lowest percentage since the 2012-13 season. Curry is shooting 58.4% in the restricted area and... 35.4% in the non-restricted area paint. His restricted area percentage is his worst since 2012-13 and his non-restricted area paint percentage hasn’t been this bad since his 2011-2012 season.
What does this next week have in store for the Warriors?
The Warriors play back-to-back road games against the Indiana Pacers (12-16 record) and the New York Knicks (12-15 record) on Monday and Tuesday night before a Friday night road game against the Boston Celtics (13-14 record) and a final road game on Sunday night against the Toronto Raptors (12-14 record).
My prediction for this week
The Warriors will beat the Pacers but lose to the Knicks and Celtics before beating the Raptors.